Thursday, March 14, 2013

EURO CURRENCY

Today's MARKET STATE for EURO CURRENCY **NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME**

- Technically the MKT is at an extreme and is ready to either pop back into a firm neutral posture or break into a new down trend. On the SELL side immediate follow through to the MKT's technical sell signal should be expected. DP BREAKOUT strategies should be worked with the expectation that any sustained trade and repeated tests of support will give way to negative follow through. This strategy is vulnerable to the MKT, expanding its lower support band in a series of starts and stops. UP and DIR FADE strategies should expect an immediate reaction as any held trade or violation of major resistance foreshadows a potential turning point. These are good opportunities to "roll" into a long position when stopped out.
- On the BUY side DP FADE and REVERSAL strategies are qualified, however the FADE is a lower probability and should use tight risk criteria. DP REVERSALS can risk more but should also go for more profit with the expectation of a turning point "key reversal" signal to play out. UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should just "go" and not look back. Risk less and go for more. A laborious lackluster rise after a positive breakout is a sign that the MKT is more likely expanding its resistance lid for a new consolidation versus transition from negative to positive technical posture.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for EU









Wrap Up
- Today in the EURO CURRENCY market there was a NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME market state.  The market is in a pivotal posture and will either transition into a BEAR TREND or pop back into a NEUTRAL posture.  The market sold off to the DP in the early morning session which would prove to be the KEY INFLECTION point for today's session.  If the market breaks down from the DP and continues lower, the market could be transitioning into a BEAR TREND.  However, if the market respects this level, the expectation is for a pop back into the Critical Range.  As it played out, our RSI indicator gave us a BULLISH DIVERGENCE at the DP giving us a "tell" that the market was going to respect this level and pop back into a NEUTRAL posture.  This gave us confidence to accept the BUY DP REVERSAL trade and ride profits all the way up to the UP.