Thursday, May 6, 2010

10YR T-NOTE Futures - BULL TREND EXTREME


** BULL TREND EXTREME **- Technically the MKT is at the positive extreme and is flirting with an exhaustive turn. Keep your dancing shoes on this Technical State has the potential to get a little wild.


Key off the 120-06 Inflection Pivot today for an indication of the session tone. All trading below here keeps the contract vulnerable to a retreat.

On the SELL side accept REVERSAL strategies off 120-25 and 121-215 resistance levels should work on the initial break in momentum if they are going to. BREAKOUT strategies below 119-19 are aggressive but do have the potential to be the start of a corrective turn, so look to get in early on the initial break in structure. Lock in any unrealized profit on these strategies, as the underlying momentum remains positive. 118-13 and 117-15 are the lower targets.

- On the BUY side accept FADE signals off the 119-00 and 118-13 major support levels after the 2nd or 3rd confirmation. The MKT is extended and may need to digest a bit before it produces a positive push. REVERSAL strategies are valid off all major support inflection points as well as the 119-19 support pivot, with the expectation that the underlying positive tone will try to assert itself. The outlook after a REVERSAL signal will be more firm digestive than positive trend. BREAKOUT strategies above 120-06 and 120-25 should just go, so keep stops and position management tight. If not the likelihood of a sideways trade developing is high.
Note: The MKT is extended and any push to new move highs is not expected to be sustained. Emotional trading conditions are expected.

JS

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