Technically the MAY'10 SOYBEANS contract is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION and flirting with the lower extreme. The MKT has produced a big negative signal and any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop sweep" if the negative moemtnum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.
Key off the 940-4 Inflection Pivot for the sentiment bias of the session.
On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below 948-2. BREAKOUT strategies below 932-6 may need to be "worked" as the MKT is on edge and will be emotional, producing some starts and stops before it drops. FADE strategies against 940-4 and 948-2 are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.
On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above 940-4 and the 948-2 resistance pivot are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE off the 932-6 support pivot should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.
Note: The MKT is on edge and is vulnerable to a big drop. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.
JS
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