Today's MARKET STATE for SWISS FRANC: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF
Wrap Up
- Today was a "MONEY DAY" In the SWISS FRANC market. The MC Value of -1 represents a slight negative bias in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state. The NEGATIVE tone for the session is confirmed by the R LEVEL being placed at the UP. Our expectation for the session is for a sideways trading environment, looking to SELL the MKT on any corrective rally up to the UP. At 3 am CT, overnight traders were able to capitalize on the SELL UP FADE strategy as the market respected our key inflection point, and sold off throughout the rest of the day. After the high was put in at 3 am CT at the R Level, the market continued to build NEGATIVE structure (lower lows, lower highs) reiterating the negative tone. Around 10 am CT, the market gave us a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy. Having built negative structure throughout the entire session, this was a valid strategy to accept. After selling off sharply, the market found support at the DT1, rebounded back to the DP and then sold off throughout the rest of the session, giving traders a chance to take profits at the DT2.
Today's MARKET STATE for S&P 500: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**
- The MKT is flirting with a shift in sentiment. Opportunity exists on both sides with the potential for a decisive session. Key off the R LEVEL sentiment bias for the “tell” to the MKTs next move. On the SELL side FADE and REVERSAL strategies should be executed off the UP only, as any positive showing has the potential to be the start of something bigger. DP BREAKOUT strategies may need to be "worked" as false starts and stops should be expected. Use aggressive position and risk management on the initial failure signal. If stopped out, back off and look to FADE a positive push against the DIR rather than continue to press it in the hole.
- On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies should just go if the MKT is going to transition higher. A sideways trade after a breakout signal is a sign of weakness, foreshadowing a retest of support before a new move north. DP FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid as well as support levels near the previous session low. A break under the previous session low point is a negative signal that has the MKT vulnerable to a return to the offer.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP
Wrap Up
- The R Level was our KEY INFLECTION point today in the S&P 500 market as the market was flirting with a shift in sentiment. The R Level held Resistance at the UP at 7 am CT proving that this was indeed the key inflection point in the market. After stabilizing at the minor level at 1494.50, the market made another run to the UP. The market penetrated our key inflection point, giving traders a BUY UP BREAKOUT opportunity. This is a signal that traders should be anticipating as the market is in a TRANSITION, and the BREAKOUT of the Critical Range confirms this. If the market is indeed going to transition higher, it should just "go" and not reverse back into the Critical Range. This was the case, as the market continued to rally, surpassing the UT1, and eventually achieving our BREAKOUT target of 2 APMD at the UT2 at 11:30 am CT. Also notice the MA cross that occurred just after 8:30 am CT confirming the BUY signal. Keep it simple. The MA cross told us to accept BUY strategies, our R Level identified the optimal entry point and the UT2 served as our exit level to take profits on a well-executed trade.
Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES: **NEUTRAL NEGATIVE SHIFT**
- Technically the MKT has produced a negative signal against a positive trend. On the SELL side avoid UP and DIR FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. Until then, a better opportunity will be a UP REVERSAL strategy. DP SELL BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is corrective and the underlying positive tone must be respected.
- On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies, which should have at least 1, if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. UP BREAKOUT strategies can risk a little more if current events confirm a positive posture. If not, a better approach would be to FADE the DIR after a UP breakout.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM
Wrap Up
- Today in the DOW FUTURES market, the MC Value of -2 identified a NEUTRAL NEGATIVE SHIFT Market State for traders. NEUTRAL Market States should expect a choppy, sideways trading environment within the Critical Range. With the R Level at our expected level of RESISTANCE (UP), the SELL R FADE strategy is a valid opportunity. As highlighted by the RSI indicator, the market was extremely overbought AT our KEY INFLECTION point. This was our "tell" to get short the market from the UP around 9 am CT. Since our expectation is for a sideways trading session, profits should be realized sooner rather than later, and the market gave traders an opportunity to net profits just after 10:30 at the DIR.
Today's MARKET STATE for S&P500: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP
Wrap Up
- Today in the S&P 500 futures market, our optimal hedge strategy proved effective as the market broke out of its digestive posture and hosted a major sell off. Our optimal hedge strategy in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state is a SELL R BREAKOUT strategy. The yellow circle / arrow highlights the MA crossover that signals traders to accept the SELL BREAKOUT signal. Also, it is important to note the negative structure being built throughout the entire session. Just after 10:30 am CT, traders are given the SELL R BREAKOUT strategy. This trade is validated around noon when the market puts in a LOWER move high that fails to trade above the R Level. Our expectation for this trade is for a move to the DT2. The market sold off sharply this afternoon, allowing traders to close out their shorts around 2:30 at the DT2 profit target.
