SP500 U'12 - SET FOR SIDEWAYS

TECHNICAL STATE:  #NEU - NEUTRAL DIGESTION

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE position with all indicators counter balanced. The MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations. In this market state directional moves are not expected to be sustained. Opportunity exists on both sides of the market, albeit profit potential is limited and should be realized “sooner than later”. Markets that do end a session with a strong directional bias will have trouble sustaining that bias in the coming session, without the support of a like shift in the next session’s MC Value.

SENTIMENT BIAS: NEGATIVE – R=UT1

 The R LEVEL equal to the UT1 [UPSIDE TARGET #1] creates a resistance band with the UP [UPSIDE PIVOT] as upper extreme of this technical state. All trading below this price band will have a negative sentiment bias. Typically in this behavioral framework the market is probing higher with this zone acting as the exhaustive high point of the sideways pattern. Use caution.  Difficult trading conditions are expected. A rise above the R Level is a positive signal with the potential to produce a transition higher.

Optimal Strategy = BUY DP REVERSAL; SELL R FADE; SELL UP REVERSAL

Hedge Strategy = BUY R BREAKOUT: SELL DIR CR BREAKOUT

OPTIONS ANALYSIS 

Neutral Digestion markets offer an opportunity to cautiously sell some option premium.  Caution is warranted as the Neutral Digestion state can be a precursor to a breakout as the coiling action will build power.  There is a negative sentiment bias but directional moves are not expected to be sustained.  A breakout to the downside will bring higher volatiles.

SP500 INDEX Futures - SKEPTICAL

 

- The MKT has produced a major positive technical signal and is flirting with a shift into a more aggressive trend position. Key off the 1150.50-1147.25 resistance band as a pivotal area for trading at these levels. If the MKT is going to extend higher it will build a base above here to make a run for the 1175 level. A held trade below 1147.25 signals a big digestive trade with the 1118.50 Inflection Pivot the low point for a new consolidation. 

On the SELL side avoid UP FADE strategies and use a REVERSAL instead. The MKT is excited but has yet to confirm any new advance. Expectations are that any false positive breakout signal will be met with a sharp negative reaction. DP BREAKOUT strategies are a lower probability but are valid and in line with a reversal scenario.


- On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies. UP BREAKOUT strategies have the potential to run. If so, they will just "go" and not look back. Any stop and go action and any profits should be realized as it is more likely the MKT will be setting up a re-test of the DIR support to FADE before it can extend higher. FADE and REVERSAL strategies should work off the DP and only provide one opportunity. Repeated tests or base building and it is more likely the MKT is going to search for its lower digestive extreme rather than resume a positive course.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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SP500 INDEX Futures - FLIP FLOP

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND and has produced a negative signal. The MKT is vulnerable and all sell signals should be considered below the 1047.75 Inflection Pivot. If the negative momentum is going to follow through the market will struggle to maintain a trade above here.  If so a return to a firm sideways trade is the forecast.

On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. If the MKT produces a BREAKOUT signal early in the session below 1037.25 it should just "go" and not look back. Beware of any break in early negative structure, as a corrective rally up to 1056.25 and 1066 resistance is a likely scenario. Be selective and wait for an exhaustive signal to re-enter to avoid selling the corrective rally all the way up to your "ideal" sell points but with no confidence left or dry powder. Practice good size management on this move accepting sell signals but leveraging up at the resistance turning points. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk. ONLY keep an aggressive BEAR posture below 1047.75. Above here the MKT is vulnerable to a rally with a breach of 1056.25 the confirm point.

On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off early in the session. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Expectations should be for an immediate "V" bottom turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area or a gradual rise with higher lows after a lower exhaustive signal. Avoid FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 1047.75 should just go producing a low volatility one way trade higher. Any stops and go action should be viewed as negative. 

Note: The MKT has produced a negative signal and should follow through with authority from the get go if it is serious. If not expect some starts and stops. Be patient and wait for opportunity. A held trade above the 1047.75 has the potential to bounce this contract back on its feet. Don't fight positive structure.

JS

* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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SP500 Index Futures - TRANSITIONAL

Technically the MKT is in NEUTRAL TRANSITION and has produced a positive signal which should influence the MKT today if the signal is valid. If the integrity of the prior session's high remains intact it is less likely to do so with the MKT returning to a sideways trade. Roll with any new strength and leverage up if good risk parameters present themselves. The potential to get in at the beginning of a new move higher is real.


