Showing posts with label Futures: 30yr T-Bond. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Futures: 30yr T-Bond. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
US 30YR T-BOND Futures - CORRECTIVE
Technically the MKT has produced a big negative signal against a positive trend which will weigh on the MKT with all trading below the 134-04 Inflection Pivot.. Only a rise above here puts the contract back in a solid state.
On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets.
On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity. BREAKOUT strategies can risk a little more if current events confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
US 30YR T-BOND Futures - HOLD OR FOLD
Technically the MKT is at a NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME and is ready to either pop back into a firm neutral posture or break into a new down trend. The MKT has produced a technical sell signal into support and is in a "Hold or Fold" scenario. Volatility as well is on the fence and ready to rise with a new trend move and decline with some sideways "positioning".
130-12 is the base supporting the MKT from a negative shift. Don't fight weakness below here as emotions are expected to enter the equation. The 132-23 Inflection Pivot is the high point for any positive reaction today if the negative sentiment is going to weigh on the contract. Fade moves into this resistance until proven otherwise.
On the SELL side accept FADE and BREAKOUT strategies expecting an immediate follow through to the MKT's technical sell signal. BREAKOUT strategies should be worked with the expectation that any sustained trade and repeated tests of support will give way to negative follow through. This strategy is vulnerable to the MKT expanding its lower support band in a series of starts and stops. Keep profit targets extended to pay for any monies spent holding a position. FADE strategies should expect an immediate reaction as any held trade or violation of major resistance foreshadows a potential turning point. These are good opportunities to "roll" into a long position when stopped out.
On the BUY side FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major support base are qualified however the FADE is a lower probability and should use tight risk criteria. REVERSALs can risk more but should also go for more profit with the expectation of a turning point "key reversal" signal to play out. BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should just "go" and not look back. Risk less and go for more. A laborious lack-luster rise after a positive breakout is a sign that the MKT is more likely expanding its resistance lid for a new consolidation verses transition from negative to positive technical posture.
Note: The MKT has produced a negative signal but it is not confirmed and trending indicators do not support follow through in either direction at this time. The MKT has the potential for big range conditions so don't get stuck FADing momentum in either direction.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
US 30YR T-BOND Z'10 Futures - POSITIVE SIGNAL NEEDS CONFIRMATION
- Technically the MKT has produced a big positive signal and will need to sustain a trade above 134-15 to keep the buyers aggressive. A breach of 135-07 confirms a new leg higher. Only below 133-23 is the signal negated signaling a drop back into a digestive trade.
On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major resistance levels. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. Avoid SELL FADE strategies even with confirmation. SELL BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional resistance.
- On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session's low point. BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in structure. BUY FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift high.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
U.S. 30YR Treasury Bond Futures - TIME TO PLAY A CARD
Technically the MKT is in NEUTRAL TRANSITION and difficult trading conditions are expected. The MKT has produced a negative signal which should follow through today if the signal is valid with confirmation a break under the 126-19 Inflection Pivot. If the integrity of the 126-19 Inflection Pivot remains intact a return to a sideways trend less trade is likely. Roll with any new weakness below here and leverage up if good risk parameters present themselves. The potential to get in at the beginning of a new move lower is real.
On the SELL side be more aggressive after the 126-19 level is taken out. Not that this is a precondition but should be noted as a confirmation of weakness. BREAKOUT strategies below should just "go" so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any positive reaction off an unsuccessful downside BREAKOUT against the 127-14 level. Use a REVERSAL strategy to leverage up back under the original failure point. If the integrity of the 126-19 level hold, avoid REVERSAL strategies at the 128-09 resistance level as any break in the negative momentum is a positive signal that the MKT is going to return to its neutral posture. FADE strategies against here are recommended early in the session or near the end. The negative signal will either play out from the get go or will weigh on the MKT in the latter stages of the trading session.
On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of 126-19. Avoid this strategy on lower levels as any new weakness has the potential to be the beginning of a move. FADE strategies can be accepted at or near this inflection point on the initial test with tight profit target objectives. If the MKT has already had a reaction off this support area avoid this strategy. Use BREAKOUT strategies above 128-09 as a signal to FADE a negative pull-back off 127-14 after a confirm break in the negative momentum. Only take this trade if the 126-19 support remains intact. Otherwise this will be a SELL REVERSAL opportunity.
