GOLD

Today's MARKET STATE for GOLD: **BEAR TREND**

-The MKT is in a soft neutral position.  On the SELL side UP REVERSAL and FADE strategies with confirmation will be a better option over downside BREAKOUTS, as selling into corrective reactions is the best position.  The MKT remains negative but be patient as to not get caught FADING a corrective rise all the way up.  DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid opportunities but look to take profits on emotional drops versus getting trail stopped on corrective pull backs.

- On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies should be looked at as a “one-shot” deal.  Either the MKT railroads higher in a steady climb or it’s just a head fake to sell.  If you get on a steady advance, ride it until structure is broken.  DP and DT1 REVERSAL strategies are valid, as the neutral tone has the potential to produce false signals in either direction.  Avid DP FADE BUYS as the negative trend remains in force.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for GC

Wrap Up
- With an MC Value of -5, the GOLD futures market followed through on the BEAR TREND market state signal.  The break in structure at the DP around 10:30 allowed traders to get short the market with a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy.  With the market transitioning lower, we usually expect a move of 2 APMD, in this case, to the DT2.  The market stabilized at the DT1 for a brief moment around 11:30 before continuing all the way down to our profit objective at the DT2.

DOW FUTURES

Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES: **BULL TREND CORRECTION**

-The MKT has produced a big negative signal against an underlying positive trend.  On the SELL side accept UP FADE signals on the 1^st or 2^nd press into the area only.  REVERSAL strategies should only be done off the UP or the previous session high point and will immediately work if they are going to.  Keep position management tight on these trades.  SELL DP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive but do have potential to be the start of a larger corrective turn.  Keep risk management tight.

-On the BUY side accept REVERSAL signals off all major inflection levels, expecting the underlying positive momentum to resume.  DP FADE strategies will work better with confirmation as the MKT is in a corrective state and will be probing lower looking for soft spots.  Work any BUY DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies as any positive shift in momentum has the potential to be the start of the next leg higher.  DIR FADE strategies after the UP Breakout should use greater leverage.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM

 

Wrap Up
- Today in the DOW FUTURES market we had a corrective signal against an underlying positive trend.  If we are to get any follow through on the corrective signal, it should occur BELOW the R Level.  Around 8:45 A.M. price traded above the R Level signaling to traders that the underlying positive trend may be resuming.  After selling off back to the R around 9:30, the market found support at this level, allowing traders to get long the market from the R Level in anticipation of a resumption of the positive trend.  This proved to be the correct trade as the market rallied past the UT1 to end the session.

JS Services Strategy Based Trading

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Good Trading!

WHEAT

Today's MARKET STATE for WHEAT: **BEAR TREND**

-Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer.  On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals.  The MKT is on the edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity.  Anticipate a price “zone” around a major resistance point to FADE.  Have a plan and be ready.  If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk.

- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off.  This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points.  Avoid DP FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy.  UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for W

Wrap Up
- Today in the MAR '13 WHEAT contracts, we had an MC Value of -7 producing a BEAR TREND signal.  With the R Level at the UP, we are looking to get short this market aggressively at major Price Map levels.  The market gave us an opportunity to do this at the DIR around 6 A.M.  From here, the market sold off down to the DP, where it had a brief bounce, before continuing lower beyond our minor level at 804.00.  Being cognizant of the MKT state and appropriate strategies to implement in that state allowed JS traders to capitalize on this opportunity.

5YR TREASURY NOTES

Today's MARKET STATE for 5YR TREASURY NOTES: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

-The MKT is in a digestive position with a negative technical bias.  On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT, and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points.  DP SELL BREAKOUT strategies should just “go” and not look back.  DIR FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well.  If the trade just “hangs around” after a breakdown signal, it is likely that more digestive action is to come.  Be more aggressive with UP FADE and REVERSAL strategies and resistance inflection points at or against the previous session high point.

-On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should hold structure if they are good.  DP BUY FADE strategies are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support.  Repeated tests are more likely to give way to a lower trade.  BUY REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the DP only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift. 

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for FV

Wrap Up
- With an MC Value of -1 we had a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state today in the 5YR T-NOTES.  Since we are in a NEUTRAL market environment, we know to expect a sideways, choppy trading session...and that is exactly what we got.  However, JS traders were still able to profit in today's market by utilizing the key inflection points of the Price Map as well as the Sentiment Bias represented by the R Level.  Around 11:30 A.M. the market spiked up to our expected level of resistance at our upside pivot (UP).  This allowed traders to execute a SELL UP FADE strategy with the expectation that the market would reject this level and trade back into the Critical Range.  this is exactly what happened as the market violently reversed and traded down to the DP where profits should have been realized.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE for AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR **BULL TREND**

-The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight. REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.

-On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA

Wrap Up
Today in the Australian Dollar futures market we had an MC Value of +5 producing a BULL TREND market state.  This signaled traders to look for an excuse to get long the market.  Buying the DIR breakout strategy proved to be profitable as the MKT continued higher, taking our the UP and eventually trading up to the minor level at 1.0526

DAX INDEX

Today's MARKET STATE for DAX INDEX **BULL TREND**
 

-The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long.  On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal.  Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR.  Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.

-On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity.  If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop.  If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DAX

 

Wrap Up
Today in the DAX futures market we had an MC Value of +7 indicating a BULL TREND market state.  The R Level is below the Critical Range, indicating to traders that the opportunity is to the long side above this level.  The market sold off during the overnight session and offered traders a BUY DP FADE opportunity.  This trade proved to be profitable, as the market found support at the DP, traded above the DIR, and eventually stabilized around our minor level above the DIR.