Thursday, December 27, 2012

DOW FUTURES

Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

-The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult “choppy” trade.  On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets.  The probability is to the downside but is not a day to press it.
-On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR.  DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as “sloppy” trading conditions are expected.  Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing.  Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM










Wrap Up
- The slight negative bias in our NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state was reiterated by the R Level being at the upper end of our Critical Range, the UP.  This signaled traders to look to get short the market from below this level.  Around 9:00 AM the market began to sell off sharply from our DIR.  When price broke through our DP just before 9:30, traders were able to get short the market with a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy.  With these breakout strategies, we expect to get a move of two APMD (Average Price Map Distance), in this case, the DT2.  The market shot right down to our DT1 where it found support briefly, before continuing down and forming a double bottom formation right at the DT2 level.  Today's action serves as proof that defining market state, structure and strategy is essential to successful trading.