Key off the 1082.25 Inflection Pivot as the base for the positive transition signal. If the MKT is going to rotate higher any turn to support will bottom out above here.
On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major resistance levels at or near the previous session high point. Avoid this strategy on higher levels as any new strength has the potential to be the beginning of a move. If the integrity of the previous session high remains intact FADE strategies can be accepted at or near this level on the initial test with tight profit target objectives. If the MKT has already had a reaction off this resistance area avoid this strategy. Use a BREAKOUT strategy below 1082.25 as a signal to FADE a positive pull-back after a confirm break in the momentum. Only take this trade if the previous session high point remains intact. Otherwise this will be a BUY REVERSAL opportunity.

On the BUY side be more aggressive after the previous session high has been taken out. Not that this is a pre-condition but should be noted as a confirmation of strength. BREAKOUT strategies above 1091 and 1098.50 should just "go" so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any negative reaction off an unsuccessful upside BREAKOUT after a support level is confirmed. Use a REVERSAL strategy to leverage up after the MKT gets back above the original breakout point. If the integrity of the previous session high remains intact, avoid REVERSAL strategies as any break momentum is a negative signal that the MKT is going to return to its neutral posture. FADE strategies off the 1082.25 Inflection Pivot are recommended early in the session or near the end. The positive signal will either play out from the get go or will make its move in the latter stages of the trading session.

Note: This is a dangerous emotional trading environment. Expect MKT reactions to go a little further that you expect in either direction so anticipate this in your position and risk management.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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SP500 Index Futures - TRYING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE

:Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT, however a held trade above the 1113 Inflection Pivot will keep the positive momentum in command. A failure from 1113 and the Bears have something to sink their teeth into.


On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1129.50 resistance level. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its negative signal any strength is just a "head fake " before it follows through. SELL BREAKOUT strategies under 1113 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets at 1104.75 and 1090.25. The trade is corrective and the underlying positive tone must be respected.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies at 1113, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 1129.50 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture with the expectation that the Bull Trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal down to 1121.25 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to move in either direction. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

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SP500 INDEX Futures - EXTENDED

Technically the MKT has produced a major positive signal into the upper extreme and will need to hold structure if it is going to avoid a drop back into a digestive trade.

Key off the 1054 Inflection Pivot as the low point for the underlying positive structure. If the bias is going to remain firm and pull-back will bottom out above here. A held breach of 1079.50 shifts the Index back into a positive position for a new leg north.

On the SELL side FADE signals are valid but REVERSAL strategies are a better option at the 1079.50 resistance pivot. Have resting limit orders off support inflections and use aggressive position management to lock in any unrealized gains on any REVERSAL trade. 1071 and 1062.50 BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive but do have the potential to profit from a quick negative move out of the extreme targeting the 1054 support. Use tight position management for these strategies as any unrealized profits can be erased quickly by the underlying positive momentum.

On the BUY side accept FADE at 1062.50 and 1054 signals after confirmation. The MKT is extended and may search for stops before it resumes its Bull move. REVERSAL strategies are a better option. The sharper the break, the better for an entry with the expectations that the MKT is going to revisit the recent move high. BUY DIR and BREAKOUT strategies above 1079.50may need to be "worked" as the MKT is extended and has the potential to produce some starts and stops.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .


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SP 500 Index Futures - Cooler Heads Prevail

Technically the MKT is pressing the EXTREME of a BEAR TREND move and may need a sideways session or two before it can extend lower. Don't risk too much hoping for it however as the momentum is down and sellers have probability on there side.

1043.50 is the Inflection Pivot keeping the Index in an aggressive sell posture. As long as the MKT is below here it is vulnerable to further losses. Key off the 1012 support pivot as this is the breaking point for a new move south. A failure here should pull the rug on the contract, if not a sharp positive reaction should be expected.

On the SELL side downside BREAKOUT strategies are valid below 1012 but will struggle sustaining new move lows at this time. Get in to these trades sooner (higher) than later (lower) as new weakness is expected to be stop and go. A more conservative strategy is to FADE a positive reaction after a negative breakdown signal against 1027.75 and even better to wait for a REVERSAL off this corrective rise rather than stepping in front of int. FADE and REVERSAL are recommended at 1043.50 especially after a sharp corrective rise. The MKT is negative but is also extended and the probability of a corrective rise is high.. Wait for an exhaustive signals or confirmation to jump on.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 1043.50 should have aggressive trail stops and tighter profit targets. There is a good chance for a corrective turn but profit targets and position management should be tight as this is more likely a rally to sell. If you get on, ride it until structure is broken and then look to go the other way. BUY REVERSAL strategies off 1012 and in the 975.25-962.50 area will provide opportunity off of lower support inflections but will work best after a sharp trade lower through major support. Expectations are for no follow through not a reversal of sentimnet. Keep risk management and profit targets tight to reduce giveback as the underlying technical foundation today is negative. Avoid FADE BUYS as the negative trend remains enforce with sell FADE opportunities the better place to step out.