Note: Transitional trading conditions are difficult and can be full of false stops and starts. Be ready for a move but be prepared to work for it.
JS
* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .
To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
30YR US T-Bond - TRYING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE position with a positive bias above the 116-07 Inflection Pivot. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT but buying weakness above here is the better opportunity.
On the SELL side BREAKOUT strategies below 116-07 or the 115-18 support pivot are aggressive and should be entered sooner [higher] than later [lower]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding structure most of the day. If the MKT digests prior to making a negative move, it is more likely a squeeze on the longs to FADE. SELL FADE strategies against the 116-28 resistance pivot are aggressive as well and if they are going to work, should do so on the initial test of resistance. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a higher trade. SELL REVERSAL strategies at 116-28 are recommended off the session initial major resistance levels only as the MKT potential for positive trend shift. The probability is to the upside today so don't get stubborn selling strength.
On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above the 116-28 resistance pivot should just "go" and not look back, so keep risk parameters tight. FADE strategies off the 116-07 level after positive breakout signals are good opportunities as well but expectation should be for the MKT to quickly move back above violated resistance. If the trade just "hangs around", it is likely a signal that more digestive action is coming and a retest of support should be expected. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at the 115-18 support pivot or above the previous session low point, targeting the opposing digestive resistance at 116-28. Below the previous session low point, entering after the 2nd or 3rd test of support is recommended over stepping in front.
Note: The MKT is in neutral so "sloppy" conditions with "false signals" should be anticipated. Have a plan for any squeeze. Don't get stubborn, however, if the MKT starts to hold structure and gets into trend mode as the contract may just be expanding its digestive parameters producing a one way trade into the close and new extreme.
JS
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Wednesday, March 24, 2010
US 30YR T-BOND Futures - BEAR TREND EXTREME

Technically the MKT has produce a negative signal into the EXTREME of a BEAR TREND move and will need to hold structure if it is going to maintain an aggressive sell posture. Don't press it. Although the MKT is vulnerable a break in momentum has the potential to spark a sharp corrective rally.
Key off the 116-27 Inflection Pivot as the structure turning point.
On the SELL side downside BREAKOUT strategies below the 115-15 support pivot are valid and should continue to hold negative structure if they are going to extend. Get in to these trades sooner (higher) than later (lower) as new weakness is expected to be stop and go. A more conservative strategy is to FADE a positive reaction after a negative breakdown signal and even better to wait for a negative REVERSAL off this corrective rise rather than stepping in front of it. FADE and REVERSAL are recommended at 116-27, 117-16 and 118-05 especially after a sharp corrective rise. The MKT is negative but is also extended and the probability of a corrective rise is high. Wait for an exhaustive signals or confirmation to jump on.
On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 116-27 should have aggressive trail stops and tighter profit targets. There is a good chance for a corrective turn but profit targets and position management should be tight as this is more likely a rally to sell. If you get on, ride it until structure is broken and then look to go the other way. BUY REVERSAL strategies off the 115-15 and 114-24 support level will provide opportunity but will work best after a sharp trade lower verses a steady decline. Expectations are for no follow through not a reversal of sentiment. Keep risk management and profit targets tight to reduce giveback as the underlying technical foundation today is negative. Avoid FADE BUYS as the negative trend remains enforce with sell FADE opportunities the better place to step out.
Note: Just because the MKT is extended does not mean it cannot get more extended. Any long ideas should wait for a signal don't force one.
JS
Join our "LIVE" TRADE ROOM and watch JS Services transparent automated strategies trade these recommendations! For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Futures: US 30YR T-BOND - Negative Signal needs Confirmation
Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND but in a DIGESTIVE posture. The MKT has produced a big negative signal but has yet to confirm a shift into trend mode. Look for excuses to get short below the 118-21 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below the 117-08 support pivot may need to be "worked" as the big negative signal will have the sellers excited. FADE strategies against the 117-31 Directional after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well and can provide favorable area to put on leverage against structure. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at 118-21 or against the previous session high point targeting 117-08.
