5YR TREASURY NOTES

Today's MARKET STATE for 5YR TREASURY NOTES: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
 

-The MKT is in a digestive position with a negative technical bias.  On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT, and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points.  DP SELL BREAKOUT strategies should just “go” and not look back.  DIR FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well.  If the trade just “hangs around” after a breakdown signal, it is likely that more digestive action is to come.  Be more aggressive with UP FADE and REVERSAL strategies and resistance inflection points at or against the previous session high point.

-On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should hold structure if they are good.  DP BUY FADE strategies are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support.  Repeated tests are more likely to give way to a lower trade.  BUY REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the DP only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift.  The probability is to the downside today so don’t get stubborn buying breaks.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for FV

Wrap Up
- In a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state, our expectation is for a sideways trading session with the upper and lower boundaries at the UP and DP within our Price Map.  However, if the market does breakout of this Critical Range, our expectation is for a move of two APMD.  Today in the 5YR TREASURY NOTES we had a downside breakout from the DP generating a SELL DP BREAKOUT signals which was confirmed by price action under the R Level.  With this strategy, our expected target is the DT2 and, as you can see, the market did in fact make it all the way down to our price target at 124'045.

DOW FUTURES

Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

-The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult “choppy” trade.  On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets.  The probability is to the downside but is not a day to press it.

-On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR.  DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as “sloppy” trading conditions are expected.  Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing.  Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM

Wrap Up
- The slight negative bias in our NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state was reiterated by the R Level being at the upper end of our Critical Range, the UP.  This signaled traders to look to get short the market from below this level.  Around 9:00 AM the market began to sell off sharply from our DIR.  When price broke through our DP just before 9:30, traders were able to get short the market with a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy.  With these breakout strategies, we expect to get a move of two APMD (Average Price Map Distance), in this case, the DT2.  The market shot right down to our DT1 where it found support briefly, before continuing down and forming a double bottom formation right at the DT2 level.  Today's action serves as proof that defining market state, structure and strategy is essential to successful trading.

WHEAT

Today's MARKET STATE for WHEAT: **BEAR TREND CORRECTION**

-Technically the MKT momentum is counter trend and will need a strong showing to overcome the underlying negative threat.

-On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies off the UP or near the previous session or move high will work best. DIR or DP BREAKOUT should just go.  A better option is to FADE positive reactions against the DIR after a negative signal.

-On the BUY side accept FADE and BREAKOUT strategies.  BREAKOUT should expect some “start and stops” The trade is corrective and sharp positive surges can be erased in a hurry.  FADE will work if the corrective state is going to continue.  REVERSAL strategies are a lower probability as a break in structure should be considered a potential negative shift in momentum.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for W

Wrap Up
- The WHEAT market had produced a corrective signal in an underlying bear trend; however, the analyst has placed the R Level at the UP signaling to traders that the opportunity is on the short side of the market below this key inflection point.  The market was trading around the DIR at midnight when it began its descent.  After showing no signs of follow through on the corrective signal, the market broke out to the downside where traders could have entered the market with a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy.  These breakout strategies usually expect to go for the 2nd target, in this instance, the DT2.  The market stabilized briefly at the DT1 around 10 A.M. and then continued lower to our profit target at the DT2.

CANADIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE for CANADIAN DOLLAR: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

-The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult “choppy” trade.  On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets.  The probability is to the downside but is not a day to press it.

-On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR.  DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as “sloppy” trading conditions are expected.  Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing.  Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CD

Wrap Up
- Today in the CANADIAN DOLLAR market we had an MC Value of 0 and a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state.  Our expectation as traders, is for a sideways choppy trading environment.  The analyst has placed the R Level above the Critical Range indicating to traders that the opportunity is to the downside in today's session.  Around 7:30 A.M. we are given the SELL DP BREAKOUT signal that our market commentary tells us to look for.  Entering the market on the short side from this level proved profitable, as the market sold off through the DT1 and eventually found support at the minor level at 1.0030.

GOLD

Today's MARKET STATE for GOLD: **BEAR TREND**

-The MKT is in a soft neutral position.  On the SELL side UP REVERSAL and FADE strategies with confirmation will be a better option over downside BREAKOUTS, as selling into corrective reactions is the best position.  The MKT remains negative but be patient as to not get caught FADING a corrective rise all the way up.  DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid opportunities but look to take profits on emotional drops versus getting trail stopped on corrective pull backs.

