Wednesday, November 28, 2012

10YR TREASURY NOTES

Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES **NEUTRAL POSITIVE SHIFT**
 
-Technically the MKT has produced a positive signal against a negative trend.  On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume.  UP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to its integrity before executing a short sale against it.  A better approach to a straight DP BREAKOUT strategy is to FADE a positive “squeeze” reaction after a negative breakdown signal against the DIR.
-On the BUY side avoid DIR and DP FADE strategies until after the previous session high point or major resistance has been taken out to confirm a break in momentum.  Until then, a better opportunity will be a DP REVERSAL strategy.  UP BUY BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE short at resistance targets.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for TY



Wrap Up
- With an MC shift of +4 the market has produced a NEUTRAL POSITIVE SHIFT.  With the R Level at the DP, we know to accept BUY strategies above this level.  As indicated by our market commentary, BUY UP REVERSAL strategies are aggressive and should look to take profits and REVERSE at our first resistance target (the UT1).  As today's session played out, the BUY UP BREAKOUT strategy could have been executed in the early session, taking profits at the initial resistance target of the UT1 at 9 A.M.  From here, our commentary tells us to reverse and go short the market at our initial resistance target (UT1).  By getting short the market from this level, we were able to capture the move back down to the UP and cover our short position at the UP at 11:30.