Tuesday, December 4, 2012

NATURAL GAS

Today's MARKET STATE for NATURAL GAS **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**


-The MKT is in a digestive position with a negative technical bias.  On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT, and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points.  DP SELL BREAKOUT strategies should just “go” and not look back.  DIR FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well.  If the trade just “hangs around” after a breakdown signal, it is likely that more digestive action is to come.  Be more aggressive with UP FADE and REVERSAL strategies and resistance inflection points at or against the previous session high point.
-On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should hold structure if they are good.  DP BUY FADE strategies are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support.  Repeated tests are more likely to give way to a lower trade.  BUY REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the DP only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift.  The probability is to the downside today so don’t get stubborn buying breaks.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG




Wrap Up
- Today we had a negative bias on our NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state in the NG which was confirmed by the R Level above the Critical Range.  The opportunity is to the downside and our commentary tells us to accept all SELL BREAKOUT FADE and REVERSAL strategies.  After digesting around the DIR in the overnight session, the market breaks below this key level, allowing us to get short the market from the DIR and take profits at the DP at 8 A.M.  After this, we had two more opportunities to get short the market from the DIR and realize profits around the DP.  The market didn't trade all the way down to the DP on the last two trades; however, due to the digestive nature of the state, we should be aggressive with taking profits.

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