Thursday, April 15, 2010

30YR US T-Bond - TRYING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE


Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE position with a positive bias above the 116-07 Inflection Pivot. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT but buying weakness above here is the better opportunity.

On the SELL side BREAKOUT strategies below 116-07 or the 115-18 support pivot are aggressive and should be entered sooner [higher] than later [lower]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding structure most of the day. If the MKT digests prior to making a negative move, it is more likely a squeeze on the longs to FADE. SELL FADE strategies against the 116-28 resistance pivot are aggressive as well and if they are going to work, should do so on the initial test of resistance. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a higher trade. SELL REVERSAL strategies at 116-28 are recommended off the session initial major resistance levels only as the MKT potential for positive trend shift. The probability is to the upside today so don't get stubborn selling strength.

On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above the 116-28 resistance pivot should just "go" and not look back, so keep risk parameters tight. FADE strategies off the 116-07 level after positive breakout signals are good opportunities as well but expectation should be for the MKT to quickly move back above violated resistance. If the trade just "hangs around", it is likely a signal that more digestive action is coming and a retest of support should be expected. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at the 115-18 support pivot or above the previous session low point, targeting the opposing digestive resistance at 116-28. Below the previous session low point, entering after the 2nd or 3rd test of support is recommended over stepping in front.

Note: The MKT is in neutral so "sloppy" conditions with "false signals" should be anticipated. Have a plan for any squeeze. Don't get stubborn, however, if the MKT starts to hold structure and gets into trend mode as the contract may just be expanding its digestive parameters producing a one way trade into the close and new extreme.

JS

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