- On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies should be looked at as a “one-shot” deal.  Either the MKT railroads higher in a steady climb or it’s just a head fake to sell.  If you get on a steady advance, ride it until structure is broken.  DP and DT1 REVERSAL strategies are valid, as the neutral tone has the potential to produce false signals in either direction.  Avid DP FADE BUYS as the negative trend remains in force.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for GC

Wrap Up
- With an MC Value of -5, the GOLD futures market followed through on the BEAR TREND market state signal.  The break in structure at the DP around 10:30 allowed traders to get short the market with a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy.  With the market transitioning lower, we usually expect a move of 2 APMD, in this case, to the DT2.  The market stabilized at the DT1 for a brief moment around 11:30 before continuing all the way down to our profit objective at the DT2.

DOW FUTURES

Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES: **BULL TREND CORRECTION**

-The MKT has produced a big negative signal against an underlying positive trend.  On the SELL side accept UP FADE signals on the 1^st or 2^nd press into the area only.  REVERSAL strategies should only be done off the UP or the previous session high point and will immediately work if they are going to.  Keep position management tight on these trades.  SELL DP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive but do have potential to be the start of a larger corrective turn.  Keep risk management tight.

-On the BUY side accept REVERSAL signals off all major inflection levels, expecting the underlying positive momentum to resume.  DP FADE strategies will work better with confirmation as the MKT is in a corrective state and will be probing lower looking for soft spots.  Work any BUY DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies as any positive shift in momentum has the potential to be the start of the next leg higher.  DIR FADE strategies after the UP Breakout should use greater leverage.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM

 

Wrap Up
- Today in the DOW FUTURES market we had a corrective signal against an underlying positive trend.  If we are to get any follow through on the corrective signal, it should occur BELOW the R Level.  Around 8:45 A.M. price traded above the R Level signaling to traders that the underlying positive trend may be resuming.  After selling off back to the R around 9:30, the market found support at this level, allowing traders to get long the market from the R Level in anticipation of a resumption of the positive trend.  This proved to be the correct trade as the market rallied past the UT1 to end the session.

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Good Trading!

WHEAT

Today's MARKET STATE for WHEAT: **BEAR TREND**

-Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer.  On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals.  The MKT is on the edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity.  Anticipate a price “zone” around a major resistance point to FADE.  Have a plan and be ready.  If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk.

- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off.  This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points.  Avoid DP FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy.  UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for W

Wrap Up
- Today in the MAR '13 WHEAT contracts, we had an MC Value of -7 producing a BEAR TREND signal.  With the R Level at the UP, we are looking to get short this market aggressively at major Price Map levels.  The market gave us an opportunity to do this at the DIR around 6 A.M.  From here, the market sold off down to the DP, where it had a brief bounce, before continuing lower beyond our minor level at 804.00.  Being cognizant of the MKT state and appropriate strategies to implement in that state allowed JS traders to capitalize on this opportunity.

5YR TREASURY NOTES

Today's MARKET STATE for 5YR TREASURY NOTES: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

-The MKT is in a digestive position with a negative technical bias.  On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT, and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points.  DP SELL BREAKOUT strategies should just “go” and not look back.  DIR FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well.  If the trade just “hangs around” after a breakdown signal, it is likely that more digestive action is to come.  Be more aggressive with UP FADE and REVERSAL strategies and resistance inflection points at or against the previous session high point.

-On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should hold structure if they are good.  DP BUY FADE strategies are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support.  Repeated tests are more likely to give way to a lower trade.  BUY REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the DP only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift. 

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for FV

Wrap Up
- With an MC Value of -1 we had a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state today in the 5YR T-NOTES.  Since we are in a NEUTRAL market environment, we know to expect a sideways, choppy trading session...and that is exactly what we got.  However, JS traders were still able to profit in today's market by utilizing the key inflection points of the Price Map as well as the Sentiment Bias represented by the R Level.  Around 11:30 A.M. the market spiked up to our expected level of resistance at our upside pivot (UP).  This allowed traders to execute a SELL UP FADE strategy with the expectation that the market would reject this level and trade back into the Critical Range.  this is exactly what happened as the market violently reversed and traded down to the DP where profits should have been realized.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE for AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR **BULL TREND**

-The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight. REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.

