Tuesday, June 23, 2009

SP500 - Is that it?

The SEP’09 SP500 contract found it’s footing after Monday’s negative signal but will it be enough to turn the index back north.

As always anything is possible however when the MKTs technical state is taken into consideration we have a few more clues to it's intentions.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009 action is a good case in point. JS Services defines a MKTs technical state and the inflection points in which it will react in its daily Price Map. Pre-market Tuesday’s service advised that the MKT was in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE technical state.
SP500 Price Map June 23, 2009

NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE TECHNICAL STATE



Typical action in this technical state is choppy with sharp breaks against the underlying trend with the best opportunities to FADE weakness into support. Tuesday’s action provided a sharp break down to the daily Price Map support pivot and bounced, with the balance of the session sideways chop.

The market performed to expectation today and the daily Price Map allowed you to capture it.


Note Tuesday’s R level [Inflection Pivot] at 902-901.75 coincides with this week’s directional point [6/22/2009 post]. As a position management tool of Monday's negative signal this would be a good point for a trail stop. In addition the 884.00 Support Pivot [DP] provided an opportunity to “work” the trade and realize some profits. Expectations in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state are that the sharp breaks will produce positive reactions, especially if those breaks happen above a major support inflection pivot.

So what’s next in the SP500 U'09 contract for Wednesday June 24, 2009?

Tuesday’s sideways higher session produced a NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME signal. In this technical signal state the MKT is pressing it’s upper digestive extreme and will either snap back into a negative posture or transition higher after breaking through it’s extreme or today's Inflection Pivot.


895.25 is the Inflection Pivot to key off for the session.

Below this price point the Index will remain hard pressed targeting 878.50 and 870.50 on any new weakness in the session, keeping Monday's negative signal in play. Expectations are that emotions will start to escalate however it’s just that above 862.50. Only under the 862.50 Weekly support inflection pivot does the underlying sentiment shift negative. Keep your eye on the 3457 in the VIX to gauge the fear factor.

A rise above the 895.25 Inflection Pivot puts Monday’s negative signal on hold for a challenge to the 903.50-902 Weekly directional area. How the MKT reacts here will provide a clue to the action for the next couple days. A rejection and the Bears will be back on the prowl searching for support. A violation and the positive momentum will have the 931.25-926.25 resistance band in its sights.

This posts supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach.

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.

JS