Wednesday, April 14, 2010

CRUDE OIL - FLIP FLOP

** NEUTRAL TRANSITION **

The MKT has produced a major positive technical which will need to overcome resistance at 86.51 if the signal is valid. If not a return to a sideways trend less trade is likely. Roll with any new strength and leverage up if good risk parameters present themselves. The potential to get in at the beginning of a new move higher is real.

84.29 is the Inflection Pivot keeping the positive signal in play.

On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off the 86.51 resistance pivot. Avoid this strategy on higher levels as any new strength has the potential to be the beginning of a move. If the integrity of the previous session high remains intact FADE strategies can be accepted at or near this inflection point on the initial test with tight profit target objectives. If the MKT has already had a reaction off this resistance area avoid this strategy. Use BREAKOUT strategies below 85.03 as a signal to FADE a positive pull-back into the 85.77 Directional after a confirm break in the positive momentum. Only take this trade if the previous session high point remains intact.

On the BUY side be more aggressive after the86.51 resistance pivot is taken out. Not that this is a pre-condition but should be noted as a confirmation of strength. BREAKOUT strategies above here should just "go" so keep risk parameters tight. FADE into any negative reaction off an unsuccessful upside BREAKOUT after a support level is confirmed. Use a REVERSAL strategy to leverage up after the MKT gets back above the original breakout point. If the integrity of the 86.51 resistance pivot remains intact, avoid REVERSAL strategies off 84.29 as expectations are that the "positive" signal is going to follow through it should do so straight away and any break momentum is a negative signal that the MKT is going to return to its neutral posture. FADE strategies off 84.29 are recommended early in the session or near the end. The positive signal will either play out from the get go or will make its move in the latter stages of the trading session.

Note: This is a dangerous emotional trading environment. MKT reactions to go a little further that you expect in either direction so anticipate this in your position and risk management.

JS

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