Wednesday, March 31, 2010

CRUDE OIL - BULL TREND ACCELERATION SIGNAL


Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION posture and has produced a big positive signal. The MKT is in "play" and aggressive action is expected off of technical signals. Anticipate opportunity and position management adjustments, as quick price action is likely.

82.43 is the Inflection Pivot keeping the contract in an aggressive Bull posture.


On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of the 84.14 and 85.28 resistance levels. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline folowing a reversal signal and it more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so in either scenerio keep position management tight. Avoid SELL FADE strategies even with confirmation, as this is more likely a lid for a BREAKOUT BUY strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below the 83.00 support pivot are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional reisstance.


On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous sessions low point. BREAKOUT strategies above 84.14 resistance should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in strucutre. BUY FADE strategies off 83.00 and 82.43 are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.

Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert to recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades consider taking the next sell signal anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher it should just go. If not there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment.


JS

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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

USDJPY - TRUTH OR DARE


Technically the USDJPY is in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION posture after producing a big positive signal. The MKT is in "play" and aggressive action is expected off of technical signals. Anticipate opportunity and position management adjustments, as quick price action is likely.

The 9207 Inflection Pivot is the low point for any pull back if the positive signal is going to remain in force.

On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major resistance levels at 9379 and 9548. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline folowing a reversal signal and it more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so in either scenerio keep position management tight. Avoid SELL FADE strategies even with confirmation, as this is more likely a lid for a BREAKOUT BUY strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 9243 and 9207 are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional resistance at 9311.

On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous sessions low point. BREAKOUT strategies above 9379 should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in strucutre. BUY FADE strategies off the 9243 and 9207 support levels are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.

Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert to recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades consider taking the next sell signal anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher it should just go. If not there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment.

JS

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Monday, March 29, 2010

GOLD - POSITIVE TRANSITION ABOVE 1103.1

Technically the MKT is in NEUTRAL TRANSITION and difficult trading conditions are expected. The MKT has produced an strong positive signal which should keep the MKT firm today if the signal is valid. If the integrity of the prior session's high remains intact a return to a sideways trend less trade is likely. Roll with any new strength and leverage up if good risk parameters present themselves. The potential to get in at the beginning of a new move higher is real.

Expectations are for the MKT to remain firm above the 1103.1 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off the 1118.5 and 1126.2 major resistance levels. Avoid this strategy on higher levels as any new strength has the potential to be the beginning of a move. If the integrity of the previous session high remains intact FADE strategies can be accepted at 1118.5 with tight profit target objectives. Use SELL BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive pull-back against 1110.8 after a confirm break in the positive momentum. Only take this trade if the previous session high point remains intact.

On the BUY side be more aggressive after the previous session high is taken out. Not that this is a pre-condition but should be noted as a confirmation of strength. BREAKOUT strategies above 1118.5 should just "go" so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any negative reaction off an unsuccessful upside BREAKOUT after a support level is confirmed. Use a REVERSAL strategy to leverage up after the MKT gets back above the original breakout point. If the integrity of the previous session high remains intact, avoid REVERSAL strategies as expectations are that the "positive" signal is going to follow through it should do so straight away and any break momentum is a negative signal that the MKT is going to return to its neutral posture. FADE strategies off 1103.1 are recommended early in the session or near the end. The positive signal will either play out from the get go or will make its move in the latter stages of the trading session.

Note: This is a dangerous emotional trading environment. MKT reactions to go a little further that you expect in either direction so anticipate this in your position and risk management.

JS

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Sunday, March 28, 2010

EuroSTOXX - NEUTRAL POSITIVE SHIFT



Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE position with a positive bias above 2856.0 Inflection Pivot. The MKT has produced a positive signal and if it is going to influence today's session the MKT will maintain a trade above this price point.