Today's MARKET STATE for CANADIAN DOLLAR: **BEAR TREND**
- Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer. On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. The MKT is on edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Avoid DP FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CD
Wrap Up
- The MC Value of -7 identified a strong BEAR TREND Market State in the CANADIAN DOLLAR today. With the R Level at the UP, traders should look to get short the market below this level. In these TRENDING states, the Moving Average crossover tactic works well and helps confirm the negative tone of the market. The market bounced off the UP at 4:30 am indicating that this was a level of structural support. After the MA cross occured at 7 am followed shortly after by the breakout below the DP, traders should have accepted this SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy with a profit target at the DT2. The market had a "knee-jerk" correction around 7:30 that failed below the DP and then continued lower, stabilizing at the DT1 and ultimately attaining our downside target at the DT2 around 8:30 am CT. By identifying the technical state of the market and which tactics are most applicable in that state, our traders were able to capitalize on the big sell off in the CD market today.
Today's MARKET STATE for NASDAQ 100: **BULL TREND CORRECTION**
- The MKT has produced a negative signal against an underlying positive trend. On the SELL side accept UP FADE signals on the 1st press into the area only. REVERSAL strategies should only be done off the UP or the previous session high point and will immediately work if they are going to. Keep position and risk management tight on these trades. SELL DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive but do have potential to be the start of a larger corrective turn. Keep risk management tight.
- On the BUY side accept REVERSAL signals off all major inflection levels, expecting the underlying positive momentum to resume. DP FADE strategies will work better with confirmation as the MKT is in a corrective state and will be probing lower, looking for soft spots. Work any BUY DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies as any positive shift in momentum has the potential to be the start of the next leg higher. DIR FADE strategies after the UP Breakout should use greater leverage.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for ND
Wrap Up
- Today in the NASDAQ 100 futures market we had an impressive follow through on the CORRECTIVE signal. Our market commentary tells us that SELL UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive; however, they do have the potential to be the start of the next move lower. Using our MA crossover tactic, along with the appearance of a strong bar with a lower close through our key area of support at the DP, the market is telling us to accept the SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy. This strategy proved successful as the market continued to make new lows, eventually making it down to our target area around the DT2 just after 1 pm CT.
Today's MARKET STATE for AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: **BEAR TREND**
- The MKT is in a soft neutral position. On the SELL side UP REVERSAL and FADE strategies with confirmation will be a better option over downside Breakouts, as selling into corrective reactions is the best position. The MKT remains negative but be patient as to not get caught FADING a corrective rise all the way up. DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid opportunities but look to take profits on emotional drops versus getting trail stopped on corrective pull backs.
- On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies should be looked at as a "one-shot" deal. Either the MKT railroads higher in a steady climb or it’s just a head fake to sell. If you get on a steady advance, ride it until structure is broken. DP and DT1 REVERSAL strategies are valid, as the neutral tone has the potential to produce false signals in either direction. Avoid DP FADE BUYS as the negative trend remains in force.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA
Wrap Up
- With an MC Value of -5, our expectation is for a follow through of the BEAR TREND signal in the AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR. For our overnight traders, a SELL R FADE opportunity presented itself just after midnight. The MOVING AVERAGE CROSS occurred at 1 am CT and remained valid throughout the entire session as the market continued to build NEGATIVE STRUCTURE (lower lows and lower highs) throughout the day. Just after 6 am CT, the market gave us a SELL DP BREAKOUT opportunity with an expected move down to the DT 2. The market sold of from 8-9:30, stabilized for a bit at the DT 1, and then continued down to our profit target at the DT 2. By using the Moving Average cross and the markets ability to maintain negative structure, traders were able to net serious profits today.
Today's MARKET STATE for S&P 500: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.
- On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal. UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation first.
- On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks. Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back. DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP
Wrap Up
- Today in the S&P 500 futures market, there was an MC Value of +3 producing a positive tone in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION Market State. With such a positively skewed MC Value (+3), the market is prone to transitioning into a BULL TREND. In order to identify if this is happening, traders must use certain MARKET TACTICS to identify if the market is indeed going to follow through on a BREAKOUT above the UP, or if it is just producing an emotional "head fake". A Moving Average crossover system can help identify when a market is trending and serve as a "filter" for accepting BUY or SELL strategies. While trading above the R Level, the faster MA crosses above the slower MA around 7 am CT. This MA crossover tells traders that BUY strategies are valid. Our second "tell" is that the market produced a STRONG BAR breakout through the UP. These powerful bars serve as confirmation of the strength of the market move. This confluence of MA crossover and STRONG BAR signals provided us with the confidence to accept the BUY UP BREAKOUT strategy and ride the market all the way up to our UT1.
