Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION**
- Technically the MKT has the potential for a positive turn. Opportunity exists on both sides, however there is a better chance of an acceleration to the upside if the integrity of the previous session low remains intact. On the SELL side avoid UP and DIR FADE strategies until after the previous session low point has been broken. Until then, a better opportunity will be a UP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a negative shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. DP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.
- On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current positive transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on UP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for negative reactions after a positive signal to FADE the DIR.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF
Wrap Up
- Identifying MARKET STRUCTURE is an essential part of profitable trading. By defining the KEY INFLECTION points in the market, traders can anticipate opportunity and execute trades at the optimal entry point. Today in the SWISS FRANC, that point was at the UP R. With the UP serving as our expected level of RESISTANCE, the placement of the R LEVEL at the UP reiterated the importance of the level, and allowed traders to get short the market from our expected level of resistance. After testing the UP on three different occasions, the market finally broke, selling off to the DIR where profits could have been realized. Yet another example of the importance of identifying market STATE, STRUCTURE and STRATEGY.
Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CL
Wrap Up
- By first identifying the MARKET STATE in the CRUDE OIL market, traders were then able to determine the optimal TACTIC for the NEUTRAL market state. In a NON-TREND market state, traders should key off the CRITICAL RANGE (UP-DP) as it represents the expected trading area for the session. As the market sold off to the DP, there was a BULLISH DIVERGENCE signal at our expected level of SUPPORT (DP). This tactic allowed traders to accept the BUY DP FADE strategy and ride profits all the way up to the UP as the market maintained positive structure throughout the trade.
Today's MARKET STATE for SWISS FRANC **BEAR TREND**
- Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer. On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. The MKT is on edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Avoid DP FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SF
Wrap Up
- "Money days" happen when the market performs to expectations. By utilizing JS Services Market STATE, STRUCTURE and STRATEGY, along with the appropriate market TACTIC, our traders were able to net some serious profits in the SWISS FRANC futures market. With an MC Value of -4, this market was in a BEAR TREND market state and expected to follow through to the downside. The R Level above the Critical Range signals that the opportunity is to the downside on any corrective rally up to that point. Our optimal MARKET TACTIC in a TREND state is a moving average crossover signal identifying the sell signal in the market. This signal occured just before 7 am CT when the faster moving average crossed from above to below the slower MA, generating a SELL signal. When the market began to sell off sharply, it generated a STRONG BAR, closing near the lows and taking out our expected level of SUPPORT at the DP. This was our "tell" to accept the SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy with the expectation for a move to the DT2. The market continued to sell off sharply and took us down to our profit target at the DT2 with minimal time in the market. A great trade made possible by identifying the STATE of the market and the OPTIMAL TACTIC to utilize.
Today's MARKET STATE for AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade. UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA
Wrap Up
- In a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state, traders should key off the structural elements of the CRITICAL RANGE for trading opportunities. Our expectation is for a sideways, chippy trading environment. With the R Level at the DP, the probability is to the upside and traders should look to accept BUY strategies. The market tested the DIR in the overnight session before eventually surpassing it around 2:15 am CT. After the DIR was breached, the market found support at this level around 7:30 am CT and allowed traders to get long the market from the DIR with a profit target at the UP. This target was achieved when the market put in an intra-day double top formation at the UP around 9 am CT.
Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL **BEAR TREND**
- Technically the MKT is vulnerable to the offer. On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. The MKT is on edge and any negative signal, especially below the previous session high, is an opportunity. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance point to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk.
- On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of major support levels but preferably after an emotional sell off. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Avoid DP FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. UP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a DP FADE.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CL
Wrap Up
- In a BEAR TREND market state with the R LEVEL at the DIR, our expectation is that if there is going to be any follow through on the BEAR TREND signal, the market should maintain negative structure below the R Level. In a TRENDING market state, the MOVING AVERAGE CROSSOVER system is the optimal technical tactic to help identify trading opportunities. A little after 7 am CT, the faster MA crossed from above to below our slower MA generating a "sell" signal. This gave traders the confidence needed to accept the SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy at 8:30 am CT. The market continued to build negative structure throughout the session, making lower highs and lower lows. Our expectation is for a move tot he DT2; however, the MACD gave us a valuable signal that helped minimize profit give back. As the market put in an intra-day double bottom at our 89.65 level, the MACD produced a DIVERGENCE signal. The second "bottom" in price corresponded with a reading in the MACD that was substantially higher than the previous low, warning of the coming positive momentum. This signal allowed traders to take profits on the trade before the corrective rally had the chance to erase profits.
Today's MARKET STATE for S&P 500: **BULL TREND ACCELERATION**
- Technically the MKT is in play after producing a big positive signal. On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off the UP and +c. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. Avoid SELL UP FADE strategies even with confirmation. SELL DP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against the DIR.
- On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session's low point. UP BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in structure. BUY DP FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift high.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP
Wrap Up
- In a BULL TREND ACCELERATION market state, our expectation is for a follow through on the underlying BULL TREND. In a TRENDING market state, our optimal tactics include the moving average crossover tactic, as well as the building of positive market structure (higher highs and higher lows). It is also important to note that the ADX indicator can provide us with a valuable signal when the value of the ADX crosses above the 25 level. This indicates the market has entered a "trending" state. Notice on our S&P 500 chart today that the ADX crosses from below to above the 25 level right as the faster moving average crosses from below to above the slower moving average. This confluence of technical tactics gave us the confidence needed to accept the BUY UP BREAKOUT strategy and profit from the move in the S&P 500 today.
Today's MARKET STATE for NATURAL GAS: **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**
- Technically the MKT is "on the fence" with the potential to go in either direction or nowhere. Pick your points and have no expectations, as the likelihood of this MKT trading sideways is high.
- On the SELL side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The pivotal nature of the session does have the potential to be the starting point for a new move. However, the probability of any trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extreme.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies are valid, however profit and position risk management should be aggressive and anticipated. The MKT is "on the fence" and does have the potential to be the beginning of a new trend move. The probability of a new trend move is low. However, any price trend action is more likely to just be the MKT defining its new consolidation extremes.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG
Wrap Up
- Today in the NATURAL GAS futures market the MC Value of +2 produced a NEUTRAL DIGESTION Market State. Given this information, traders should look for a sideways, digestive session, keying off of the Critical Range. The R Level below the Critical Range means that any corrective sell off is an opportunity to get long the market ABOVE the R LEVEL. In a NEUTRAL, NON-TREND market state, our optimal market tactic is to use our MOMENTUM OSCILLATORS. Notice the BULLISH DIVERGENCE that occurs in the RSI just before 7 am CT. This technical tactic is our "tell" to accept a BUY DP REVERSAL signal. By identifying the MARKET STATE, traders were able to capitalize on the tactical signal occuring at our key level of SUPPORT (DP). The market built positive structure throughout the day, allowing traders to hold onto their long position and net some serious gains.