On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should be entered sooner [lower] than later [higher]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding strucutre most of the day producing a positive "reversal" signal. If the MKT digests prior to making a positive move it is more likely a short squeeze to FADE. BUY FADE strategies off the 117-08 support pivot are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a lower trade. BUY REVERSAL strategies here are not recommended as any failure is confirmation of a negative trend shift. The probability is to the downside today so don't get stubborn buying breaks.
Note: The MKT has produced a big negative signal and is flirting with a turn for the worse. If it does not follow through on any new weakness it is more likely a nuetral shift than a positive one.
JS
This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.
STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html
For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
BULL TREND CORRECTION SIGNAL for SP, DOW, MidCap400, 5yr, 30yr, BOBL, BUND, DAX, EuroStoxx and FTSE
The Strategy Based Trading approach is the focus on the applied strategy over a specific market. Define a strategy that you are comfortable with and apply that strategy in MKTs whose technical state is in line with your strategy criteria.
Today we are going to focus on MKTs that have produced a negative signal against an underlying positive trend or a BULL TREND CORRECTION signal state. The question, is this negative signal going to follow through or is this just a 1 day event and the underlying positive momentum is going to resume. The price point that answers this question and determines this "sentiment shift" is the session Inflection Pivot. This is the price point that defines the technical state from being a negative "corrective"posture below that price point to a positive BULL TREND position above that price point.
Trading below the session Inflection Pivot or what JS Services calls its REVERSAL LEVEL or R Level is negative keeping the CORRECTIVE SELL signal in play and the MKT vulnerable. Trading above this price point is an indication that the negative vulnerability of the MKT is reduced and there is a better chance that the underlying positive momentum is going to resume.
For OCTOBER 22, 2009 below are the MKTs that are in a BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state and the Inflection Pivot that determines the contiuation of the sell signal or a reversion to the underlying positive trend.
EQUITY FUTURES [DEC09]
SP500 1083.75
Dow Fut 9927
MidCap400 701.90
DAX 5785
EuroStoxx 2880
FTSE100 5230
INTEREST RATE FUTURES [DEC09]
US 30YR T-BOND 120-25
US 5YR T-NOTE 106-057
BUND 12183
BOBL 11528
Draw a line on your intra-day chart at these levels. Look for opporunty in the direction of the price bias. Executing at or near these price points will provide the best risk / reward. SELL FADE and BUY BREAKOUT should be considered as entry strategies at these levels.
Good Trading.
JS
Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria.
STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html
For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Tri
Today we are going to focus on MKTs that have produced a negative signal against an underlying positive trend or a BULL TREND CORRECTION signal state. The question, is this negative signal going to follow through or is this just a 1 day event and the underlying positive momentum is going to resume. The price point that answers this question and determines this "sentiment shift" is the session Inflection Pivot. This is the price point that defines the technical state from being a negative "corrective"posture below that price point to a positive BULL TREND position above that price point.
Trading below the session Inflection Pivot or what JS Services calls its REVERSAL LEVEL or R Level is negative keeping the CORRECTIVE SELL signal in play and the MKT vulnerable. Trading above this price point is an indication that the negative vulnerability of the MKT is reduced and there is a better chance that the underlying positive momentum is going to resume.For OCTOBER 22, 2009 below are the MKTs that are in a BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state and the Inflection Pivot that determines the contiuation of the sell signal or a reversion to the underlying positive trend.
EQUITY FUTURES [DEC09]
SP500 1083.75
Dow Fut 9927
MidCap400 701.90
DAX 5785
EuroStoxx 2880
FTSE100 5230
INTEREST RATE FUTURES [DEC09]
US 30YR T-BOND 120-25
US 5YR T-NOTE 106-057
BUND 12183
BOBL 11528
Draw a line on your intra-day chart at these levels. Look for opporunty in the direction of the price bias. Executing at or near these price points will provide the best risk / reward. SELL FADE and BUY BREAKOUT should be considered as entry strategies at these levels.
