EuroFX - PULL THE RUG

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION position and is vulnerable to the offer with all trading below the 13522 Inflection Pivot. Any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop squeeze" if the negative moemtnum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.

On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous sessions high point. BREAKOUT strategies below the 13327 support pivot should just "go", so do not risk much. FADE strategies against 13457 resisstance and the 13522 Inflection Pivot are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above 13457 and 13522 are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is in an aggressive sell posture. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.

JS

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EuroFX Z'09 - Negative Signal needs confirmation

The DEC'09 EUROFX posted a big negative signal but will need to trade under the 14810 Inflection Pivot to confirm a sentiment shift. Key off this price point for the session bias. A failure here and expectations are for further losses targeting 14630 on any downside follow through. A false breakdown that cannot sustain a failure from 14810 is expected to produce a nice positive REVERSAL signal with 14978 targeted.

If we do not get a play into the 14810 level expectations will be for a difficult trading environment with 14978 and 15062 the high points for a new digestive trade.

Good trading.

JS

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

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EuroFX - Mixed Signals

The Dec'09 EUROFX is working higher but losing technical indicator support. 14897 is the Inflection Pivot or the price point that defines the session bias. Above here any pull-back is a buying opportunity expecting a charge to new move highs targeting the 15059-15088 resistance band. Be patient. If the rally is going to fizzle it will within this zone. Jump on any REVERSAL signal expecting a sharp exhaustive reaction. 15209 is he current extreme.

A slip under 14951 sets up a test of the 14897 support Inflection Pivot. If the underlying positive tone is going to hold so will this support. A failure here and the currency slips back into a digestive trade down to 14822 and 14796 on any short term sentiment shift. Be patient. If this is just a bunch of mind games that contract will maintain its composure. A break under 14758 confirms a negative turn forecasting a decline down to 14565 and 14514. Expect no follow through.

JS

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EUROFX - DRAMA DAY

The Dec'09 EUROFX posted a negative technical signal against an underlying positive trend. 14644 is the Inflection Pivot that confirms or denies any short term sentiment shift. Typically if a MKT cannot confirm a negative technical signal it can act as a spring board for a fresh advance.

Key off the 14736-14644 Critical Range for a signal to the MKTs next move. A breach of 14736 negates the BULL TREND CORRECTIVE negative signal sparking fresh interest targeting the 14897-14877 resistance band on any positive turn of events.

A break under 14644 is needed to give the CORRECTIVE signal some teeth targeting 14547 on any downside follow through. Be patient. If the MKT is going to stabilize it will above here. If not the weakness can extend down to 14414 before it does.

JS

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Risk Management Overlay Example - Recap 10/2/2009

Risk Management is what it is all about in trading the futures markets. Putting structure to random price action is what JS Services Price Map does. Below is a recap of Friday October 2nd action from Thursday's Blog post and the Price Map performance.

RECAP - October 2, 2009


INTEREST RATES

The world is ready for a little fireworks today as we kick off volatility month. Watch the Interest Rates today for confirmation of an event. The 30yr T-Bond basis Dec'09 has a major resistance inflection pivot at 123-23 and the Dec'09 10yr T-Note resistance pivot is at120-070. If the long end of the curve is going to stall out they each will show signs of strain here. A sustained breach of resistance in both contracts have the potential to launch and put the rest of the world on its head.

US 30YR T-BOND Z'09





* Notice how the 30yr reacted off the 123-23 resistance pivot defining the day for the MKT. This signal provided a clue that it was going to be business as usual for the rest of the world.

US 10YR T-NOTE Z'09





* The 10yr was unable to attain its major resistance and stalled out at a minor level but in confluence with the 30yr. Later in the session the 10yr action off the DIR [Directional level] provided a clue that the 30yr was vulnerable to further losses.





EQUITIES
In the Equities the Dec'09 SP500 can slip as low as 1011.50 without doing much damage to the MKTs underlying confidence. A held failure here and tings can get emotional with 994 and 977 targeted. A rise above the 1036.50 session Inflection Pivot will make yesterday's weakness look like a head fake and if the Interest Rates have rejected hard from their resistance it will be back to bidness as usual targeting 1063.

SP500 INDEX Z'09





* The 1011.50 level proved to be the key support inflection point for the Index. The negative reaction in the 30yr providing confidence that the MKT was due for a positive reaction off this level.






