Monday, December 31, 2012

5YR TREASURY NOTES

Today's MARKET STATE for 5YR TREASURY NOTES: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
 
-The MKT is in a digestive position with a negative technical bias.  On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT, and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points.  DP SELL BREAKOUT strategies should just “go” and not look back.  DIR FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well.  If the trade just “hangs around” after a breakdown signal, it is likely that more digestive action is to come.  Be more aggressive with UP FADE and REVERSAL strategies and resistance inflection points at or against the previous session high point.
-On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should hold structure if they are good.  DP BUY FADE strategies are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support.  Repeated tests are more likely to give way to a lower trade.  BUY REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the DP only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift.  The probability is to the downside today so don’t get stubborn buying breaks.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for FV





Wrap Up
- In a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state, our expectation is for a sideways trading session with the upper and lower boundaries at the UP and DP within our Price Map.  However, if the market does breakout of this Critical Range, our expectation is for a move of two APMD.  Today in the 5YR TREASURY NOTES we had a downside breakout from the DP generating a SELL DP BREAKOUT signals which was confirmed by price action under the R Level.  With this strategy, our expected target is the DT2 and, as you can see, the market did in fact make it all the way down to our price target at 124'045.