-On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA

Wrap Up
Today in the Australian Dollar futures market we had an MC Value of +5 producing a BULL TREND market state.  This signaled traders to look for an excuse to get long the market.  Buying the DIR breakout strategy proved to be profitable as the MKT continued higher, taking our the UP and eventually trading up to the minor level at 1.0526

DAX INDEX

Today's MARKET STATE for DAX INDEX **BULL TREND**
 

-The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long.  On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal.  Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR.  Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.

-On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity.  If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop.  If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DAX

 

Wrap Up
Today in the DAX futures market we had an MC Value of +7 indicating a BULL TREND market state.  The R Level is below the Critical Range, indicating to traders that the opportunity is to the long side above this level.  The market sold off during the overnight session and offered traders a BUY DP FADE opportunity.  This trade proved to be profitable, as the market found support at the DP, traded above the DIR, and eventually stabilized around our minor level above the DIR.

CANADIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE for CANADIAN DOLLAR **BULL TREND ACCELERATION**
 

-Technically the MKT is in play after producing a big positive signal.  On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off the UP and +c.  Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area.  Avoid SELL UP FADE strategies even with confirmation.  SELL DP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against the DIR.

 -UP BREAKOUT strategies should just “go”, so do not risk much.  Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1^st break in structure.  BUY DP FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CD

 

Wrap Up
- Today the market is in play after producing a big positive signal  The R Level at the DP represents the Sentiment bias for the session and traders should look to go long the market above this level.  The market sold off in the overnight session and eventually made it down to our R Level just before 7 A.M.  From here, traders could have executed a BUY DP FADE strategies with the expectation for follow through on the BULL TREND ACCELERATION market state.  The market respected the R Level perfectly and sent the market rallying higher through our DIR and eventually to our UP, where profits could have been realized. 

CRUDE OIL

Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

-The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.

-On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal.  UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as “sloppy” trading conditions are expected.  Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation.

-On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks.  Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back.  DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CL

 

 

Wrap Up
- Today in the CRUDE OIL market, the downside breakout from the Critical Range signaled to traders that Crude Oil was transitioning lower.  When we got a breakout signal out from the Critical Range, our expected target is two APMD away from our entry point, in this case, the DT2.  The SELL DP BREAKOUT signal that was generated at 7:45 A.M. followed through to the downside and made it all the way down to our expected target at the DT2 around 10:30 A.M.

SP 500

Today's MARKET STATE for SP 500 **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

-The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.

-On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal.  UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as “sloppy” trading conditions are expected.  Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation.

-On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks.  Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back.  DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP

Wrap Up
- In a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state, traders should be expecting a choppy, sideways trading environment.  Our market commentary tells us to look for BUY DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSALS as our expectation is for trading to stay within out Critical Range.  Around 10 A.M. the market gives us out BUY DP REVERSAL signal and traders were able to ride the rally all the way up to our key inflection point at the R Level.  From here, traders could have reversed and gone short the market after the R Level proved to be the key level of resistance.

NATURAL GAS

Today's MARKET STATE for NATURAL GAS **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

-The MKT is in a digestive position with a negative technical bias.  On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT, and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points.  DP SELL BREAKOUT strategies should just “go” and not look back.  DIR FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well.  If the trade just “hangs around” after a breakdown signal, it is likely that more digestive action is to come.  Be more aggressive with UP FADE and REVERSAL strategies and resistance inflection points at or against the previous session high point.

-On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should hold structure if they are good.  DP BUY FADE strategies are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support.  Repeated tests are more likely to give way to a lower trade.  BUY REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the DP only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift.  The probability is to the downside today so don’t get stubborn buying breaks.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG

Wrap Up
- Today we had a negative bias on our NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state in the NG which was confirmed by the R Level above the Critical Range.  The opportunity is to the downside and our commentary tells us to accept all SELL BREAKOUT FADE and REVERSAL strategies.  After digesting around the DIR in the overnight session, the market breaks below this key level, allowing us to get short the market from the DIR and take profits at the DP at 8 A.M.  After this, we had two more opportunities to get short the market from the DIR and realize profits around the DP.  The market didn't trade all the way down to the DP on the last two trades; however, due to the digestive nature of the state, we should be aggressive with taking profits.