Good Trading.
JS
Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria.
STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html
For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Tri
Monday, October 12, 2009
US 30YR T-BOND - Is that it?
The Dec'09 30yr T-Bond found its footing and is and is trying to stabilize off the 119-20 inflection pivot. Technically this MKT is in a BULL TREND DIGESTION posture.

In this state the underlying tone is positive however a "stop and go" trade is likely. Where strong surges of optimism fizzle and are followed by sharp corrective action. This will be the mode above 119-20 and below 122-02. Within this price trade difficult trading conditions should be expected.
A rise above 122-02 is need to give the contract a confidence boost for a steady trend posture where the MKT starts to hold positive structure. As long as this is so the momentum will target 124-03.
A break under 119-20 puts the contract is a soft transitional trade and vulnerable to a hard retreat down to the 118-07 recent low point. Use caution. Emotional trading conditions are expected with 115-05 the current extreme.
Understanding the MKT's technical state and the inflection points that define that state is the foundation of a balanced trading approach. For a practical application review of JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach for the 30yr T-Bond last week [Oct 5-9] click here http://www.jsservices.com/recaps/JSSReviewUS105909.wmv .
JS
STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html
For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
US 30YR T-BOND - ON THE FENCE
The Dec'09 30yr T-Bond slipped lower and will remain vulnerable to further losses with all trading below the 122-05 Inflection Pivot. If yesterday's negative momentum is going to overwhelm this MKT it will not do much if any trading above here. If so expectations are for a run at the 123-02-122-30 resistance band. Be patient. This is the high point for any false hope. A breach of 123-02 confirms another strong push targeting 124-13.
A failure from 121-21 is a sign of weakness that if sustained has the potential to drop the MKT down to 120-29 and the 120-11-120-08 support band on any negative follow through. This move is expected to be relentless with not much in the way of pull backs. 119-09 and 118-14 are the extended targets.
JS
STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html
For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
A failure from 121-21 is a sign of weakness that if sustained has the potential to drop the MKT down to 120-29 and the 120-11-120-08 support band on any negative follow through. This move is expected to be relentless with not much in the way of pull backs. 119-09 and 118-14 are the extended targets.
JS
STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html
For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Risk Management Overlay Example - Recap 10/2/2009
Risk Management is what it is all about in trading the futures markets. Putting structure to random price action is what JS Services Price Map does. Below is a recap of Friday October 2nd action from Thursday's Blog post and the Price Map performance.
RECAP - October 2, 2009
INTEREST RATES
The world is ready for a little fireworks today as we kick off volatility month. Watch the Interest Rates today for confirmation of an event. The 30yr T-Bond basis Dec'09 has a major resistance inflection pivot at 123-23 and the Dec'09 10yr T-Note resistance pivot is at120-070. If the long end of the curve is going to stall out they each will show signs of strain here. A sustained breach of resistance in both contracts have the potential to launch and put the rest of the world on its head.
US 30YR T-BOND Z'09
* Notice how the 30yr reacted off the 123-23 resistance pivot defining the day for the MKT. This signal provided a clue that it was going to be business as usual for the rest of the world.
* The 10yr was unable to attain its major resistance and stalled out at a minor level but in confluence with the 30yr. Later in the session the 10yr action off the DIR [Directional level] provided a clue that the 30yr was vulnerable to further losses.
EQUITIES
In the Equities the Dec'09 SP500 can slip as low as 1011.50 without doing much damage to the MKTs underlying confidence. A held failure here and tings can get emotional with 994 and 977 targeted. A rise above the 1036.50 session Inflection Pivot will make yesterday's weakness look like a head fake and if the Interest Rates have rejected hard from their resistance it will be back to bidness as usual targeting 1063.
SP500 INDEX Z'09
* The 1011.50 level proved to be the key support inflection point for the Index. The negative reaction in the 30yr providing confidence that the MKT was due for a positive reaction off this level.
CURRENCY
The Dec'09 EUROFX is set for a big range day and remains in a corrective trade below the 14667 Inflection Pivot. A break under 14499 and yesterday's negative momentum has the potential to accelerate with 14415 and 14247 the lower targets. A rise above 14667 and the buyers will look to take back lost ground in a hurry, putting the recent highs at 14844 in jeopardy.
