Wednesday, June 16, 2010

NASDAQ 100 Index Futures: FUN AND GAMES


Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however buying breaks above the 1880.50 Inflection Pivot is the best bet. 1880.25 is the low point for any weakness today if the underlying posiitve momentum is going to keep pace.

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1st major resistance level at 1913.50. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its negative signal any stength is just a "head fake " before it follows through. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 1880.50 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is corrective and the underlying positive tone must be respected.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies off 1880.50, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 1913.50 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture with the expectation that the Bull Trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positve breakout signal at 1897 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to move in either direction. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it.

JS

Learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach using CLEARBOX automated strategies! For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Eurex BUND Futures - VULNERABLE


Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND but in a DIGESTIVE posture. The MKT has produced a negative signal but has yet to confirm a shift into trend mode. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT but selling strength is the better opportunity below the 12849 Inflection Pivot. If the negative signal is oing to follow through this will be the high point for any positive push today.

On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 12808 and 12767 should just "go" with the expectation of a clean breakout signal into a new trend. FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well but expectation should be for the MKT to quickly move back under the failed support. If the trade becomes laborous it is more likely a signal that more digestive action is coming and a retest of resistance should be expected. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at 12849 targeting the opposing digestive support at 12767.
On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 12849 are aggressive and should be entered sooner [lower] than later [higher]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding strucutre most of the day. If the MKT digests prior to making a positive move it is more likely a short squeeze to FADE. BUY FADE strategies off the 12767 support are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a lower trade. BUY REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the session initial major support only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift. The probability is to the downside today so don't get stubborn buying breaks.

Note: The MKT has produced a negative signal and is flirting with a turn for the worse. If it does not follow through on any new weakness a positive "reversal" is a likely outcome with a retest of the digestive resistance.

JS

Learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach using CLEARBOX automated strategies! For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.