Tuesday, August 14, 2012

10YR TREASURY NOTES

Today's MARKET STATE for TY: **BEAR TREND**

- Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer. On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. The MKT is on edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Avoid DP FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for TY











 
Wrap Up
- Today was a great day for traders using the JS Price Map in the 10YR TREASURY NOTES market.  With an MC Value of -5 and a BEAR TREND Market State, the trader is looking to accept ALL SELL strategies (BREAKOUT, FADE AND REVERSAL) below the R Level.  Since the market started the day just below the DIR, the test of the DIR around 5 A.M. gave us an opportunity to execute a SELL DIR FADE.  A second opportunity was presented when the market made another attempt at the DIR just after 6 A.M., failed to achieve this level, and then sold off dramatically.  The market continued to sell off until it found support at the minor level 133'075.  From here we saw a sharp reaction back to the DP, and a failure from this level, which could have been a good place to add leverage to the short position as negative structure remained in tact, and price failed to hold above the DP just before 8 A.M.  The price then had another dramatic sell off and achieved our downside target of the DT1 where profits should have been taken.