On the SELL side BREAKOUT strategies below 2856.0 are aggressive and but do have potential to sharply turn sentiment back to the opposing digestive extreme. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding structure most of the day. If the MKT digests prior to making a negative move, it is more likely a squeeze on the longs to FADE. SELL FADE strategies against 2890. are aggressive as well and if they are going to work, should do so on the initial test of resistance. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a higher trade. SELL REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the session initial major resistance levels only as the MKT potential for positive trend shift. The probability is to the upside today so don't get stubborn selling strength.

On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above the 2890.0 resistance pivot should just "go" and not look back, so keep risk parameters tight. FADE strategies off the 2873.0 Directional after positive breakout signals are good opportunities as well but expectation should be for the MKT to quickly move back above violated resistance. If the trade just "hangs around", it is likely a signal that more digestive action is coming and a retest of support should be expected. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at the 2856.0 Inflection Pivot, targeting the opposing digestive resistance. Below this price point wait for 2nd or 3rd test before entering off support rather than stepping in front.

Note: The MKT is in neutral so "sloppy" conditions with "false signals" should be anticipated. Have a plan for any squeeze. Don't get stubborn, however, if the MKT starts to hold structure and gets into trend mode as the contract may just be expanding its digestive parameters producing a one way trade into the close and new extreme.


JS


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Friday, March 26, 2010

Trading Room Performance

JS Services has recently started a "live" trade room to support its products and the CLEARBOX Trading approach. The Trading Room is educational with "live" practical application of JS Services Trading tools and CLEARBOX trading strategies.

Below is a sample of the CLEARBOX systems as managed by our Risk Manager.

JS Services TF BASIC GURU - RUSSELL2000 Index March 25, 2010 Performance

JS

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Twitter Alert Performance

March 25, 2010 was an eventful day for the US Equity Indices. The following are the results from a couple of my tweets.















DOW FUTURES Mar 25, 2010 Price Map Overlay

SP500 mAR 25, 2010 Price Map Overlay

JS

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Thursday, March 25, 2010

SP500 Futures Index - Set to Swing


The JUN'10 SP500 Futures contract is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE technical state after an unsuccessful press to new move highs. This MKT is set to churn with 1176-1146.75 the current digestive extremes.

1146.75 is the session Inflection Pivot and the low point for any big sideways trade.

On the SELL side avoid BREAKOUT strategies below 1157.50 but rather FADE a positive reaction after a negative breakdown signal against 1166.75. REVERSAL strategies at 1176 and 1185.25 are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any FADE trades should get confirmation or an exhaustion or turning point signal before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all sales as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 1166.75 and 1176 are valid but should expect a laborious trade. Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit giveback. FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off 1157.50 and the 1153.25-1146.75 support band. The probability is to the upside today but is not a day to press it.

Note: The MKT is in neutral and is more likely to go nowhere fast. Don't get stubborn, however, if the MKT starts to get into trend mode as the contract may just be expanding its digestive parameters producing a one way trade into the close and new extreme. Be more aggressive accepting BUY signals off 1153.25 and down to 1146.75 as this is the base for any new advance.

JS

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Wednesday, March 24, 2010

US 30YR T-BOND Futures - BEAR TREND EXTREME


Technically the MKT has produce a negative signal into the EXTREME of a BEAR TREND move and will need to hold structure if it is going to maintain an aggressive sell posture. Don't press it. Although the MKT is vulnerable a break in momentum has the potential to spark a sharp corrective rally.

Key off the 116-27 Inflection Pivot as the structure turning point.

