NAT GAS M'10 - TEMPERATURE CHANGE

Tchnically the market is in a BEAR TREND but in a DIGESTIVE posture. The MKT has produced a big negative signal but has yet to confirm a shift into trend mode. Look for excuses to get short below the 4.191 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below the 3.947 support pivot may need to be "worked" as the big negative signal will have the sellers excited. FADE strategies against 4.191 after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well and can provide favorable area to put on leverage against structure. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at or against the previous session high point targeting the opposing digestive support. Above the previous session high point entering after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area is recommended over stepping in front of the initial challenge.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies above 4.191 are aggressive and should be entered sooner [lower] than later [higher]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding structure most of the day producing a positive "reversal" signal. If the MKT digests prior to making a positive move it is more likely a short squeeze to FADE. BUY FADE strategies off the 3.947 support pivot are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a lower trade. BUY REVERSAL strategies are not recommended as any failure is confirmation of a negative trend shift. The probability is to the downside today so don't get stubborn buying breaks.

Note: The MKT has produced a big negative signal and is flirting with a turn for the worse. If it does not follow through on any new weakness it is more likely a nuetral shift than a positive one.

JS

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CORN N'10 - POSITIVE SIGNAL IN PLAY ABOVE 363-4

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state and has produced a big positive signal against a negative trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the potential for a positive shift in sentiment is real with all trading above the 363-4 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies at 369-0 are recommended over a FADE strategies, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the integrity of the resistance before executing a sale against it. BREAKOUT strategies below 358-0 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a negative posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a positive "squeeze" reaction against 363-4 after a negative breakdown signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

On the BUY side avoid FADE strategies at 363-4 and 358-0 until after the previous session high point or major resistance level has been taken out to confirm a positive shift in momentum. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any negative signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 369-0 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE short at resistance targets. The trade is counter trend so avoid any positive commitments.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the positive action may be a 1-day event with the negative trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain firm and not look back maintaining positive structure.

JS

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SP500 Index Futures - TIME TO PLAY A CARD

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a big negative signal against a positive trend. If the negative signal is going to follow through it should do so from the get go and not look back. Any break in the negative structure is a signal that the positive trend will try to reassert itself.

Key off the 1171.50 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session bias. If the market is going to crumble it will have to overwhelm this support area.

On the SELL side FADE strategies should work on the initial test of the 1187 resistance pivot and immediately turn the market lower. Repeated tests is a sign that the market will try to probe higher. REVERSAL strategies should be avoided as any positive signal is more likely an indication that the underlying trend is going to resume. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 1171.50 can be profitable but they are after a major negative signal and have the potential to be stop and go. The trade has the potential to be the beginning of a major sentiment shift if it turns sour.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies off the 1171.50 support pivot, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 1187 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction down to the 1179.25 Directional pivot after a positive breakout signal as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT has produced a big technical signal against the current trend. Be aware that the negative action may be a 1-day event with the positive trend quickly re-establishing itself. If the MKT is really going to turn it should remain hard pressed and provide little or no relief. Don't fight any sustained weakness as the potential for a sentiment shift is real.

JS

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DOW FUTURES - TIGHT ROPE

The MKT is pressing into an exhaustive extreme and is vulnerable to a corrective trade. Respect positive structure but be ready to roll with any negative turn expecting a play for the 11080 Inflection Pivot. Key off the 11221 resistance inflection for the upside exhaustion signal.

On the Sell side REVERSAL strategies off the 11221 and 11315 resistance levels will work best as any unsustained positive signal is expected to provide a sharp negative reaction. FADE strategies against 11221 are valid but will work better after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area. BREAKOUT strategies below 11127 are a lower probability but do have the potential to provide an emotional release down to 11080 and 10962.

On the Buy side FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off 11127 and 11080. BREAKOUT strategies above the 11221 resistance pivot should hold structure after a resistance breach if they are going to follow through. Any break in momentum and the market will be vulnerable to drop back into a digestive trade.

Note: The MKT has stalled and may need a session or two to catch its breath or it already has. Keep an open mind and let the MKT tell you was is.

JS

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EUREX BUND - MIXED SIGNALS

The MKT is holding firm but remains in a corrective posture down to the 12345 Inflection Pivot. This is the low point for any setback if the underlying tone is going to remain positive.