Note: Just because the MKT is extended does not mean it cannot get more extended. Wait for a signal don't force one.

 

JS

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SP500 Futures - CORRECTIVE

The MKT has produced a positive signal and is flirting with a resumption of the BULL TREND.

Key off the 1120 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. Below here the Index will continue to search for a corrective low point with 1088.50 the expected bottom or any further corrective action. A rise above 1120 and the underlying positive momentum with be back in launch mode.

On the SELL side accept FADE strategies against 1120 on the initial test of major resistance below or at the previous session high only. Repeated tests are expected to give way to higher prices as above the previous session high the corrective structure will be broken confirming the positive signal. Avoid REVERSAL strategies as any violations of resistance are positive. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below the 1103.75 support pivot are valid but aggressive. The MKT has produced a positive signal so if it does not follow through a negative turn could have some potential down to 1096 and 1088.50. Either way have a defined exit strategy as any negative action will be counter trend.

On the BUY side accept REVERSAL signals off all major inflection levels atr 1103.75, 1096 and 1088.50 expecting the underlying positive tone to resume course. FADE strategies should work on the initial test. The MKT has generated a positive signal and if it is going to follow through it should just go. Work any BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 1120 as any positive shift in momentum has the potential to be the start of the next leg higher.

Note: the MKT has produced a technical buy signal but remains in a corrective trade. Look for excuses to get long on qualified signals but respect the corrective posture.

JS

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SP500 Futures - SENTIMENT SHIFT

The SP500 is set for a drama day as it is currently flirting with a sentiment shift. A held trade above 1122.75 points to a higher trade targeting 1147.50 on any momentum breakout. Don't fight any positive structure as a railroad advance up to 1174 will be in play.

A trade under 1122.75 puts the MKT back in a digestive posture down to 1113.50 and 1104.25 Inflection Pivot. Either price point has the potential to be the low for the expected consolidation, with a close above 1113.50 needed to keep the underlying positive shift intact. Only below 1104.25 is a negative turn anticipated down to 1084.25. No follow through is expected, however 1041.25 is the current lower extreme.

JS

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SP500 Futures- VULNERABLE BELOW 1070

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION position and is vulnerable to the offer with all trading below the 1070 Inflection Pivot. Any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived below here with only one upside "stop squeeze" if the negative moemtnum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.

On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous sessions high point. BREAKOUT strategies under 1045 should just "go", so do not risk much. FADE strategies against 1070 are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off the 1045 support pivot as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE against 1057.50. BREAKOUT strategies above 1070, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE off 1045 should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is in an aggressive sell posture. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.

JS

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SP500 Futures - TASTE TEST

Technical indicators shifted negated after Friday's sell off but the underlying technical structure remains positive above 1121.50. As long as the June'10 contract is above this price point the sentiment bias is to the upside. A breach of the 1143.50 resistance pivot will confirm this targeting 1197 on the next reaction higher.

Key off the 1132.50 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the sessions immediate tone. Use this as an "over under" number today. Above here the MKT will be leaning positive and below negative with 1143.50 and 1121.50 the neutral Critical Range extremes. Only a breach of either extreme will signal the next trend move.

Expectations are for any positive move to be more of a "railroad" trade with sellers "scaling in" feeding a one way trade with only minor reactions.

A break under 1121.50 is expected to be more emotional with sharp sell-offs followed by positive price squeezes. As long as the MKT is below 1121.50 the potential for a release will remain a threat.

The price points presented define the behavioral shifts in market sentiment. Use them as an overlay to your outlook.

Good Trading

JS

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SP500 - VULNERABLE

The SP500 broke out to the down shifting into a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION technical state. If the negative signal is going to follow through the Index will not do much if any trading above the 1173.75 Inflection Pivot.

This is the price point which will determine today's bias. Below here the pressure stays on high targeting 1156.50 and 1146.50 on any new weakness. Use caution. Although reactions are expected this sell off does have the potential to flush down to 1131.50.

