Wednesday, December 12, 2012

5YR TREASURY NOTES

Today's MARKET STATE for 5YR TREASURY NOTES: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

-The MKT is in a digestive position with a negative technical bias.  On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT, and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points.  DP SELL BREAKOUT strategies should just “go” and not look back.  DIR FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well.  If the trade just “hangs around” after a breakdown signal, it is likely that more digestive action is to come.  Be more aggressive with UP FADE and REVERSAL strategies and resistance inflection points at or against the previous session high point.
-On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should hold structure if they are good.  DP BUY FADE strategies are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support.  Repeated tests are more likely to give way to a lower trade.  BUY REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the DP only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift. 
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for FV






Wrap Up
- With an MC Value of -1 we had a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state today in the 5YR T-NOTES.  Since we are in a NEUTRAL market environment, we know to expect a sideways, choppy trading session...and that is exactly what we got.  However, JS traders were still able to profit in today's market by utilizing the key inflection points of the Price Map as well as the Sentiment Bias represented by the R Level.  Around 11:30 A.M. the market spiked up to our expected level of resistance at our upside pivot (UP).  This allowed traders to execute a SELL UP FADE strategy with the expectation that the market would reject this level and trade back into the Critical Range.  this is exactly what happened as the market violently reversed and traded down to the DP where profits should have been realized.

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