On the SELL side accept FADE signals against the 12419 resistance pivot only on the 2nd or 3rd confirmation. REVERSAL strategies should only be done off 12419 or the previous session high point at 12431 and will immediately work if they are going to. Keep position and risk management tight on these trades. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 12345 will work better as a signal for a FADE of Directional resistance at 12390 with profit targets at the 12361 support area. The underlying tone is positive and negative follow through is not expected.

On the BUY side accept REVERSAL signals off all major inflection levels, expecting the underlying positive momentum to resume. FADE strategies off ther 12361 and 12345 support Inflection Pivot will work better with confirmation as the MKT is in a corrective state and will be probing lower looking for soft spots. Work any BUY BREAKOUT strategies above the 12419 resistance pivot as any positive shift in momentum has the potential to be the start of the next leg higher.

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position and sharp negative sell offs are not expected to follow through. If after a break the MKT stabilizes and starts to build structure, look for buy opportunities and work it until that structure is broken.

JS

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EuroFX - PULL THE RUG

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION position and is vulnerable to the offer with all trading below the 13522 Inflection Pivot. Any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop squeeze" if the negative moemtnum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.

On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous sessions high point. BREAKOUT strategies below the 13327 support pivot should just "go", so do not risk much. FADE strategies against 13457 resisstance and the 13522 Inflection Pivot are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above 13457 and 13522 are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is in an aggressive sell posture. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.

JS

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USDJPY - BACK ON THE FENCE

The USDJPY is trying to make a difference set to press good directional resistance at the 9385-9354 resistance band. If the currency is going to find religion it will in this zone. Jump on any negative REVERSAL signals in this or against this price band expecting a sharp rejection back down to 9238 with the potential of sending the MKT as low as 9091 on the move.

A held trade above 9372 must be confirmed above 9385 to confirm a positive shift. Roll with this signal buying any setbacks down to 9296 with the expectation that this is the beginning of the next leg higher targeting 9548 and 9780 on the move.

JS

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GBPUSD - NEGATIVE SIGNAL NEEDS CONFIRMATION

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND and has produced a negative signal. The MKT is vulnerable and all sell signals should be considered belowthe 15383 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. If the MKT produces a BREAKOUT signal below the 15135 support pivot early in the session it should just "go" and not look back. Beware of any break in early negative structure, as a corrective rally up to resistance is a likely scenario. Be selective and wait for an exhaustive signal to re-enter to avoid selling the corrective rally all the way up to your "ideal" sell points but with no confidence left or dry powder. Practice good size management on this move accepting sell signals but leveraging up at the resistance turning points. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance points at 15383 and 15476 to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk. Follow any corrective rise with a REVERSAL strategy. Expectations are for the negative signal to follow through even if it does in the last hour.

On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of the 15135 support pivot but preferably after an emotional sell off early in the session. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Expectations should be for an immediate "V" bottom turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area or a gradual rise with higher lows after a lower exhaustive signal. Avoid FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 15383 are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a FADE.

Note: The MKT has produced a negative signal and should follow through with authority from the get go if it is serious. If not expect some starts and stops. Be patient and wait for opportunity. As soon as the MKT starts to look "good", its time dial in your sell strategies, especially if the integrity of the previous session high point remains intact. Above the previous session high point and all negative bets are off.

JS

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VIX - EXCITABLE

The VIX has been waiting for an excuse to jump and it got it on Friday.

Real deal?

With the short end of the Yield curve jumping you can smell the fear.

The Equities have plenty of room to move without altering the underlying positive sentiment. For now all the major indices are vulnerable to further losses with the VIX expected to tighten a few collars. Keep tight position management and watch the short end of the curve to stall for a signal that the sky is not falling.

Nikkei225 has the potentail to be one of the bigger losers for any negative follow through to Friday's action.

Gold sold off but could not turn its underlying technicals to the downside.

Crude Oil flip flopped last week and should have rallied if it was going to. This MKT is vulnerable to a few dollar drop.

The Dollar is ready for some big sideways action so avoid making any commitments.

Commodities are firm and are expected to inflate.

Good Trading

JS

30YR US T-Bond - TRYING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE position with a positive bias above the 116-07 Inflection Pivot. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT but buying weakness above here is the better opportunity.

