Tuesday, March 16, 2010
10YR T-NOTE - Positive Signal needs confirmation
Technically the MKT is in a DIGESTIVE BULL TREND and is flirting with a shift into a more aggressive positive position with all trading above the 117-000 Inflection Pivot. Look for excuses to get long above here but respect the digestive nature and avoid pressing any position.
On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies against 117-150 and 117-225 and use a REVERSAL instead. The MKT is excited but has yet to confirm any new advance. Expectations are that any false positive breakout signal will be met with a sharp negative reaction. BREAKOUT strategies below 117-000 are a lower probability but are valid and in line with a reversal scenario. If the MKT has already produced a false positive signal and is holding negative reversal structure, this strategy has potential. Expectations are that any negative BREAKOUT should just go and with the MKT staying under pressure into the close and expanding the digestive range. Anticipate a positive turn and consider reversing off lower support structure.
On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies. BREAKOUT strategies above 117-150 have the potential to run. If so, they will just "go" and not look back. Any stop and go action and any profits should be realized as it is more likely the MKT will be setting up a re-test of support to FADE before it can extend higher. FADE and REVERSAL strategies should work off 117-000 and only provide one opportunity. Repeated tests or base building and it is more likely the MKT is going to search for its lower digestive extreme rather than resume a positive course.
Note: The MKT has produced a positive signal but is not confirmed. Be ready for it but if it does not materialize, beware of a negative reaction. Don't get caught fading a break that continues to hold structure as the MKT may be defining its lower digestive extreme and will most likely find it after it hits your last sell stop.
JS
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