On the SELL side downside BREAKOUT strategies below the 115-15 support pivot are valid and should continue to hold negative structure if they are going to extend. Get in to these trades sooner (higher) than later (lower) as new weakness is expected to be stop and go. A more conservative strategy is to FADE a positive reaction after a negative breakdown signal and even better to wait for a negative REVERSAL off this corrective rise rather than stepping in front of it. FADE and REVERSAL are recommended at 116-27, 117-16 and 118-05 especially after a sharp corrective rise. The MKT is negative but is also extended and the probability of a corrective rise is high. Wait for an exhaustive signals or confirmation to jump on.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 116-27 should have aggressive trail stops and tighter profit targets. There is a good chance for a corrective turn but profit targets and position management should be tight as this is more likely a rally to sell. If you get on, ride it until structure is broken and then look to go the other way. BUY REVERSAL strategies off the 115-15 and 114-24 support level will provide opportunity but will work best after a sharp trade lower verses a steady decline. Expectations are for no follow through not a reversal of sentiment. Keep risk management and profit targets tight to reduce giveback as the underlying technical foundation today is negative. Avoid FADE BUYS as the negative trend remains enforce with sell FADE opportunities the better place to step out.

Note: Just because the MKT is extended does not mean it cannot get more extended. Any long ideas should wait for a signal don't force one.

JS

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Tuesday, March 23, 2010

EuroStoxx 50 Index - Trying to Make a Difference


The EUREX Jun'10 EUROSTOXX 50 Futures contract is trying to make a difference and will need to sustain a trade above the 2444.0 Inflection Pivot to keep its spirits up pressing resistance at 2871.0. Be patient. If the MKT is going to fall back into a digestive trade it will reject from here. A held violation is needed to confirm a fresh advance targeting 2925.0 on any new interest.


Trading below 2844.0 puts the MKT back in a soft digestive trade down to 2817. Keep it tight. If the underlying positive momentum is going to resume it will do so from here. If not sentiment turns negative targeting 2763.0 on any negative turn of events.


JS


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Monday, March 22, 2010

DOW FUTURES - Holding firm above 10652


Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND posture and has just produced a major technical signal in the direction of the trend. If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long.


10652 is the Inflection Pivot keeping the aggressive buy posture in play.


On the SELL side BREAKOUT strategies below 10652 are a low probability but valid. Risk little and go for a lot. If the MKT is going to turn sour, it should be quick and relentless. Avoid FADE strategies as the MKT has just produced a major buy signal and fresh gains are expected. REVERSAL strategies as well are not recommended, as any resistance level violation that cannot be held is more likely a squeeze for the longs, which can quickly turn positive.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is aggressively bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, leverage up using the squeeze low as a stop, expecting a quick reaction back above your original entry. De-leverage unless you have confluence with other indicators or like MKTs. 10778 is the hurdle for any new advance.

Note: The MKT has produced a big positive technical signal and should immediately go higher, after at most, one pullback. A laborious trade and the MKT may wait till the end of the session to make its move.


JS

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Japanese Yen - Time to Play a Card


Technically the MKT is in NEUTRAL TRANSITION and difficult trading conditions are expected. The MKT has produced a negative technical signal which must be confirmed below the 11042 Inflection Pivot if the signal is valid. Roll with any new weakness and leverage up if good risk parameters present themselves. The potential to get in at the beginning of a new move lower is real. A held trade above 11042 and a quick positive shift is expected.


On the SELL side be more aggressive after the previous session low is taken out. Not that this is a pre-condition but should be noted as a confirmation of weakness. BREAKOUT strategies below 11042 and the 10989 support pivot should just "go" so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any positive reaction off an unsuccessful downside BREAKOUT. Use a REVERSAL strategy to leverage up back under the original failure point. If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, avoid REVERSAL strategies as any break in the negative momentum is a positive signal that the MKT is going to return to its neutral posture. FADE strategies against the 11095 resistance pivot are recommended early in the session or near the end. The negative signal will either play out from the get go or will weigh on the MKT in the latter stages of the trading session.

On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels [11042 and 10989] at or near the previous session low point. Avoid this strategy on lower levels as any new weakness has the potential to be the beginning of a move. If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact FADE strategies can be accepted at or near this inflection point on the initial test with tight profit target objectives. If the MKT has already had a reaction off this support area avoid this strategy. Use BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a negative pull-back off the 11042 Inflection Pivot after a confirm break in the negative momentum. Only take this trade if the previous session low point remains intact. Otherwise this will be a SELL REVERSAL opportunity.

