Wednesday, August 1, 2012

EURO CURRENCY

Today's MARKET STATE for EURO CURRENCY: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**

- MKT sentiment is leaning negative and will outweigh the buy side if the integrity of the previous session high remains intact.
- On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current negative transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on DP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for positive reactions after a negative signal to FADE the DIR.
- On the BUY side avoid DP FADE strategies until after the previous session high point has been taken out. Until then, a better opportunity will be a DP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a positive shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. UP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for EU













Wrap Up
- The NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION Market State is a unique state in which the market has been digesting for some time, and today could mark the beginning of a new move.  With the R Level at the UP, the probability is to the downside, and the highest probability trade is a SELL UP FADE with the expectation that price will begin a new move lower.  Price action tested the UP around 2:30 A.M. giving the trader the SELL UP FADE opportunity that we were looking for.  Profits could have been taken at the DIR; however, given the Market State, there is a higher probability for a follow through on the move, and the DP should be our target.  This trade would have required patience; however, after testing the DIR twice previously in the session, the breakout of the DIR confirmed the direction of the market and offered the trader an opportunity to add leverage to his or her position.  The market quickly sold off the the DP presenting an opportune time to take profits.