Today's MARKET STATE for EURO CURRENCY **NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME**
- Technically the MKT is at an extreme and is ready to either pop back into a firm neutral posture or break into a new down trend. On the SELL side immediate follow through to the MKT's technical sell signal should be expected. DP BREAKOUT strategies should be worked with the expectation that any sustained trade and repeated tests of support will give way to negative follow through. This strategy is vulnerable to the MKT, expanding its lower support band in a series of starts and stops. UP and DIR FADE strategies should expect an immediate reaction as any held trade or violation of major resistance foreshadows a potential turning point. These are good opportunities to "roll" into a long position when stopped out.
- On the BUY side DP FADE and REVERSAL strategies are qualified, however the FADE is a lower probability and should use tight risk criteria. DP REVERSALS can risk more but should also go for more profit with the expectation of a turning point "key reversal" signal to play out. UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should just "go" and not look back. Risk less and go for more. A laborious lackluster rise after a positive breakout is a sign that the MKT is more likely expanding its resistance lid for a new consolidation versus transition from negative to positive technical posture.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for EU
Wrap Up
- Today in the EURO CURRENCY market there was a NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME market state. The market is in a pivotal posture and will either transition into a BEAR TREND or pop back into a NEUTRAL posture. The market sold off to the DP in the early morning session which would prove to be the KEY INFLECTION point for today's session. If the market breaks down from the DP and continues lower, the market could be transitioning into a BEAR TREND. However, if the market respects this level, the expectation is for a pop back into the Critical Range. As it played out, our RSI indicator gave us a BULLISH DIVERGENCE at the DP giving us a "tell" that the market was going to respect this level and pop back into a NEUTRAL posture. This gave us confidence to accept the BUY DP REVERSAL trade and ride profits all the way up to the UP.
Today's MARKET STATE for NASDAQ 100 **BULL TREND**
- The MKT has just produced a big positive technical signal. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are a low probability but valid. Risk little and go for a lot. If the MKT is going to turn sour, it should be quick and relentless. Avoid UP FADE strategies as the MKT has just produced a major buy signal and fresh gains are expected. UP REVERSAL strategies as well are not recommended, as any resistance level violation that cannot be held is more likely a squeeze for the longs, which can quickly turn positive.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is aggressively bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, leverage up using the squeeze low as a stop, expecting a quick reaction back above your original entry. De-leverage unless you have confluence with other indicators or like MKTs.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for ND
Wrap Up
- The optimal market TACTIC in a BULL TREND market state is the moving average crossover system. The "tell" as to whether or not this tactic will be effective is if the market performs to expectations, making higher move highs and higher move lows. Since the overnight / early morning session played host to a slow decline (creating a lower low and lower high) this was our signal to run our optimal hedge tactics. The 14-period RSI highlights the 70 - 30 level in red and green respectively. The blue line below the 30 level is drawn to show the extreme low that occurred in the oscillator last night. Notice the location of the RSI when the market sold off to our R LEVEL. The RSI put in a HIGHER low creating a BULLISH DIVERGENCE. The occurrence of this signal at our key inflection point (R LEVEL) gave us confidence that the R Level would maintain structure and offer traders an opportunity to get long the market. After price traded back above the DP, traders were given the BUY DP REVERSAL opportunity as highlighted in our market commentary. From that point, the market built positive structure, eventually allowing traders to take profits at the DIR.
Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION**
- Technically the MKT has the potential for a positive turn. Opportunity exists on both sides, however there is a better chance of an acceleration to the upside if the integrity of the previous session low remains intact. On the SELL side avoid UP and DIR FADE strategies until after the previous session low point has been broken. Until then, a better opportunity will be a UP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a negative shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. DP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.
- On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current positive transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on UP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for negative reactions after a positive signal to FADE the DIR.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF
Wrap Up
- Identifying MARKET STRUCTURE is an essential part of profitable trading. By defining the KEY INFLECTION points in the market, traders can anticipate opportunity and execute trades at the optimal entry point. Today in the SWISS FRANC, that point was at the UP R. With the UP serving as our expected level of RESISTANCE, the placement of the R LEVEL at the UP reiterated the importance of the level, and allowed traders to get short the market from our expected level of resistance. After testing the UP on three different occasions, the market finally broke, selling off to the DIR where profits could have been realized. Yet another example of the importance of identifying market STATE, STRUCTURE and STRATEGY.
Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CL
Wrap Up
- By first identifying the MARKET STATE in the CRUDE OIL market, traders were then able to determine the optimal TACTIC for the NEUTRAL market state. In a NON-TREND market state, traders should key off the CRITICAL RANGE (UP-DP) as it represents the expected trading area for the session. As the market sold off to the DP, there was a BULLISH DIVERGENCE signal at our expected level of SUPPORT (DP). This tactic allowed traders to accept the BUY DP FADE strategy and ride profits all the way up to the UP as the market maintained positive structure throughout the trade.
Today's MARKET STATE for SWISS FRANC **BEAR TREND**
- Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer. On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. The MKT is on edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Avoid DP FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF
Wrap Up
- "Money days" happen when the market performs to expectations. By utilizing JS Services Market STATE, STRUCTURE and STRATEGY, along with the appropriate market TACTIC, our traders were able to net some serious profits in the SWISS FRANC futures market. With an MC Value of -4, this market was in a BEAR TREND market state and expected to follow through to the downside. The R Level above the Critical Range signals that the opportunity is to the downside on any corrective rally up to that point. Our optimal MARKET TACTIC in a TREND state is a moving average crossover signal identifying the sell signal in the market. This signal occured just before 7 am CT when the faster moving average crossed from above to below the slower MA, generating a SELL signal. When the market began to sell off sharply, it generated a STRONG BAR, closing near the lows and taking out our expected level of SUPPORT at the DP. This was our "tell" to accept the SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy with the expectation for a move to the DT2. The market continued to sell off sharply and took us down to our profit target at the DT2 with minimal time in the market. A great trade made possible by identifying the STATE of the market and the OPTIMAL TACTIC to utilize.
Today's MARKET STATE for AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA
Wrap Up
- In a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state, traders should key off the structural elements of the CRITICAL RANGE for trading opportunities. Our expectation is for a sideways, chippy trading environment. With the R Level at the DP, the probability is to the upside and traders should look to accept BUY strategies. The market tested the DIR in the overnight session before eventually surpassing it around 2:15 am CT. After the DIR was breached, the market found support at this level around 7:30 am CT and allowed traders to get long the market from the DIR with a profit target at the UP. This target was achieved when the market put in an intra-day double top formation at the UP around 9 am CT.
Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL **BEAR TREND**
- Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer. On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. The MKT is on edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Avoid DP FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CL
Wrap Up
- In a BEAR TREND market state with the R LEVEL at the DIR, our expectation is that if there is going to be any follow through on the BEAR TREND signal, the market should maintain negative structure below the R Level. In a TRENDING market state, the MOVING AVERAGE CROSSOVER system is the optimal technical tactic to help identify trading opportunities. A little after 7 am CT, the faster MA crossed from above to below our slower MA generating a "sell" signal. This gave traders the confidence needed to accept the SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy at 8:30 am CT. The market continued to build negative structure throughout the session, making lower highs and lower lows. Our expectation is for a move tot he DT2; however, the MACD gave us a valuable signal that helped minimize profit give back. As the market put in an intra-day double bottom at our 89.65 level, the MACD produced a DIVERGENCE signal. The second "bottom" in price corresponded with a reading in the MACD that was substantially higher than the previous low, warning of the coming positive momentum. This signal allowed traders to take profits on the trade before the corrective rally had the chance to erase profits.
