Tuesday, June 1, 2010

NAT GAS Futures - CORRECTIVE SIGNAL


Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE position and has produced a negative signal. The MKT is in Neutral so if it does not follow through on its negative signal the potential for a whiplash rally is high.


Key off the 4.154 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. A held trade above here keeps the underlying tone positive.


On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 4.154 may need to be "worked" as the neutral position will produce some starts and stops. FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal at 4.227 are good opportunities as well but expectation should be for the MKT to quickly move back under the failed support. If the trade just "hangs around" is more likely a signal that more digestive action is coming and a retest of resistance should be expected. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at 4.300 or against the previous session high point targeting the opposing digestive support. Above the previous session high point enterying after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area is recomended over stepping in front of the initial challenge.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 4.300 are aggressive and should be entered sooner [lower] than later [higher]. Expectations should be for the MKT to reversing yesterday's negative signal and holding strucutre after a positive signal. If the MKT digests prior to making a positive move it is more likely a short squeeze to FADE. BUY FADE strategies off 4.154 are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a lower trade. BUY REVERSAL strategies are recommended off 4.154 only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift.

Note: The MKT has produced a negative signal in a neutral environment. This is teither the beging of a new trend move south or a press into the negative extreme which is about to snap back. Don't get tied into either opinion and let the MKT tell you what is.


JS


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