Note: Transitional trading conditions are difficult and can be full of false stops and starts. Be ready for a move but be prepared to work for it.


JS

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Thursday, March 18, 2010

EURUSD - NEGATIVE SIGNAL


Technically the EURUSD FOREX market is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION technical posture. The MKT has produced a big negative signal and any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop sweep" if the negative moemtnum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.


13696 Inflection Pivot is the lid keep the currency vulnerable.


On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below 13696 and the previous sessions high point. BREAKOUT strategies below the 13530 support pivot may need to be "worked" as the MKT is on edge and will be emotional, producing some starts and stops before it drops. FADE strategies against 13696 and 13779 are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.


On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above 13696 are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE off the 13530 support pivot should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.


Note: The MKT is on edge and is vulnerable to a big drop. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.


JS


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Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Heating Oil J'10 - Positive Signal needs Confirmation

Technically the MKT is in a DIGESTIVE BULL TREND and is flirting with a shift into a more aggressive positive position. Look for excuses to get long but respect the digestive nature and avoid pressing any position.


The 21071 Inflection Pivot is the price point to watch to keep the Positive signal in play, with 21443 the hurdle to confirm a new advance.

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies and use a REVERSAL instead. The MKT is excited but has yet to confirm any new advance. Expectations are that any false positive breakout signal will be met with a sharp negative reaction. BREAKOUT strategies are a lower probability but are valid and in line with a reversal scenario. If the MKT has already produced a false positive signal and is holding negative reversal structure, this strategy has potential. Expectations are that any negative BREAKOUT should just go and with the MKT staying under pressure into the close and expanding the digestive range. Anticipate a positive turn and consider reversing off lower support structure.

On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies. BREAKOUT strategies have the potential to run. If so, they will just "go" and not look back. Any stop and go action and any profits should be realized as it is more likely the MKT will be setting up a re-test of support to FADE before it can extend higher. FADE and REVERSAL strategies should work off initial major support and only provide one opportunity. Repeated tests or base building and it is more likely the MKT is going to search for its lower digestive extreme rather than resume a positive course.

Note: The MKT has produced a positive signal but is not confirmed. Be ready for it but if it does not materialize, beware of a negative reaction. Don't get caught fading a break that continues to hold structure as the MKT may be defining its lower digestive extreme and will most likely find it after it hits your last sell stop.

JS

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Swiss Franc - Positive Transition

The JUN'10 Swiss Franc contract produced a positive transition signal last night which remains in effect above the .9472 Inflection Pivot. This played today and was alerted in my Tweet at @ 7:30am cst
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JS

March 17 2010

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

10YR T-NOTE - Positive Signal needs confirmation


Technically the MKT is in a DIGESTIVE BULL TREND and is flirting with a shift into a more aggressive positive position with all trading above the 117-000 Inflection Pivot. Look for excuses to get long above here but respect the digestive nature and avoid pressing any position.

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies against 117-150 and 117-225 and use a REVERSAL instead. The MKT is excited but has yet to confirm any new advance. Expectations are that any false positive breakout signal will be met with a sharp negative reaction. BREAKOUT strategies below 117-000 are a lower probability but are valid and in line with a reversal scenario. If the MKT has already produced a false positive signal and is holding negative reversal structure, this strategy has potential. Expectations are that any negative BREAKOUT should just go and with the MKT staying under pressure into the close and expanding the digestive range. Anticipate a positive turn and consider reversing off lower support structure.

On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies. BREAKOUT strategies above 117-150 have the potential to run. If so, they will just "go" and not look back. Any stop and go action and any profits should be realized as it is more likely the MKT will be setting up a re-test of support to FADE before it can extend higher. FADE and REVERSAL strategies should work off 117-000 and only provide one opportunity. Repeated tests or base building and it is more likely the MKT is going to search for its lower digestive extreme rather than resume a positive course.

