EURUSD Forex - GOING NOWHERE FAST

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND but in a DIGESTIVE posture. The MKT has produced a big negative signal but has yet to confirm a shift into trend mode. Look for excuses to get short below the 12772 Inflection Pivot and use a failure from the 12626 support pivot to confirm a new move south. A held trade above 12772 shift the forecast sideways.


On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. SELL BREAKOUT strategies may need to be "worked" as teh big negative signal will have the sellers excited. FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well and can provide favorable area to put on leverage against structure. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at or against the previous session high point targeting the opposing digestive support. Above the previous session high point enterying after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area is recomended over stepping in front of the initial challenge.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should be entered sooner [lower] than later [higher]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding strucutre most of the day producing a positive "reversal" signal. If the MKT digests prior to making a positive move it is more likely a short squeeze to FADE. BUY FADE strategies are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a lower trade. BUY REVERSAL strategies are not recommended as any failure is confirmation of a negative trend shift. The probability is to the downside today so don't get stubborn buying breaks.

Note: The MKT has produced a big negative signal and is flirting with a turn for the worse. If it does not follow through on any new weakness it is more likely a nuetral shift than a positive one.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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EURUSD Forex - TRUTH OR DARE

- The MKT is in a holding pattern and is trying to shift into a more aggressive positive position. Key of the 12854 Inlection Pivot for an indication of market sentiment. A held trade above here is needd to keep the buyers happy. A breach o 12926 conirms a fresh adance. A break under 12776 is needed to negate the underlying posiitve tone and put the MKT back on the defensive.

- On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies and use a REVERSAL instead. The MKT is excited but has yet to confirm any new advance. Expectations are that any false positive breakout signal will be met with a sharp negative reaction. BREAKOUT strategies are a lower probability but are valid and in line with a reversal scenario. If the MKT has already produced a false positive signal and is holding negative reversal structure, this strategy has potential.


- On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies. BREAKOUT strategies have the potential to run. If so, they will just "go" and not look back. Any stop and go action and any profits should be realized as it is more likely the MKT will be setting up a re-test of support to FADE before it can extend higher. FADE and REVERSAL strategies should work off initial major support and only provide one opportunity. Repeated tests or base building and it is more likely the MKT is going to search for its lower digestive extreme rather than resume a positive course.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .


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EURUSD FOREX - TRYING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE

Technically the MKT is in a DIGESTIVE BULL TREND and is flirting with a shift into a more aggressive positive position. Look for excuses to get long but respect the digestive nature and avoid pressing any position.

Key off the 12483 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the markets tone. As long as the currency is above this price point the bias is positive. A failure here and the digestive nature of the technical state will take over.
On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies and use a REVERSAL instead against the 12610 resistance pivot. The MKT is excited but has yet to confirm any new advance. Expectations are that any false positive breakout signal will be met with a sharp negative reaction. BREAKOUT strategies below 12483 are a lower probability but are valid and in line with a reversal scenario. If the MKT has already produced a false positive signal and is holding negative reversal structure, this strategy has potential. Expectations are that any negative BREAKOUT should just go and with the MKT staying under pressure into the close and expanding the digestive range. Anticipate a positive turn and consider reversing off lower support structure.

On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies. BREAKOUT strategies above the 12610 resistance have the potential to run. If so, they will just "go" and not look back. Any stop and go action and any profits should be realized as it is more likely the MKT will be setting up a re-test of support to FADE before it can extend higher. FADE and REVERSAL strategies should work off 12483 and only provide one opportunity. Repeated tests or base building and it is more likely the MKT is going to search for its lower digestive extreme rather than resume a positive course.

Note: The MKT has produced a positive signal but is not confirmed. Be ready for it but if it does not materialize, beware of a negative reaction. Don't get caught fading a break that continues to hold structure as the MKT may be defining its lower digestive extreme and will most likely find it after it hits your last sell stop.

JS

* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min webvideo explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies  http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .

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EURUSD - POSITIVE TRANSITION

Technically the MKT is in NEUTRAL TRANSITION and has produced a positive signal which should infleunce the MKT today if the signal is valid. If the integrity of the prior session's high remains intact it is less liekly to do so with the MKT returning to a sideways trade. Roll with any new strength and leverage up if good risk parameters present themselves. The potential to get in at the beginning of a new move higher is real.

