Monday, April 1, 2013

CRUDE OIL

Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME**

- The MKT will need to spark some excitement today if it is to avoid falling back into a digestive trade.
- On the Sell side REVERSAL strategies off the UP, UT1 or UT2 will work best as any unsustained positive signal is expected to provide a sharp negative reaction. FADE strategies off the UP are valid but will work better after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area. BREAKOUT strategies below the DP are a lower probability and should be used as a signal for a FADE strategy against the DIR.
- On the Buy side FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the DP, especially if the previous session low point remains intact.  BREAKOUT strategies should hold structure after a resistance breach if they are going to follow through. Any break in momentum and the market will be vulnerable to a drop back into a digestive trade.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CL












 


Wrap Up

Today in the CRUDE OIL futures market, the MC Value of +3 produced a NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME Market State.  If the market is going to avoid falling back into a DIGESTIVE posture, it should just "go" and not look back after trading above the R LEVEL at the UP.  Below this level, the market is prone to a digestive session.  As highlighted in out market commentary, BUY DP FADE and REVERSALS are recommended.  The market put in an intra-day double bottom formation at our minor level 95.94 while the RSI showed underlying strength as it put in a HIGHER low on the 2nd bottom.  This was our "tell" to accept the BUY DP REVERSAL strategy targeting the DIR.