A held trade above 1173.75 takes the edge off for a difficult trade up to 1183. If the MKT is going to fall back into a soft sideways trade any show of strength will fizzle here. If not a play for the 1202-1199 resistance band is the outlook. Expect no follow through.

Note: The MKT produced a major negative technical signal which should at least produce a new move low. If not it is an underlying sign of strength that will foreshadow a resumption of the underlying positive momentum targeting 1225.

JS

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SP500 - TIME TO PLAY A CARD

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big negative signal against a positive trend. If the negative signal is going to follow through it should do so from the get go and not look back. Any break in the negative structure is a signal that the positive trend will try to reassert itself.

Key off the 1187 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone.

On the SELL side FADE strategies should work on the initial test at 1187 and the 1194.25 resistance pivot and immediately turn the market lower. Repeated tests is a sign that the market will try to probe higher. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below the 1177.75 support pivot can be profitable but they are after a major negative signal and have the potential to be stop and go. The trade has the potential to be the beginning of a major sentiment shift if it turns sour.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies off the 1177.75 and 1169.50 support levels, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 1187 and the 1194.25 resistance pivot can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction at 1187 after a positive breakout signal above 1194.25 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the negative action may be a 1-day event with the positive trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain hard pressed and provide little or no relief. Don't fight any sustained weakness as the potential for a sentiment shift is real.

JS

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SP500 Index Futures - TIME TO PLAY A CARD

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big negative signal against a positive trend. If the negative signal is going to follow through it should do so from the get go and not look back. Any break in the negative structure is a signal that the positive trend will try to reassert itself.

Key off the 1171.50 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session bias. If the market is going to crumble it will have to overwhelm this support area.

On the SELL side FADE strategies should work on the initial test of the 1187 resistance pivot and immediately turn the market lower. Repeated tests is a sign that the market will try to probe higher. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 1171.50 can be profitable but they are after a major negative signal and have the potential to be stop and go. The trade has the potential to be the beginning of a major sentiment shift if it turns sour.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies off the 1171.50 support pivot, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 1187 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction down to the 1179.25 Directional pivot after a positive breakout signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the negative action may be a 1-day event with the positive trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain hard pressed and provide little or no relief. Don't fight any sustained weakness as the potential for a sentiment shift is real.

JS

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SP500 Futures Index - Set to Swing

The JUN'10 SP500 Futures contract is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE technical state after an unsuccessful press to new move highs. This MKT is set to churn with 1176-1146.75 the current digestive extremes.

1146.75 is the session Inflection Pivot and the low point for any big sideways trade.

On the SELL side avoid BREAKOUT strategies below 1157.50 but rather FADE a positive reaction after a negative breakdown signal against 1166.75. REVERSAL strategies at 1176 and 1185.25 are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any FADE trades should get confirmation or an exhaustion or turning point signal before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all sales as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 1166.75 and 1176 are valid but should expect a laborious trade. Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit giveback. FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off 1157.50 and the 1153.25-1146.75 support band. The probability is to the upside today but is not a day to press it.

Note: The MKT is in neutral and is more likely to go nowhere fast. Don't get stubborn, however, if the MKT starts to get into trend mode as the contract may just be expanding its digestive parameters producing a one way trade into the close and new extreme. Be more aggressive accepting BUY signals off 1153.25 and down to 1146.75 as this is the base for any new advance.

JS

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SP500 Index -Corrective Technical Signal

The technical structure of the Mar'10 S&P500 Index futures contract has downshifted into a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE. Expectations are for more difficult trading action in front of the roll with the 1127 Inflection Pivot the low point for any setback.

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies against the 1151.75 resistance pivot until after the previous session low point or 1138.25 level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 1138.25 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at the 1131.50 and 1127 support targets. The trade is counter trend so avoid any negative commitments.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies at 1138.25 and 1131.50, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. The best buy FADE will be at the 1127 Inflection Pivot today. BREAKOUT strategies above the 1151.75 resistance can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction down to the 1145 Directional after a positive breakout signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the negative action may be a 1-day event with the positive trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain hard pressed and provide little or no relief.

JS

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SP500 Index - NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME

SP500 H'10 ** NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME **

Technically the MKT is extended to the downside. Avoid selling into weakness but rather anticipate positive REVERSAL opportunities off the 1075.50 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept UP FADE and REVERSAL strategies against the 1099.50 resistance pivot, expecting more of a trend-less trading environment rather than a resumption of the BEAR TREND. FADE strategies are best on the initial challenge as repeated tests will most likely give way to a corrective rally. Avoid these strategies above the previous session high point as the potential for a strong fast positive turn is real. DP BREAKOUT strategies under 1075.50 will be enticing but are more likely a "trap".

