Tuesday, February 26, 2013

DOW FUTURES

Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES: **NEUTRAL NEGATIVE SHIFT**

- Technically the MKT has produced a negative signal against a positive trend. On the SELL side avoid UP and DIR FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or major support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. Until then, a better opportunity will be a UP REVERSAL strategy. DP SELL BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is corrective and the underlying positive tone must be respected.
- On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies, which should have at least 1, if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. UP BREAKOUT strategies can risk a little more if current events confirm a positive posture. If not, a better approach would be to FADE the DIR after a UP breakout.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM




Wrap Up
- Today in the DOW FUTURES market, the MC Value of -2 identified a NEUTRAL NEGATIVE SHIFT Market State for traders.  NEUTRAL Market States should expect a choppy, sideways trading environment within the Critical Range.  With the R Level at our expected level of RESISTANCE (UP), the SELL R FADE strategy is a valid opportunity.  As highlighted by the RSI indicator, the market was extremely overbought AT our KEY INFLECTION point.  This was our "tell" to get short the market from the UP around 9 am CT.  Since our expectation is for a sideways trading session, profits should be realized sooner rather than later, and the market gave traders an opportunity to net profits just after 10:30 at the DIR.

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