Thursday, April 11, 2013

NATURAL GAS


Today's MARKET STATE NATURAL GAS **BULL TREND**

- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.



Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG




Wrap Up
Today was a good day for our NATURAL GAS traders as the structure of the Critical Range offered valid trading opportunities.  With a BULL TREND market state, the expectation is for a continuation of the underling bull trend which would be depicted on the chart through higher move highs and higher move lows (positive structure).  However, the market made a lower move low just before 8:00 am CT, negating the bull trend signal and shifting toward a neutral digestive expectation.  With this signal, traders would be advised to lean on their momentum oscillators and Bollinger Band tactics to identify possible trading opportunities.  Since the sentiment remains + above the R Level, BUY strategies are recommended.  As the market peeked its head below the DP, there was a BULLISH DIVERGENCE signal in the RSI lows that occurred around 5:30 am CT.  This signal, along with the price contacting the lower BB gave traders an early indication that the BUY DP REVERSAL strategy was valid.  This proved to be the trade of the day as the market exploded topside after flirting with the DP and eventually rallied up to our UP.