Thursday, January 31, 2013

WHEAT

Today's MARKET STATE for WHEAT: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.
- On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal. UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation first.
- On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back. DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for W

 


Wrap Up
- With a MC Value of +2 the WHEAT market has a slight positive tone in a NEUTRAL Primary Technical State.  With the R Level being placed at the minor level below the DP the analyst is "expanding the Critical Range".  If the DP is breached, the breaking point for the positive Sentiment for the session is at the R Level.  The market sold off sharply from the DIR, took out the DP and eventually found Support at the R Level.  This presented traders with an opportunity to get long from the R with the expectation that market would retrace back into the Critical Range.  As it played out, the low for the day was right at our R Level, allowing traders to enter long the market at the optimal entry point and ride the trade all the way up to the DIR, where profits could have been realized around 11:30 AM.  By identifying the market state expectations as well as the key inflection point for the session, traders were able to successfully navigate the choppy price action in the WHEAT futures market.