5YR TREASURY NOTES

Today's MARKET STATE for 5YR TREASURY NOTES: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for FV

Wrap Up
- Today the 5YR TREASURY NOTES was in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION Market State.  By identifying the primary technical state of the market, we know that our expectations for the session is for a sideways, choppy trade within the CRITICAL RANGE.  The R Level at the UP identifies the optimal entry point for the session and informs traders that the opportunity is to the downside as long as the market is trading below this level.  In a non-trending market state, traders should look to key in on momentum oscillators to identify trading opportunity.  The 14-period RSI on the bottom of the chart highlights a divergence in the oscillator that occurs AT our KEY INFLECTION POINT.  The market approaches the R Level for a second time; however, this time the oscillator fails to confirm the move by putting in a LOWER top.  This tactic illustrates weakness and gives us our "tell" to accept the SELL UP FADE strategy.  As it played out, the market respected our level at the R Level and sold off sharply from 7am - 9am.  Since our expectation is for price action to stay within the Critical Range, profits could have been realized on this trade at the DP just before 9am.