Note: The MKT has produced a positive signal but is not confirmed. Be ready for it but if it does not materialize, beware of a negative reaction. Don't get caught fading a break that continues to hold structure as the MKT may be defining its lower digestive extreme and will most likely find it after it hits your last sell stop.


JS

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British Pound - Squeeze Play

The MAR'10 British Pound futures contract is tighening the collers on a few Bears. Key of the 1.5198 Inflection Pivot for the true test of the current strength.
JS

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Monday, March 15, 2010

SP500 Index -Corrective Technical Signal

The technical structure of the Mar'10 S&P500 Index futures contract has downshifted into a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE. Expectations are for more difficult trading action in front of the roll with the 1127 Inflection Pivot the low point for any setback.


On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies against the 1151.75 resistance pivot until after the previous session low point or 1138.25 level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 1138.25 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at the 1131.50 and 1127 support targets. The trade is counter trend so avoid any negative commitments.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies at 1138.25 and 1131.50, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. The best buy FADE will be at the 1127 Inflection Pivot today. BREAKOUT strategies above the 1151.75 resistance can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction down to the 1145 Directional after a positive breakout signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.
Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the negative action may be a 1-day event with the positive trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain hard pressed and provide little or no relief.


JS

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Canadian$ - Time to PLay a Card

The MAR'10 Canadian$ futures contract will need to stabilize above the 9765 support inflection pivot if the underlying positive momentum is going to remian in control.





JS



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Thursday, March 11, 2010

Japanes Yen - Vulnerable below 11113

The JUN'10 Japanese Yen contract spun its wheels after Wednesday's negative signal stabilizing into a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE trade. Key off the 11113 Inflection Pivot today. Below here the currency will remain vulnerable to the offer.


On the SELL side BREAKOUT strategies below the 11005 support pivot are aggressive and should be entered sooner [higher] than later [lower]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding structure most of the day. If the MKT digests prior to making a negative move, it is more likely a squeeze on the longs to FADE. SELL FADE strategies against 11077 are aggressive as well and if they are going to work, should do so on the initial test of resistance. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a higher trade up to the 11113 Inflection Pivot. SELL REVERSAL strategies are recommended off either resistance level.


On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above the 11077 resistance pivot should just "go" and not look back, so keep risk parameters tight. 11113 is the roll short target. Only above here does sentiment shift positive. FADE strategies off the 11041 Directional after positive breakout signals are good opportunities as well but expectation should be for the MKT to quickly move back above violated resistance. If the trade just "hangs around", it is likely a signal that more digestive action is coming and a retest of support should be expected. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at or above the previous session low point or the 11005 support level, targeting 11077.


Note: The MKT is in neutral so "sloppy" conditions with "false signals" should be anticipated. Have a plan for any squeeze. Don't get stubborn, however, if the MKT starts to hold structure and gets into trend mode as the contract may just be expanding its digestive parameters producing a one way trade into the close and new extreme.


JS


This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.


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Japanese Yen - Negative Signal

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION position and is vulnerable to the offer with all trading below the 11127 Inflection Pivot. Any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop squeeze" if the negative moemtnum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.


On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous sessions high point. BREAKOUT strategies below the 11021 support pivot should just "go", so do not risk much. FADE strategies against the 11127 resistance inflection pivot are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off the 11021 support pivot as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above 11127 are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE strategies off the 11021 support pivot should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is in an aggressive sell posture. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.

JS

This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

FTSE 100 - Negative Transition Signal

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL TRANSITION with sentiment leaning negative and flirting with a negative turn. Key off the 5548.0 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. If the Index is going to fight off the negative sentiment it will maintain a trade above here. If not this may the leader in a sentiment shift.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current positive to negative transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on BREAKOUT strategies below 5548.0 as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for positive reactions after a negative signal to FADE into against the 5583.0 Directional after a break under 5548.0. The trade should be fluid with the MKT immediately giving background after any positive squeeze. Notable resistance at 5618.0 will contain the Neutral forecast.