EUROFX Z'09
* Notice how the EUROFX provided a REVERSAL signal off the 14499 support pivot. The negative reaction in the 30yr providing confidence that no event was in play and a reaction up to the 14667 Inflection Pivot should be expected.
GOLD
Dec'09 GOLD is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE posture with 1005.8 the session Inflection Pivot. Draw a line here. Below this price the yellow metal is vulnerable to a drop down to 985.8-983.7 with the potential to go a low as 970.8. 933.3 is the current lower extreme. A rise above 1005.8 and the buyers will try to flex. If the interest is going to fizzle it will against 1015.8. A violation here and we could be in for the big one to the upside with 1033.9 and 1065.2 the initial targets.
GOLD Z'09
* As expected GOLD made a play for the 985.8 support level, however the negative REVERSAL in the 30yr cut the move short signaling a re-test of the 1005.8 Inflection Pivot. MKTs like to gravitate to their key pivotal areas when they are indecisive on what to do next.
* The NAT GAS MKT tried to press it to the downside but could not hold under the 4.388 support, producing a reaction back up to the 4.553 Inflection Pivot. As a confirmation to the positive REVERSAL signal the contract rotated up to the top of its expected digestive range at 4.716.
RECAP - October 2, 2009
INTEREST RATES
The world is ready for a little fireworks today as we kick off volatility month. Watch the Interest Rates today for confirmation of an event. The 30yr T-Bond basis Dec'09 has a major resistance inflection pivot at 123-23 and the Dec'09 10yr T-Note resistance pivot is at120-070. If the long end of the curve is going to stall out they each will show signs of strain here. A sustained breach of resistance in both contracts have the potential to launch and put the rest of the world on its head.
US 30YR T-BOND Z'09
* Notice how the 30yr reacted off the 123-23 resistance pivot defining the day for the MKT. This signal provided a clue that it was going to be business as usual for the rest of the world.
* The 10yr was unable to attain its major resistance and stalled out at a minor level but in confluence with the 30yr. Later in the session the 10yr action off the DIR [Directional level] provided a clue that the 30yr was vulnerable to further losses.
EQUITIES
In the Equities the Dec'09 SP500 can slip as low as 1011.50 without doing much damage to the MKTs underlying confidence. A held failure here and tings can get emotional with 994 and 977 targeted. A rise above the 1036.50 session Inflection Pivot will make yesterday's weakness look like a head fake and if the Interest Rates have rejected hard from their resistance it will be back to bidness as usual targeting 1063.
SP500 INDEX Z'09
* The 1011.50 level proved to be the key support inflection point for the Index. The negative reaction in the 30yr providing confidence that the MKT was due for a positive reaction off this level.
CURRENCY
The Dec'09 EUROFX is set for a big range day and remains in a corrective trade below the 14667 Inflection Pivot. A break under 14499 and yesterday's negative momentum has the potential to accelerate with 14415 and 14247 the lower targets. A rise above 14667 and the buyers will look to take back lost ground in a hurry, putting the recent highs at 14844 in jeopardy.
EUROFX Z'09
* Notice how the EUROFX provided a REVERSAL signal off the 14499 support pivot. The negative reaction in the 30yr providing confidence that no event was in play and a reaction up to the 14667 Inflection Pivot should be expected.
GOLD
Dec'09 GOLD is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE posture with 1005.8 the session Inflection Pivot. Draw a line here. Below this price the yellow metal is vulnerable to a drop down to 985.8-983.7 with the potential to go a low as 970.8. 933.3 is the current lower extreme. A rise above 1005.8 and the buyers will try to flex. If the interest is going to fizzle it will against 1015.8. A violation here and we could be in for the big one to the upside with 1033.9 and 1065.2 the initial targets.
GOLD Z'09
* As expected GOLD made a play for the 985.8 support level, however the negative REVERSAL in the 30yr cut the move short signaling a re-test of the 1005.8 Inflection Pivot. MKTs like to gravitate to their key pivotal areas when they are indecisive on what to do next.