On the SELL side BREAKOUT strategies below 116-07 or the 115-18 support pivot are aggressive and should be entered sooner [higher] than later [lower]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding structure most of the day. If the MKT digests prior to making a negative move, it is more likely a squeeze on the longs to FADE. SELL FADE strategies against the 116-28 resistance pivot are aggressive as well and if they are going to work, should do so on the initial test of resistance. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a higher trade. SELL REVERSAL strategies at 116-28 are recommended off the session initial major resistance levels only as the MKT potential for positive trend shift. The probability is to the upside today so don't get stubborn selling strength.

On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above the 116-28 resistance pivot should just "go" and not look back, so keep risk parameters tight. FADE strategies off the 116-07 level after positive breakout signals are good opportunities as well but expectation should be for the MKT to quickly move back above violated resistance. If the trade just "hangs around", it is likely a signal that more digestive action is coming and a retest of support should be expected. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at the 115-18 support pivot or above the previous session low point, targeting the opposing digestive resistance at 116-28. Below the previous session low point, entering after the 2nd or 3rd test of support is recommended over stepping in front.

Note: The MKT is in neutral so "sloppy" conditions with "false signals" should be anticipated. Have a plan for any squeeze. Don't get stubborn, however, if the MKT starts to hold structure and gets into trend mode as the contract may just be expanding its digestive parameters producing a one way trade into the close and new extreme.

JS

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CRUDE OIL - FLIP FLOP

** NEUTRAL TRANSITION **

The MKT has produced a major positive technical which will need to overcome resistance at 86.51 if the signal is valid. If not a return to a sideways trend less trade is likely. Roll with any new strength and leverage up if good risk parameters present themselves. The potential to get in at the beginning of a new move higher is real.

84.29 is the Inflection Pivot keeping the positive signal in play.

On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off the 86.51 resistance pivot. Avoid this strategy on higher levels as any new strength has the potential to be the beginning of a move. If the integrity of the previous session high remains intact FADE strategies can be accepted at or near this inflection point on the initial test with tight profit target objectives. If the MKT has already had a reaction off this resistance area avoid this strategy. Use BREAKOUT strategies below 85.03 as a signal to FADE a positive pull-back into the 85.77 Directional after a confirm break in the positive momentum. Only take this trade if the previous session high point remains intact.

On the BUY side be more aggressive after the86.51 resistance pivot is taken out. Not that this is a pre-condition but should be noted as a confirmation of strength. BREAKOUT strategies above here should just "go" so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any negative reaction off an unsuccessful upside BREAKOUT after a support level is confirmed. Use a REVERSAL strategy to leverage up after the MKT gets back above the original breakout point. If the integrity of the 86.51 resistance pivot remains intact, avoid REVERSAL strategies off 84.29 as expectations are that the "positive" signal is going to follow through it should do so straight away and any break momentum is a negative signal that the MKT is going to return to its neutral posture. FADE strategies off 84.29 are recommended early in the session or near the end. The positive signal will either play out from the get go or will make its move in the latter stages of the trading session.

Note: This is a dangerous emotional trading environment. MKT reactions to go a little further that you expect in either direction so anticipate this in your position and risk management.

JS

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CRUDE OIL K'10 - NEGATIVE SIGNAL

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION position and is vulnerable to the offer with all trading below the 84.31 Inflection Pivot. Any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop squeeze" if the negative moemtnum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.

On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below 84.31 and the previous sessions high point. BREAKOUT strategies below 83.58 and 82.85 should just "go", so do not risk much. FADE strategies against 84.31 are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above 84.31 and the previous session high are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE off the 82.85 support pivot should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is in an aggressive sell posture. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.

JS

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WHEAT K'10 - NEGATIVE SIGNAL IN PLAY BELOW 468-2

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND and has produced a negative signal. The MKT is vulnerable and all sell signals should be considered below the 468-2 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. If the MKT produces a BREAKOUT signal below the 460-6 support pivot early in the session it should just "go" and not look back. Beware of any break in early negative structure, as a corrective rally up to resistance is a likely scenario. Be selective and wait for an exhaustive signal to re-enter to avoid selling the corrective rally all the way up to your "ideal" sell points but with no confidence left or dry powder. Practice good size management on this move accepting sell signals but leveraging up at the resistance turning points. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE at 468-2 and the 475-6 resistance pivot. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk. Follow any corrective rise with a REVERSAL strategy. Expectations are for the negative signal to follow through even if it does in the last hour.