On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies off 5548.0 until after the previous session high point or 5618.0 resistance has been taken out to confirm a break in the negative signal. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy off 5548.0. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a positive shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 5618.0 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should use the same aggressive position management as a REVERSAL. Risk less go for more.

Note: The MKT is trying to shift from a positive to a negative trend position. False starts and stops should be expected and position management adjustment anticipated, as quick momentum turns are the norm in this technical environment.

JS

This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.
STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html
For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Webinar Event - Strategy Based Trading tools

Webinar Event – Optimize Your Strategy by Defining Market Structure

Date: Tuesday, March 9thTime: 3:30 pm Central Time (4:30 pm ET) Speaker: John Slazas, JS Services




By understanding the market’s technical structure you can optimize your strategy selection by aligning your expectations and strategy criteria to the current technical state. This will allow you to better anticipate opportunity and provide higher confidence in trade execution.

Join John Slazas for this online event introducing JS Services Strategy Based Trading Tools, which define the framework of the market’s current technical state. John will demonstrate how to use this structure to optimize your strategy execution including position and size management.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

SOYBEANS K'10 - BEAR TREND ACCELERATION


Technically the MAY'10 SOYBEANS contract is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION and flirting with the lower extreme. The MKT has produced a big negative signal and any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop sweep" if the negative moemtnum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.

Key off the 940-4 Inflection Pivot for the sentiment bias of the session.


On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below 948-2. BREAKOUT strategies below 932-6 may need to be "worked" as the MKT is on edge and will be emotional, producing some starts and stops before it drops. FADE strategies against 940-4 and 948-2 are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above 940-4 and the 948-2 resistance pivot are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE off the 932-6 support pivot should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is on edge and is vulnerable to a big drop. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.


JS


This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.


For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

10yr T-NOTES H'10 - POSITIVE SHIFT

The underlying technical sentiment has shifted positive without the support off any price appreciation. Head fake in front of the figure or foreshadowing of things to come.
Currently the market is in a DIGESTIVE BULL TREND.

For now the positive sentiment maintains the bias above the 117-005 Inflection Pivot with 117-175 the lid for the current digestive trade. This is the trigger for any shift into a Bull Trend mode targeting 118-035 and 118-305. A failure from 117-005 negates this technical state and shifts sentiment targeting 116-11.



Note: The MKT has produced a positive signal but is not confirmed. Be ready for it but if it does not materialize, beware of a negative reaction. Don't get caught fading a break that continues to hold structure as the MKT may be defining its lower digestive extreme and will most likely find it after it hits your last sell stop.

JS

This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Canadian Dollar H'10 - BULL TREND ACCELERATION

Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION posture and has produced a big positive signal which will remain in play above the 9530 Inflection Pivot. The MKT is in "play" and aggressive action is expected off of technical signals. Anticipate opportunity and position management adjustments, as quick price action is likely.

On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of the 9701 and 9758 major resistance levels. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline folowing a reversal signal and it more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so in either scenerio keep position management tight. Avoid SELL FADE strategies even with confirmation, as this is more likely a lid for a BREAKOUT BUY strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below the 9587 support pivot are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against the 9644 Directional reisstance.

On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the 9530 Inflection Pivot. BREAKOUT strategies above 9701 should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in strucutre. BUY FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies off the 9587 and 9530 support levels as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.

Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert to recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades consider taking the next sell signal anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher it should just go. If not there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment.


JS


This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.


For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Monday, March 1, 2010

WHEAT May'10 - Corrective Signal in Play

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT, however the negative signal wilol maintain the controls below the 517-2 Inflection Pivot.


On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies Against 509-6 and 517-2 until after the previous session low point has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 494-6 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at the 487-2 and 479-6 support targets. The trade is counter trend so avoid any negative commitments.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies at the 494-6 support pivot, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 509-6 and 517-2 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal off the 502-2 Directional as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the negative action may be a 1-day event with the positive trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain hard pressed and provide little or no relief.


JS

This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.


For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.