NASDAQ 100 Futures - NEW BEST FRIEND

Technically the MKT has produced a big positive signal and flirting with a shift into BULL TREND ACCELERATION position. Key off the 2010.50 Inflection Pivot. If the MKT is good it will maintain a trade above here and railroad higher. A breach of 2028.25 confirms this outlook targeting 2092 on any held advance. A break under 1992.75 removes the friendly feelings for this contract.

On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major resistance levels. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline following a reversal signal and it more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so in either scenario keep position management tight. Avoid SELL FADE strategies even with confirmation, as this is more likely a lid for a BREAKOUT BUY strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional Resistance.

On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous sessions low point. BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in structure. BUY FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.

Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert to recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades consider taking the next sell signal anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher it should just go. If not there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com  . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/  and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

NASDAQ 100 INDEX Futures - PAUSE FOR THE CAUSE

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT.

Key off the 1999.50-1994.25 support band for an indication of the session tone. Above the 1994.25 Inflection Pivot the underlying momentum maintains a positive tone. A held failure here confirms yesterday's negative signal targeting 1966.50 and 1957.50 on any new losses. Expect no follow through. A rise above 2032 is needed to bring back the aggressive bid targeting 2062.75 on any revival.


On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1st major resistance level. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its negative signal any strength is just a "head fake " before it follows through. SELL BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is corrective and the underlying positive tone must be respected.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture with the expectation that the Bull Trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positive breakout signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to move in either direction. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it.

JS



* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com  . You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/  and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Nasdaq 100 Index Futures - ON THE HOT SEAT

Technically the MKT is in NEUTRAL TRANSITION and difficult trading conditions are expected. The MKT has produced an aggressive sell signal which should weigh on the MKT today if the signal is valid. If the integrity of the prior session's low remains intact a return to a sideways trend less trade is likely. Roll with any new weakness and leverage up if good risk parameters present themselves. The potential to get in at the beginning of a new move lower is real.

Key off the 1858.50 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone. Below here the negative signal is in play and the MKT vulnerable.

On the SELL side be more aggressive after the previous session low is taken out. Not that this is a pre-condition but should be noted as a confirmation of weakness. BREAKOUT strategies below 1836.75 should just "go" so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any positive reaction off an unsuccessful downside BREAKOUT against 1858.50. Use a REVERSAL strategy to leverage up back under the original failure point. If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, avoid REVERSAL strategies as expectations are that the "negative" signal is going to follow through it should do so straight away and any break in the negative momentum is a positive signal that the MKT is going to return to its neutral posture. FADE strategies against 1877.75 are recommended early in the session or near the end. The negative signal will either play out from the get go or will weigh on the MKT in the latter stages of the trading session.

On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off the 1836.75 or near the previous session low point. Avoid this strategy on lower levels as any new weakness has the potential to be the beginning of a move. If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact FADE strategies can be accepted at or near this inflection point on the initial test with tight profit target objectives. If the MKT has already had a reaction off this support area avoid this strategy. Use BREAKOUT strategies above 1877.75 as a signal to FADE a negative pull-back at 1858.50. Only take this trade if the previous session low point remains intact. Otherwise this will be a SELL REVERSAL opportunity.

Note: This is a dangerous emotional trading environment. You should expect the MKT reactions to go a little further that you expect in either direction so anticipate this in your position and risk management.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv .

To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

NASDAQ 100 INDEX Futures - LOOKING FOR LOVE

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL TRANSITION with the potential for a positive turn. Opportunity exists on both sides however there is a better chance of acceleration to the upside if the integrity of the previous session low remains intact.

Key off the the 1818 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session bias. A held trade above here keeps the positive opportunity in play.

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support has been broken to confirm a shift in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy at the 1864.50 resistance pivot. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a negative shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 1818 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should use the same aggressive position management as a REVERSAL. Risk less go for more.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current negative to positive transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on BREAKOUT strategies off 1841.25 and 1864.50 as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for negative reactions after a positive signal to FADE at 1841.25 or 1818. The trade should be fluid with the MKT immediately taking back lost ground after any downside squeeze.