Today's MARKET STATE for AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: **BEAR TREND**
- Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer. On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. The MKT is on edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Avoid DP FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA
Wrap Up
- With an MC Value of -5 and a BEAR TREND Market State, the expectation for the session is for a follow through in the BEAR TREND signal below the R Level. The market respected the R Level on two separate occasions during the overnight session before starting to sell-off gradually. Notice too, the 26 period SMA has crossed from above to below the 50 period SMA, signaling traders to look to accept SELL signals. At 6:30 am CT, the market produces a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy, in line with our Sentiment Bias as well as our Moving Average crossover tactic. After falling through the DP, the market rallies and tries to trade back within the Critical Range with no success. The market begins to sells off, stabilizing at the minor level 1.0301, before moving down to the DT1 and eventually the second minor level at 1.0271.
Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES: **BULL TREND**
- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight. REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM
Wrap Up
- Today the R Level proved to be the key inflection point in the DOW FUTURES market. In a BULL TREND market state, our expectation is that any corrective sell off above the R Level is an opportunity to get long the market. The market sold off sharply in the overnight session and allowed traders to get long the market from the R Level with a BUY R FADE strategy at 5:30 am. The market rallied back into our Critical Range and eventually made it up to our DIR at 10 am, allowing traders to trade profits on the trade.
Today's MARKET STATE for S&P 500: **BULL TREND**
- The MKT has just produced a big positive technical signal. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are a low probability but valid. Risk little and go for a lot. If the MKT is going to turn sour, it should be quick and relentless. Avoid UP FADE strategies as the MKT has just produced a major buy signal and fresh gains are expected. UP REVERSAL strategies as well are not recommended, as any resistance level violation that cannot be held is more likely a squeeze for the longs, which can quickly turn positive.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is aggressively bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, leverage up using the squeeze low as a stop, expecting a quick reaction back above your original entry. De-leverage unless you have confluence with other indicators or like MKTs.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP
Wrap Up
- Defining the technical state of the market along with which TACTICS work best in that state is an essential element of trading, and one that we will be taking a deeper look at in the coming weeks. Knowing what the market is expected to do is very important; however, knowing what the market should NOT do is of equal significance. Today's action in the S&P 500 highlights how to use our optimal HEDGE tactics after the market has produced a "tell". In a BULL TREND market state, our expectation is for the market to make higher highs and higher lows throughout the day, maintaining POSITIVE STRUCTURE. A break in this structure could signal that more of a DIGESTIVE market action is to be anticipated. As highlighted by the red circles, the market broke + structure just before 9 am CT when it produced a LOWER move LOW. This was our "tell" on the market. As the S&P 500 rallied back up to the UP, it gave us a very brief "headfake" above out RESISTANCE level at the UP, before reversing back inside our CRITICAL RANGE. After a break in the positive structure, this SELL UP REVERSAL strategy serves as a valid HEDGE opportunity. As the day progressed, this trade proved to be profitable as the market sold off to the DIR around 10:30 where profits could have been realized on our HEDGE trade.
Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES: **BULL TREND**
- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight. REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM
Wrap Up
- In a BULL TREND Market State, our expectation is for a continuation of the underlying positive trend and the opportunity lies on the long side of the market. By the analyst placing the R Level at the DP, the positive sentiment is confirmed and traders should look to accept BUY signals above the R Level. In a TRENDING state like we had today in the DOW FUTURES, Moving Average crossover signals can be very helpful as they may provide a "tell" for the markets future action. As you can see, the faster 26-period SMA crossed above the slower 50-period SMA around 8 am, telling traders to accept BUY strategies. Shortly after, the market broke out of the Critical Range with a BUY DP BREAKOUT strategy. Also, in TRENDING market state, the market should build POSITIVE STRUCTURE by making higher move highs and higher move lows. As highlighted by the blue circles, the market stayed true to form today and made new highs and higher lows throughout the session. Around 2:30 pm the faster MA crossed below the slower MA, followed shortly there after by a break in the positive structure, signaling traders to flatten out their long positions.
Today's MARKET STATE for GOLD: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**
- MKT sentiment is leaning negative and will outweigh the buy side if the integrity of the previous session high remains intact.
- On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current negative transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on DP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for positive reactions after a negative signal to FADE the DIR.
