Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION**
- Technically the MKT has the potential for a positive turn. Opportunity exists on both sides, however there is a better chance of an acceleration to the upside if the integrity of the previous session low remains intact. On the SELL side avoid UP and DIR FADE strategies until after the previous session low point has been broken. Until then, a better opportunity will be a UP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a negative shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. DP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.
- On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current positive transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on UP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for negative reactions after a positive signal to FADE the DIR.
Wrap Up
- Identifying MARKET STRUCTURE is an essential part of profitable trading. By defining the KEY INFLECTION points in the market, traders can anticipate opportunity and execute trades at the optimal entry point. Today in the SWISS FRANC, that point was at the UP R. With the UP serving as our expected level of RESISTANCE, the placement of the R LEVEL at the UP reiterated the importance of the level, and allowed traders to get short the market from our expected level of resistance. After testing the UP on three different occasions, the market finally broke, selling off to the DIR where profits could have been realized. Yet another example of the importance of identifying market STATE, STRUCTURE and STRATEGY.
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