Note: The MKT is trying to shift from a negative to a positive trend position. False starts and stops should be expected and position management adjustment anticipated, as quick momentum turns are the norm in this technical environment.

JS


* ENTRY STRATEGY - 5min web video explaining FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies http://www.jsservices.com/education/sbt/CME_EntryStrategies5min.wmv  .

To learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

NASDAQ 100 Index Futures: FUN AND GAMES

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however buying breaks above the 1880.50 Inflection Pivot is the best bet. 1880.25 is the low point for any weakness today if the underlying posiitve momentum is going to keep pace.

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 1st major resistance level at 1913.50. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its negative signal any stength is just a "head fake " before it follows through. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 1880.50 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is corrective and the underlying positive tone must be respected.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies off 1880.50, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 1913.50 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture with the expectation that the Bull Trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction after a positve breakout signal at 1897 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to move in either direction. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it.

JS

Learn more about JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach using CLEARBOX automated strategies! For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/ and sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Strategy Based Trading - Bull Trend Correction Signal

Continuing with the BULL TREND CORRECTION focus the ETF sector indices have provided us with the most opportunity for this signal state. Each MKT presented has produced a negative signal against an underlying positive trend. Is this signal going to follow through to the downside or is this just an opportunity to re-enter a positively trending MKT. * Please read the previous posts for the week on BULL TREND CORRECTION as well as the webvidoe tutorial links.

To answer this question we look at the MKTs behavioral state and the specific price point or inflection pivot where sentiment for the signal is confirmed or denied. Trading at this price point is optimal however aligning your signal acceptance to the sentiment bias in the BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state will enhance your performance.


For today, September 24 2009 - The following MKTs are in a BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state:

ND = ND100 Index Dec'09 – 1706.75 Inflection Pivot
QQQQ = Power shares QQQ Trust – 42.01 Inflection Pivot
SPY = SP500 Index Dep Rcpt – 106.75 Inflection Pivot
SOX = PHLX Semiconductor Sector – 328.90 Inflection Pivot
BTK = Biotechnology Index – 960.33 Inflection Pivot
OSX = PHLX Oil Services Sector – 195.95 Inflection Pivot
XAL = AMEX Airline Index – 28.42 Inflection Pivot
AUDJPY = FOREX – 7962 Inflection Pivot

FUTURE
ND100 Z'09 – The Index produced a negative signal against a positive trend, which will remain in force above the 1706.75 Inflection Pivot. Above here any weakness is an opportunity to buy. A failure from 1706.75 is needed to confirm the negative signal and sentiment shift.

ETF
QQQQ - The Index produced a negative signal against a positive trend, which will remain in force above the 42.01 Inflection Pivot. Above here any weakness is an opportunity to buy. A failure from 42.01 is needed to confirm the negative signal and sentiment shift.

ETF
SOX - The Semiconductor Index posted a new move high close but settling at the low end of the range produced a negative corrective signal. Above the 328.90 Inflection Pivot it is all noise with the uptrend firmly in command. A break below 328.90 is needed to shift sentiment out of the aggressive buy posture into a neutral or transition posture.

ETF
BTK - The Biotechnology sector produced a negative signal against a positive trend and will remain vulnerable to further losses with all trading below the 960.33 Inflection Pivot. Only above here does the underlying positive momentum engage.

ETF
SPY - The SPYders posted a negative BULL TREND CORRECTION signal and will remain vulnerable to further losses below the 106.75 Inflection Pivot. A rise above 106.75 removes the threat with expectations for a firm neutral trade.

ETF
OSX – The Oil Services Sector Index posted a negative BULL TREND CORRECTION signal and will remain vulnerable to further losses below the 195.95 Inflection Pivot. A rise above 195.95 is needed to put the BULL TREND back in play.

ETF
XAL - The Airline Sector Index produced a negative signal against a positive trend, which will remain in force above the 28.42 Inflection Pivot. Above here any weakness is an opportunity to buy. A failure from 28.42 is needed to confirm the negative signal and sentiment shift.

FOREX
AUDJPY – The Aussie Yen is flirting with a sentiment shift below the 7962 Inflection Pivot. A held trade below here will keep the contract on edge and the BULL TREND CORRECTIVE signal in play. Only above 7962 is the signal negated and the currency set for a digestive trade.