ENERGY
Nov'09 NAT GAS is flirting with disaster. Key off the 4.553 Inflection Pivot for an indication for he session tone. Below here yesterday's BEAR TREND ACCELERATION signal keeps the controls with a failure from 4.388 confirming the signal targeting 4.035 on any negative follow through. A rise above 4.553 delays the inevitable for a difficult trade up to 4.716. If the aggressive sellers are going to return they will enter here. If not a positive shift into neutral is the outlook with 5.030 the upper digestive extreme.
NAT GAS X'09
* The NAT GAS MKT tried to press it to the downside but could not hold under the 4.388 support, producing a reaction back up to the 4.553 Inflection Pivot. As a confirmation to the positive REVERSAL signal the contract rotated up to the top of its expected digestive range at 4.716.
Having a RISK MANAGEMENT OVERLAY provides structure. Understanding structure allows you to anticipate opportunity not react to it. This is the difference between marginal and great success. Get the edge.
JS
For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Monday, September 28, 2009
US 30YR T-BOND - BULL TREND DIGESTION

The Dec'09 US 30YR T-Bond is back pressing good directional resistance are 121-31. If the MKT is going to remain in a digestive state any positiver push today will exhaust here. A held breach is a fresh positive signal that will put the 122-24 target in reach during the session. Expect a reaction but don't get turned around. Sustained trading at these levels forecasts a run at the 123-23-123-19 resistance band.

121-06 is today's Inflection Pivot, defining the session bias. Above here the contract will be bid into resistance at 121-31 and below here offered into support at 120-13. This is the low point for any weakness today if the MKT is going to remain in a digestive state. Accept FADE and REVERSAL signals off this support. Don't fight a held trade under 120-13 however as the Bears will be poised to take a bite putting the 118-12 support target back in play.
The MKT is in a BULL TREND DIGESTIVE state so the bias remains underlying positive however sideways within the 121-31-120-13 Critical Range with 121-06 the directional pivot. A breach of either range extreme will tee the sentiment bias into Friday's figures.
JS
Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria.Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html
For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
Monday, September 14, 2009
30YR T-Bond - Digestive Bull Trend

The Dec'09 US 30yr T-Bond is stuck in a Digestive Bull Trend today in a difficult roll. Expect the contract to stay on the soft side below 120-12, targeting 119-06 on any new weakness. Stay nimble. This is a major directional area for the underlying sentiment and the session Inflection Pivot. Expect a bounce and accept any REVERSAL signals. Only a held failure here signals a negative turn targeting 116-30 initially.
A rise above 120-12 and the Bulls will try to run with it targeting 121-18 on any positive showing. Don't press it. More stop and go action is expected.
JS
This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
US 30yr T-Bond - Negative Signal Needs Confirmation
The DEC'09 US 30YR T-Bond is on the defensive and threatening to roll over. A held trade below 119-14 keeps the contract on the defensive pressing support at 118-06. If the MKT is going to stabilize it will here. If not a play for the 116-30 and 116-23 support area is expected in the session. Use caution. Negative sentiment has the potential to feed on itself, putting the 114-09 level in play. 112-145 is the current extreme.
A rise above 119-24 is needed to take the edge off for a price move up to the 120-18 Inflection Pivot. Keep it tight. This is the high point for any buying if the negative momentum is going to turn the bias. A breach of 120-18 removes the negative threat putting new move highs up to 122-28 back on the menu. Expect more stop and go action.
JS
This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
30yr Treasury Bond - Vulnerable
The 30yr took a tumble and is threatening to return to the aggressive sell campaign. FADE strength against the 118-06 Inflection Pivot expecting the worst. A break under 116-065 is need to confirm any new move lower. A failure here should be pressed with expectations of the market making a play for the 112-195 level. Use caution. Things have the potential to get emotional.

A rise above 118-06 removes the negative threat signaling more big digestive action with 120-075 the immediate target for any positive turn of events.
JS
This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

A rise above 118-06 removes the negative threat signaling more big digestive action with 120-075 the immediate target for any positive turn of events.
JS
This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.
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