Tuesday, October 16, 2012

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE for AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: **BEAR TREND**

- The MKT is in a soft neutral position. On the SELL side UP REVERSAL and FADE strategies with confirmation will be a better option over downside Breakouts, as selling into corrective reactions is the best position. The MKT remains negative but be patient as to not get caught FADING a corrective rise all the way up. DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid opportunities but look to take profits on emotional drops versus getting trail stopped on corrective pull backs.
- On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies should be looked at as a "one-shot" deal. Either the MKT railroads higher in a steady climb or it’s just a head fake to sell. If you get on a steady advance, ride it until structure is broken. DP and DT1 REVERSAL strategies are valid, as the neutral tone has the potential to produce false signals in either direction.  Avoid DP FADE BUYS as the negative trend remains in force.



Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA


Wrap Up
-Today was a choppy day in the AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR currency futures.  With an MC value of -4, the market was in a BEAR TREND.  The use of the Critical Range along with the R level proved to be very effective in navigating todays market.  The Critical Range is our expected trading range for the day.  Keeping this in mind, we must determine what that means in conjunction with the R level.  Since the R is at the UP and the expectation is for the market to trade within the Critical Range, any rally up to the UP should be sold with a SELL UP FADE strategy.  As you can see, this strategy worked perfectly at 2:45 A.M. after the double top and again at 6:45 A.M.  By taking profits on both trades at the DIR, JS traders were able to net profits in a choppy trading environment.