The MKTs presented are "technically" in play, in a BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state, providing opportunity on both sides of the MKT. For MKTs above their Inflection Pivot [ND100, QQQQ, SOX, XAL] look for positive entry opportunities especially a REVERSAL entry strategy off support.

For MKTs below their Inflection Pivot [BTK, SPY, OSX, AUDJPY] all buy signals should use reduced size or not be accepted until the MKT is back above its Inflection Pivot. Once above the Inflection Pivot an aggressive buy position can be resumed with the expectation of the resumption of the positive trend. As long as the MKT is below the Inflection Pivot sell signals can be accepted, however it is a counter trend move so smaller size should be used.

JS

Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

NASDAQ 100 - Corrective Negative Signal

The Sep'09 NASDAQ 100 broke positive structure and will remain vulnerable to further losses with all trading below the 1592.50 Inflection Pivot. This is the high point for any buying today if the Corrective Signal is going to play out. The 1545.25-1544 support has the potential to spoil any negative turn and a reaction should be expected.

A failure from 1544 and the pressure will start to feed on itself down to the 1512.75-1504.75 support band. Tighten up your risk. If the underlying positive momentum is going to resume the MKT will build a base here. If not the sell off can extend down to 1391.75 before it stabilizes.

A rise above 1592.50 takes the MKT off edge and puts it back in a firm neutral posture with 1641 the new digestive lid.

JS

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

NASDAQ100 emini - Excitable

The Index jumped higher in early trading and is fast approaching big directional resistance at 1479.25. If the rally is going to stall it will here. A violation and the excitement has the potential to extend up to 1497.50-1496.25 before the sellers try to keep things under control. Expect a reaction.


Trading at these levels is positive however the rally is lacking indicator support which will need to kick in if this is the beginning of something bigger with a 1597.75 initial objective.




1445.25 is today's Inflection Pivot. Above here the buyers will remain aggressive. If we get an opportunity expect it to be "touch and go" if the positive excitement is going to return. A held failure from 1445.25 puts the bullish signal in question and the MKT back in a messy digestive trade.

JS

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

NASDAQ 100 - REACHING

1522 Inflection Pivot

The NASDAQ100 JUN'09 Contract is reaching and looks set for one more exhaustive push, setting up a short-term opportunity for today. If we do get another surge expectations are that the rise will exhaust either at 1499 or 1522 Inflection Pivot. Look for Reversal strategies off the 1499 resistance and be more aggressive at 1522, especially if we get a press into this area early in the session.

The outlook is for more of a big digestive trade rather than a reversal. Good opportunity to buy a put spread as an emotional trade has the potential to heat up volatility for a short-term opportunity.

A break under 1430 is needed to signal a pause in the aggressive buying, targeting 1384 on any negative turn. Be patient. If the Index is going to build a base for another advance it will do so from here. If not the contract is vulnerable to a sharp drop back down to the 1338-1336 support area. No follow through is expected at this time.

JS

NASDAQ 100 Review

The positive signal on May 18, could not follow through running into a wall at our resistance Inflection Pivot at the end of the session.

The technical posture has shifted into firm digestion from positive acceleration.

1379 is the inflection pivot to key off today. A held trade under this support will need confirmation below 1373 to negate Monday's positive signal. If so a shift in sentiment should be expected with the potential to drop the Index down to 1347.50 and 1336.50 in the session.

If yesterday's rejection was real the contract will not do much if any trading above 1399.75. If so a re-test of yesterday's high at 1410.50 is the outlook. Expect a reaction but roll with a violation. Above this resistance inflection pivot a price acceleration should be anticipated.

JS

NASDAQ 100 TIME TO PLAY A CARD

The JUN'09 NASDAQ100 jumped higher in an impressive show of strength. If this move is for real it will maintain a trade above the 1373 Inflection Pivot. Any test of this support will be short lived with only 1 headfake squeeze if yesterday's positive signal is going to follow through.

A breach of the 1409.75 resistance is needed to confirm the positive signal targeting 1472.75 on any held advance.

A held trade below the 1373 Inflection pivot and a sideways digestive trade is expected. Only under the 1337-1335 support does sentiment shift negative.

JS