CRUDE OIL - MAKING A MOVE

The OCT'13 CRUDE OIL has broken out to the upside basis the DAILY market state and is approaching good directional resistance at the 109.32-109.06 Upside Target resistance. If the MKT is going to fall back into a sideways digestion it will reject here. If not the LONG TERM POSITIVE TRANSITION is in play targeting $125. Keep a BUY BREAK outlook above the 107.10 Upside Pivot [UP].

CRUDE OIL - PIVOTAL

This weeks MKT is: CRUDE OIL OCT'13 contract.

Market State: TREND NON TREND - PIVOTAL 

The Long Term forecast for CRUDE OIL remains $125 over the next 3 months. Currently the MKT has yet to commit and is would up in a PIVOTAL market state.

MARKET STATE 

The market in a TREND NON TREND has typically been in a NEUTRAL market state for at least 3 trading periods and is ready to make a decisive move out of its “range” trade. This is a “pivotal” trading period with the potential to be the start of the next significant advance or decline. This Technical State can present difficult trading conditions with false signals in both directions common. The MKT is gearing up for a move and will either continue to narrow its recent trading range or “bust” out into a new trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the market, however aggressive risk management should be implemented. REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies are recommended. Successful BREAKOUT strategies under these conditions are typically “one-shot” opportunities, using aggressive trail stops.

UP = 107.10 
DIR R = 106.12 
DP = 105.14 

Additional Comments NOTE: The MKT in this Technical State is “on the fence” with the potential for a decisive session. Typically a successful “trend” move will have only 1 test of the DIR R level before making a move. If the MKT presents an opportunity early in the trading period that does not follow through, consider taking a step back to re-initiate later in the session to avoid the mid-session chop.