Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria.
Today I'm going to go over a BEAR TREND CORRECTION technical state. MKTs in the BEAR TREND CORRECTIVE technical state will typically have sharp corrective rallies against the underlying negative momentum. The MKT has been in an underlying negative trend and has produced a positive signal against the trend. Question, is the positive signal going to following through in a transitional trade or revert back to a BEAR TREND mode.
The session Inflection Pivot will define the session behavioral state confirming or denying the positive signal. Above the Inflection Pivot the Transitional trade is in play for a strong corrective buy opportunity. Below the Inflection Pivot the contract is vulnerable to a return to the negative trend.
For today, November 17, 2009 - The following MKT is in a BEAR TREND CORRECTIVE state:
NAT GAS Z'09 - 4.722 Inflection Pivot
Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a positive signal against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the threat of the return of the negative momentum must be respected as a good probability.
On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to its integrity before executing a short sale against it. BREAKOUT strategies can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a negative posture with the expectation that the negative trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a positive "squeeze" reaction after a negative breakdown as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.
On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session high point or major resistance has been taken out to confirm a break in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1st major support level. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its CORRECTIVE signal any weakness is just a "head fake " before it follows through. BUY BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE short at resistance targets. The trade is corrective and the eventual play is a resumption of the negative momentum.
For an overview on ENTRY strategies please review the following link http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv
Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to produce a sharp short covering rally, a messy sideways digest or a resumption of the negative trend. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it. If you have > 3 losses consider reversing strategy.
JS
For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