On the BUY side FADE and REVERSAL strategies off the 1075.50 and 1063.50 support inflection points are qualified, however with a 1075.50 FADE use confirmation after the 2nd or 3rd test. REVERSAL strategies are better at 1075.50 and the strategy be used as a "trail" to any break, with the expectations of the MKT producing a sharp "V" bottom or exhaustive turning point reversal signal. UP BREAKOUT strategies above 1099.50 have the potential to pay off as the start of a new corrective move north.

JS

This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html
For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

CORRECTIVE SIGNAL STATE - SP500 Index

The Dec'09 SP500 Index posted a new move high lower close to put the contract back in a NEUTRAL CORRECTION technical posture. The MKT is in a bit of a vacuum pocket and is primed for some volatility. 1089 is the beginning of a support band that extends down to the 1084.50 Inflection Pivot. This is the low point for any lower squeeze if the underlying positive momentum is going to resume. Accept buy signals in this zone. A held failure from 1084.50 is a fresh negative signal which extends the pressure down to 1071. Here again buying is expected. Only under this support do I see the potential for a release with 1044 and 1026 targeted. 990 is the current extreme.

Use the 1098 Directional level as a sentiment guide for the session. A held trade above here has the Index playing cat and mouse up to 1107. If the CORRECTIVE trade is going to resume the MKT will reject here. If not the buyers will try to ramp things back up targeting new move highs up to 1120.50. 1132 and 1153.25 are the extended targets.

JS

Price Map performance for Wednesday's post for Thursday DEC 3 2009.

Note how the MKT was not able to sustain a trade above the 1112.25 Inflection Pivot which ultimately provided the signal to the negative move. This is Strategy Based Trading at work. Our expectations are that the MKT should maintain a trade above the Inflection Pivot if the BULL TREND was going to resume. If not expectations are that the MKT will fall back into a DIGESTIVE trade lower. The MKT could not maintain a trade above 1112.25 and broke down as expected. Align your expectations with the current technical posture and use JS Services Inflection Pivots to capture opportunity.

Dec'09 SP500 Index Dec 3, 2009

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

BULL TREND DIGESTION - SP500 Index

The Dec'09 SP500 contract held its ground but could not extend off Tuesday's Acceleration signal dropping back into a BULL TREND DIGESTION technical state. Delayed reaction? Could be. Key off the 1112.25 Inflection Pivot of an indication of the session tone. If the MKT is good it will sustain a trade above here and not look back. The 1120.25 resistance pivot is the spoiler for any extended run today. Once cleared of this hurdle any new buying will have the potential to climb up to 1140.25 in the session. 1161 is the extended target.
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- Trading below 1112.25 keeps the contract in a messy digestive trade down to 1104.25 and 1100. If the Index is going to maintain its composure it will stabilize above here. If not thing s can get a little slippery with 1084.50 and 1064 the low points for any new consolidation. 1039 is the extreme for any reversal of fortune in front of Friday's figure.


Be patient. If things don't get interesting quick the session could be another head banger.


JS


For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

BULL TREND ACCELERATION Signal - SP500

The Dec'09 SP500 contract is back on the bid and flirting with an accleration in the positive momentum producing a BULL TREND ACCELERATION signal. A MKT in this technical state has produced a big posiitve signal which should follow through today if valid.


Key off the 1102 Inflection Pivot. This is the price point that determines the session bias. Above here the BULL TREND ACCELERATION signal is in play and the MKT aggressively bid. A breach of the recent highs at 1112.25 confirms the signal putting the Index on course for the 1132.75 and 1153.25 resistance targets.

Trading below 1102 lets some air out of the excitement down to 1091.75. This is the low point for any weakness today if the contract is going to maintain its composure. A break under 1091.75 negates yesterday's positive signal putting the MKT back in a difficult digestive trade with 1067 and 1047.50 targeted for any sentiment shift.

JS

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Price Map performance for Monday's post for DEC 1 2009. Note how a breach of the 1098.25 level sparked a rally up to the 1112.25 recent highs.

Dec'09 SP500 Index Dec1, 2009

Strategy Based Trading aligining your expectations with the MKTs current Technical State.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html