On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off the 460-6 and 445-6 support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off early in the session. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Expectations should be for an immediate "V" bottom turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area or a gradual rise with higher lows after a lower exhaustive signal. Avoid FADE BUYS off 460-6 even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 468-2 and 475-6 are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a FADE.

Note: The MKT has produced a negative signal and should follow through with authority from the get go if it is serious. If not expect some starts and stops. Be patient and wait for opportunity. As soon as the MKT starts to look "good", its time dial in your sell strategies, especially if the integrity of the previous session high point remains intact. Above the previous session high point and all negative bets are off.

JS

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SPY - CORRECTIVE SIGNAL IN PLAY

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL CORRECTIVE state producing a negative signal against a positive trend. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT however the threat of fresh losses will loom over this market with all trading below the 118-55 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies until after the previous session low point or 117-76 support level has been broken to confirm a negative shift in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy at 118-55 but not at higher resistance levels. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that if the MKT is going to follow through on its negative signal any stength is just a "head fake " before it follows through. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 117-76 and 117-10 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE long at support targets. The trade is corrective and the underlying positive tone must be respected.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the positive momentum is going to resume. REVERSAL strategies are recommended over a FADE strategies off 117-76 and 117-10, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to the support integrity before executing a long off it. BREAKOUT strategies above 118-55 can risk a little more if current events and other MKTs of confluence confirm a positive posture with the expectation that the Bull Trend is going to resume. If not a better approach would be to FADE a negative "squeeze" reaction off the 117-81-117-76 Directional area after a positve breakout signal above 118-55 as the neutral technical position can keep the trend sideways.

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position with the potential to move in either direction. Keep your opinions to themselves and focus on what the MKT is telling you it wants to do. Don't fight it, roll with it.

JS

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BUND - MIXED SIGNALS

The MKT is in Neutral but has produced a big negative signal. Stay nimble. If the signal does not follow through the potential for a whiplash rally is high.

Key of the 12282 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone.

On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 12246 may need to be "worked" as the neutral position will produce some starts and stops. FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal against the 12282 Directional are good opportunities as well but expectation should be for the MKT to quickly move back under the failed support. If the trade just "hangs around" is more likely a signal that more digestive action is coming and a retest of resistance should be expected. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at 12318 or against the previous session high point targeting the opposing digestive support at 12246. Above the previous session high point enterying after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area is recomended over stepping in front of the initial challenge.

On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies off 12282 or above 12318 are aggressive but do have potential if yesterday's signal was false producing a nice squeeze rally. BUY FADE strategies at 12246 are aggressive as well and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a lower trade. BUY REVERSAL strategies at 12246 and 12282 are recommended off the session initial major support only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift and any new weakness is confirmation to yesterday's signal.

Note: The MKT has produced a big negative signal in a neutral environment. This is either the beging of a new trend move south or a press into the negative extreme which is about to snap back. Don't get tied into either opinion and let the MKT tell you what is.

JS

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Crude Oil - - Market on the Move

** NEUTRAL TRANSITION **

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL TRANSITION and is flirting with a shift in sentiment. Opportunity exists on both sides with the potential for a decisive session.

85.24 is the Inflection Pivot that will gauge sentiment today. Above here the MKT will maintain a positive bias, however any longs should look to enter at or near this level as the current rise is a little ahead of itself.

A break under 85.24 and sentiment turns sour targeting 83.56 and 81.89.

JS

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CRUDE OIL - EXTENDED

** NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME **

The MKT is in a neutral digest in an underlying posiitve MKT and will need to generate a positive push today if it is to avoid falling back into a corrective trade.

The 83.88 Inflection Pivot is the low point for any corrective pull back if the underlying tone is going to remain firm. A break under this support level is a signal of a sentiment shift.

On the Sell side REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points will work best as any unsustained positive signal is expected to provide a sharp negative reaction. FADE strategies off the initial major resistance inflection pivots are valid but will work better after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area. BREAKOUT strategies are a lower probability and should be used as a signal for a FADE strategy against Directional reisstance.

On the Buy side FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off support inflections, especially if the previous session low point remains intact. BREAKOUT strategies should hold structure after a resistance breach if they are going to follow through. Any break in momentum and the market will be vulnerable to drop back into a digestive trade.

Note: The MKT has stalled and may need a session or two to catch its breath or it already has. Keep an open mind and let the MKT tell you was is.

JS

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