- On the BUY side avoid DP FADE strategies until after the previous session high point has been taken out. Until then, a better opportunity will be a DP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a positive shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. UP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for GC
Wrap Up
- With a NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION Market State, the GOLD futures market is in a Neutral Primary state; however, the market is "in play" and today's session may be the start of a new move. The R Level is above the market at the UP signaling traders to accept SELL strategies. The market building negative structure throughout the morning session serves as our first "tell". Around 6 am, the market gives us a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy that is in line with out sentiment bias. In these NON-TRENDING market states, it is critical to look at momentum oscillators for "clues" during the session. The indicator that I have included is the 14-period RSI. The red circles represent NEGATIVE REVERSALS in the RSI indicator. In essence, the market is "more oversold" at LOWER price levels, representing weakness and thus, confirming out short position.
Today's MARKET STATE for 5YR TREASURY NOTES: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for FV
Wrap Up
- Today the 5YR TREASURY NOTES was in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION Market State. By identifying the primary technical state of the market, we know that our expectations for the session is for a sideways, choppy trade within the CRITICAL RANGE. The R Level at the UP identifies the optimal entry point for the session and informs traders that the opportunity is to the downside as long as the market is trading below this level. In a non-trending market state, traders should look to key in on momentum oscillators to identify trading opportunity. The 14-period RSI on the bottom of the chart highlights a divergence in the oscillator that occurs AT our KEY INFLECTION POINT. The market approaches the R Level for a second time; however, this time the oscillator fails to confirm the move by putting in a LOWER top. This tactic illustrates weakness and gives us our "tell" to accept the SELL UP FADE strategy. As it played out, the market respected our level at the R Level and sold off sharply from 7am - 9am. Since our expectation is for price action to stay within the Critical Range, profits could have been realized on this trade at the DP just before 9am.
Today's MARKET STATE for DAX: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DAX
Wrap Up
- Today in the DAX futures market, we had a textbook breakout strategy that performed to our expectations. With a slight negative bias in the NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state, traders should look to get short the market below the R Level. Our market commentary tells us to accept SELL DP BREAKOUT signals, a strategy that is in-line with our sentiment bias. Our expectation on the breakout signal is a move of 2 APMD, in this case, from the DP to the DT2. After finding support at the DP from 4:30-6 am, the market finally broke below the DP signalling traders to get short. The market confirmed the trade immediately with a sharp sell off that took prices all the way down to our DT2 just after 7 am.
Today's MARKET STATE for GOLD: **BEAR TREND CORRECTION**
- Technically the MKT momentum is counter trend and will need a strong showing to overcome the underlying negative threat.
- On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies off the UP or near the previous session or move high will work best. DIR or DP BREAKOUT should just go. A better option is to FADE positive reactions against the DIR after a negative signal.
- On the BUY side accept FADE and BREAKOUT strategies. BREAKOUT should expect some "starts and stops" The trade is corrective and sharp positive surges can be erased in a hurry. FADE will work if the corrective state is going to continue. REVERSAL strategies are a lower probability as a break in structure should be considered a potential negative shift in momentum.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for GC
Wrap Up
- Today serves as a perfect example of the power of JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. The market has produced a BEAR TREND CORRECTION Market State with an MC Value of -2. With the R Level above the UT1, traders should look for a continuation of the BEAR TREND below this level. With that being said, the market has produced a corrective signal and traders should look to get short on any rally below the R. Our market commentary tells us that the SELL UP REVERSAL strategy will work best. After respecting the UP around 5:30am, the market gave us a "head fake" above the UP and quickly sold off back into our Critical Range. This presented traders with the opportunity to execute out SELL UP REVERSAL strategy with the expectation of a resumption in the bear trend. The market sold off sharply after the reversal signal, stabilizing at the DIR briefly before selling off to the DP at 10am where profits could have been realized.
Today's MARKET STATE for SWISS FRANC: **BULL TREND ACCELERATION**
- Technically the MKT is in play after producing a big positive signal. On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off the UP and +c. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. Avoid SELL UP FADE strategies even with confirmation. SELL DP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against the DIR.
- On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session's low point. UP BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in structure. BUY DP FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift high.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF
Wrap Up
- Although we didn't get the powerful upside rally that we were looking for in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION Market State, there was still opportunity for profits in the AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR. As the market sold off during the overnight session, it provided traders with a prime opportunity to get long the market from the optimal entry point, the R Level. The BUY R FADE strategy could have been executed at either 6 am or 7:30 am, with the expectation of upside follow through. As it played out, the market was only able to rally up to the DIR before putting in an intraday double top around the 1.1030 level, signalling traders to take profits on their long positions.
