Wednesday, January 20, 2010

NATURAL GAS - CORRECTIVE SIGNAL


FUTURES: NAT GAS G'10 ** NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE **


Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE posture, working a slight positive signal bias against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT, however the threat of the return of the negative momentum must be respected as a good probability with all trading below the 5.624 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume. Until the MKT breaks the positive corrective structure, keep profit targets and position management tight as the neutral trading environment has the potential to keep the trade trendless. BREAKOUT strategies below the 5.432 support pivot can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a negative posture with the expectation that the negative trend is going to resume. Get into these trades sooner [higher] than later [lower], anticipating a return to the negative trend.

On the BUY side FADE strategies are valid off the 5.432 support level but should not risk much and incorporate aggressive position management to reduce profit giveback. The underlying momentum remains negative and any long opportunity is short term with no follow through potential. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided, as any break in momentum is a sign that the BEAR TREND is ready to resume. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 5.624 are aggressive and the better opportunity is to FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal. These strategies should have resting limit orders at resistance target inflection points. Consider a REVERSE roll if there is confluence with other like MKTS or other indicator studies. The trade is corrective and expectations are for a resumption of the negative momentum.

Note: The MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE position with the most likely outcome being a difficult sideways trade. The negative momentum has been broken, so beware of getting sucked into "false" failure especially early in the session. There is the potential for a sharp short covering rally so don't FADE a rise that continues to hold structure.


JS


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