Today's MARKET STATE for WHEAT **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.
Wrap Up
- Today was a pivotal day in the MAY '13 WHEAT futures market. With the R Level at the DIR in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state, the market is "on the fence" and has the potential to transition into a new move, or go nowhere and digest within the Critical Range. When the market began to sell off sharply from the UP, our RSI indicator warned that the market was EXTREMELY OVERSOLD at our key INFLECTION PIVOT (R). This allowed traders to get long the market from the DIR targeting the UP. The market held support at the DIR R and eventually traded up to the top of our critical range at the UP.