CURRENCY
The Dec'09 EUROFX is set for a big range day and remains in a corrective trade below the 14667 Inflection Pivot. A break under 14499 and yesterday's negative momentum has the potential to accelerate with 14415 and 14247 the lower targets. A rise above 14667 and the buyers will look to take back lost ground in a hurry, putting the recent highs at 14844 in jeopardy.



EUROFX Z'09






* Notice how the EUROFX provided a REVERSAL signal off the 14499 support pivot. The negative reaction in the 30yr providing confidence that no event was in play and a reaction up to the 14667 Inflection Pivot should be expected.



GOLD
Dec'09 GOLD is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE posture with 1005.8 the session Inflection Pivot. Draw a line here. Below this price the yellow metal is vulnerable to a drop down to 985.8-983.7 with the potential to go a low as 970.8. 933.3 is the current lower extreme. A rise above 1005.8 and the buyers will try to flex. If the interest is going to fizzle it will against 1015.8. A violation here and we could be in for the big one to the upside with 1033.9 and 1065.2 the initial targets.


GOLD Z'09



* As expected GOLD made a play for the 985.8 support level, however the negative REVERSAL in the 30yr cut the move short signaling a re-test of the 1005.8 Inflection Pivot. MKTs like to gravitate to their key pivotal areas when they are indecisive on what to do next.

ENERGY

Nov'09 NAT GAS is flirting with disaster. Key off the 4.553 Inflection Pivot for an indication for he session tone. Below here yesterday's BEAR TREND ACCELERATION signal keeps the controls with a failure from 4.388 confirming the signal targeting 4.035 on any negative follow through. A rise above 4.553 delays the inevitable for a difficult trade up to 4.716. If the aggressive sellers are going to return they will enter here. If not a positive shift into neutral is the outlook with 5.030 the upper digestive extreme.

NAT GAS X'09

* The NAT GAS MKT tried to press it to the downside but could not hold under the 4.388 support, producing a reaction back up to the 4.553 Inflection Pivot. As a confirmation to the positive REVERSAL signal the contract rotated up to the top of its expected digestive range at 4.716.

Having a RISK MANAGEMENT OVERLAY provides structure. Understanding structure allows you to anticipate opportunity not react to it. This is the difference between marginal and great success. Get the edge.

JS

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING - BULL TREND CORRECTION

Continuing with the BULL TREND CORRECTION focus the Currencies have provided us opportunity for this signal state. Each MKT presented has produced a negative signal against an underlying positive trend. Is this signal going to follow through to the downside or is this just an opportunity to re-enter a positively trending MKT.

* Please read the previous posts for the week on BULL TREND CORRECTION as well as the webvidoe tutorial links.

To answer this question we look at the MKTs behavioral state and the specific price point or inflection pivot where sentiment for the signal is confirmed or denied. Trading at this price point is optimal however aligning your signal acceptance to the sentiment bias in the BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state will enhance your performance.

For today, September 25 2009 - The following MKTs are in a BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state:

EU = EUROFX Dec'09 – 14681 Inflection Pivot

DA = Australian Dollar – 8534 Inflection Pivot

AUDJPY = Aussie / Yen – 7905 Inflection Pivot

EUROFX Z'09 - The MKT produced a negative signal against an underlying positiver trend and will remain in a BULL TREND CORRECTION technical state below the 14681 Inflection Pivot. If the negative action is going to continue the currency will struggle to maintain a trade above 14681. A failure from 14609 confirm fresh selling targeting 14517 on any negative follow through.

A held rise above 14681 removes the negative threat sparking a rally up to 14767. Stay nimble. This move does have potential to be the beginnings of a new leg higher however the Friday trade will most likely keep the trade digestive.

Australian$ z'09 - The MKT is expected to shrug off yesterday's negative signal with all trading above the 8534 Inflection Pivot. Keep a buy break bias above here expecting the positive momentum to remain in force. Only under 8534 does sentiment shift.


AUDJPY - The cross is trying to find its footing but will continue to struggle with all trading below the 7906 Inflection Pivot. This is the high point for any buying today if the negative corrective signal is going to remain in force. A rise above 7905 revives the aggressive buyers with 7958 the initial target. Work any sustain positive structure with expectations for a run at the recent move highs at 8006.



JS



Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria.


Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html


For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.