The 12086 Inflection Pivot is the hurdle the MKT must hold above to confirm a sentiment shift.

On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major resistance levels at or near the previous session high point. Avoid this strategy on higher levels as any new strength has the potential to be the beginning of a move. If the integrity of the previous session high remains intact FADE strategies can be accepted at or near this inflection point on the initial test with tight profit target objectives. If the MKT has already had a reaction off this resistance area avoid this strategy. Use a BREAKOUT strategy as a signal to FADE a positive pull-back after a confirm break in the momentum. Only take this trade if the previous session high point remains intact. Otherwise this will be a BUY REVERSAL opportunity.

On the BUY side be more aggressive after the previous session high has been taken out. Not that this is a pre-condition but should be noted as a confirmation of strength. BREAKOUT strategies should just "go" so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any negative reaction off an unsuccessful upside BREAKOUT after a support level is confirmed. Use a REVERSAL strategy to leverage up after the MKT gets back above the original breakout point. If the integrity of the previous session high remains intact, avoid REVERSAL strategies as any break momentum is a negative signal that the MKT is going to return to its neutral posture. FADE strategies are recommended early in the session or near the end. The positive signal will either play out from the get go or will make its move in the latter stages of the trading session.

Note: This is a dangerous emotional trading environment. MKT reactions to go a little further that you expect in either direction so anticipate this in your position and risk management.

JS

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EURUSD Forex - EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL TRANSITION with sentiment leaning negative and flirting with a negative turn. Opportunity exists on both sides of the equation however the threat of an acceleration of the negative momentum outweighs the buy side if the integrity of the previous session high remains intact.

Key off the 12297 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. If the MKT is going to remain stable it will not do much trading below here. If so the negative momentum is expected to dominate.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current positive to negative transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on BREAKOUT strategies below 12297 as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for positive reactions after a negative signal to FADE into against 12373. The trade should be fluid with the MKT immediately giving background after any positive squeeze. 12449 is the high point for any positive squeeze if the negative signal is going to play out and FADE and REVERSAL signals should be excepted.

On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies of the 12297 support area until after the previous session high point or major resistance has been taken out to confirm a break in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off 12297. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a positive shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 12449 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should use the same aggressive position management as a REVERSAL. Risk less go for more.

Note: The MKT is trying to shift from a positive to a negative trend position. False starts and stops should be expected and position management adjustment anticipated, as quick momentum turns are the norm in this technical environment.

JS

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EURUSD - FRESH MEAT

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a positive signal against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the threat of the return of the negative momentum must be respected as a good probability with all trading below the 12946 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE at the 12819 and 12946 levels, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to its integrity before executing a short sale against it. BREAKOUT strategies below the 12692 support pivot can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a negative posture with the expectation that the negative trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a positive "squeeze" reaction against 12819 after a negative breakdown as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies off 12692 until after the previous session high point or major resistance has been taken out to confirm a break in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1st major support level. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its CORRECTIVE signal any weakness is just a "head fake " before it follows through. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 12946 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE short at resistance targets. The trade is corrective and the eventual play is a resumption of the negative momentum.

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to produce a sharp short covering rally, a messy sideways digest or a resumption of the negative trend. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it. If you have > 3 losses consider reversing strategy.

JS

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EURUSD - NEGATIVE SIGNAL

Technically the EURUSD FOREX market is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION technical posture. The MKT has produced a big negative signal and any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop sweep" if the negative moemtnum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.

13696 Inflection Pivot is the lid keep the currency vulnerable.

On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below 13696 and the previous sessions high point. BREAKOUT strategies below the 13530 support pivot may need to be "worked" as the MKT is on edge and will be emotional, producing some starts and stops before it drops. FADE strategies against 13696 and 13779 are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above 13696 are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE off the 13530 support pivot should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is on edge and is vulnerable to a big drop. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.

JS

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EURUSD - BULL TREND ACCELERATION

The EURUSD produced a positive acceleration signal and will keep an aggressive bid above 14332. A breach of the 14423-14415 resistance and follow through is expected up to 14498 in the session. Work any held trade 14703 and 14747 are the extended targets. 14978 is the current upper extreme.

A dip under 14332 gives the buyers something to think about with a squeeze down to the 14279 and 14249 Inflection Pivot. If the positive momentum is going to pick back up it will from here. Only under 14163 is the optimistic outlook negated signaling a sentiment shift down to 13880.

JS

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.