CRUDE OIL Futures - REACHING

- Technically the MKT has produced a positive signal into the upper extreme and will need to hold structure if it is going to avoid a drop back into a digestive trade. 89.50 and 89.92 are the immediate targets that have the potential to derail the current strength with the 86.07 Inflection Pivot the low point for any negative turn of events.

JS



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CRUDE OIL Futures - CORRECTIVE SIGNAL

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big positive signal against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT, however the positive signal will remain in play above the 70.23 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies at the 72.17 resistance pivot, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the integrity of the resistance before executing a sale against it. BREAKOUT strategies below 70.23 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a negative posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a positive "squeeze" reaction after a negative breakdown signal against the 71.20 Directional as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies off 70.23 until after the previous session high point or major resistance level has been taken out to confirm a positive shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any negative signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 72.17 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE short at resistance targets. The trade is counter trend so avoid any positive commitments.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the positive action may be a 1-day event with the negative trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain firm and not look back.

JS

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Brent Crude Oil - Is that it?

BRENT CRUDE OIL fell just shy of the resistance target published in the May 21,2009 post.

Is that it?

The MKT had a nice rebuke but it is too early to tell if the underlying positive momentum is at risk. Reactions should always be expected at major areas of inflection. This reaction for now is keeping the buyers honest with their leverage. Expect the 68.00 area to be pivotal. Only under 66.60 does sentiment shift negative target the 58.80-58.40 support band initially.



If the MKT is bad it should just go. Any digestive action is a positive signal. A breach of 71.43 is a sign that the MKT wants to make another run at the 74.10 target resistance area if not 78.90.



JS



This commentary supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.* The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

BRENT CRUDE OIL - Position Management Using the Price Map

BRENT CRUDE – Initial Target Attained

In my May 21, 2009 post when the JUL’09 BRENT CRUDE OIL Contract was trading @ $59 the expectation was for a rally up to $68 or $74 oil. Today the contract topped out at $68.65, after a reversal signal and potential short-term top.

The rally may or may not be over but by incorporating JS Services Price Map and MarketColor analysis into your trading plan for this opportunity you would have improved your performance and reduced any profit give-back by exiting or establishing a hedge to your long position at the $66.35 level.

Here is how.


JS Services is published each trading session at 12am(cst). In the June 2, 2009 Brent Crude Oil release the service defines the MKTs Technical Ste in its Highlight Comment, which today was “BULL TREND EXTREME”.

In a BULL TREND EXTREME technical posture expectations are for either an exhaustive reversal or digestion.

The Price Map defines the key Inflection Points for the session with the UP [Upside Pivot] being the key resistance point to key off.


In today’s early action the MKT produced a REVERSAL signal off this Inflection Point confirming our expectations for a sell opportunity.

At the regular session opening the MKT produced another negative signal breaking structure below the DIR [Directional level] and then confirmed that break in structure by failure from the DP [Downside Pivot].

Will the negative signal follow through or is today’s action just a pause for the cause? No one knows but the Price Map will allow you to capture the opportunity whatever the direction.

JS

BRENT CRUDE OIL - EXCITABLE

The BRENT CRUDE [ICE] JUL'09 contract is heating up and will maintain an aggressive buy posture above the 58.82 Inflection Pivot.

61.98 is the initial resistance that is expected to challenge any new buying. How the MKT reacts here will gauge the next move. A violation and Daily close above 62.38 and it is just a matter of time before we see $68 and $74 oil.

A rejection from 61.98 and things can get a little slippery with a big sideways trade. 58.82 will remain pivotal but 55.91 is the support inflection pivot.

If the current strength struggles below 58.82, 55.91 is expected to prove the next bounce.

JS