Thursday, January 7, 2010

FOREX - USDJPY - Positive Signal

FOREX - USDJPY - BULL TREND ACCELERATION

Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION posture and has produced a big positive signal. The MKT is in "play" and remains a buying opportunity down to the 9188 Inflection Pivot. Anticipate opportunity and position management adjustments, as quick price action is likely.


On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off the 9408 and 9471 resistance levels. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline folowing a reversal signal and it more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so in either scenerio keep position management tight. Avoid SELL FADE strategies even with confirmation, as this is more likely a lid for a BREAKOUT BUY strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 9188 are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against the 9345 Directional reisstance.

On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies off the major support levels. BREAKOUT strategies above 9408 should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in strucutre. BUY FADE strategies are recommended off the 9219 and 9188 support levels over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.

Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert to recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades consider taking the next sell signal anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher it should just go. If not there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment.

JS

This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.
STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html
For more information please contact me at
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