SP 500

Today's MARKET STATE for SP 500 **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

-The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.

-On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal.  UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as “sloppy” trading conditions are expected.  Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation.

-On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks.  Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back.  DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.
Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP

Wrap Up
- In a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state, traders should be expecting a choppy, sideways trading environment.  Our market commentary tells us to look for BUY DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSALS as our expectation is for trading to stay within out Critical Range.  Around 10 A.M. the market gives us out BUY DP REVERSAL signal and traders were able to ride the rally all the way up to our key inflection point at the R Level.  From here, traders could have reversed and gone short the market after the R Level proved to be the key level of resistance.

NATURAL GAS

Today's MARKET STATE for NATURAL GAS **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

-The MKT is in a digestive position with a negative technical bias.  On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT, and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points.  DP SELL BREAKOUT strategies should just “go” and not look back.  DIR FADE strategies after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well.  If the trade just “hangs around” after a breakdown signal, it is likely that more digestive action is to come.  Be more aggressive with UP FADE and REVERSAL strategies and resistance inflection points at or against the previous session high point.

-On the BUY side DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should hold structure if they are good.  DP BUY FADE strategies are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support.  Repeated tests are more likely to give way to a lower trade.  BUY REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the DP only, as the MKT is vulnerable to a negative trend shift.  The probability is to the downside today so don’t get stubborn buying breaks.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG

Wrap Up
- Today we had a negative bias on our NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state in the NG which was confirmed by the R Level above the Critical Range.  The opportunity is to the downside and our commentary tells us to accept all SELL BREAKOUT FADE and REVERSAL strategies.  After digesting around the DIR in the overnight session, the market breaks below this key level, allowing us to get short the market from the DIR and take profits at the DP at 8 A.M.  After this, we had two more opportunities to get short the market from the DIR and realize profits around the DP.  The market didn't trade all the way down to the DP on the last two trades; however, due to the digestive nature of the state, we should be aggressive with taking profits.

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SP500

Today's MARKET STATE for SP 500 FUTURES **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**

 

-Technically the MKT has the potential for appositive turn.  Opportunity exists on both sides, however there is a better chance of an acceleration to the upside if the integrity of the previous session low remains intact.  On the SEL side avoid UP and DIR DAFE strategies until after the previous session low point has been broken.  Until then, a better opportunity will be a UP REVERSAL strategy.  The idea is that the transition trade is over and a negative shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected.  DP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive.  Risk less, go for more.

-On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current positive transition will continue.  Keep aggressive position management on UP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend.  A more conservative strategy would be to wait for negative reactions after a positive signal to FADE the DIR.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP

Wrap Up
- Today in the SP 500 Futures market, we have a NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION market state, signalling to traders that if the R Level remains intact, the market has the potential to transition higher.  In the overnight session, we saw a strong move up to the UP.  Being cognizant of this overnight action allowed traders to identify the opportunity for the session.  Our market commentary tells us that BUY UP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive, and a more conservative strategy would be to wait for a negative reaction back to the DIR after a positive breakout from the UP to enter the market from the long side.  The sell off just after 10 A.M. was the negative reaction we were looking for to get long the market from the DIR.  As it played out, the market held structure at the DIR perfectly at 10:45 A.M. allowing traders to execute a BUY DIR FADE strategy, taking profits at the UP.

10YR TREASURY NOTES

Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES **NEUTRAL POSITIVE SHIFT**

 

-Technically the MKT has produced a positive signal against a negative trend.  On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points with the expectation that the negative momentum is going to resume.  UP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE, which should have at least 1 if not 2 challenges to its integrity before executing a short sale against it.  A better approach to a straight DP BREAKOUT strategy is to FADE a positive “squeeze” reaction after a negative breakdown signal against the DIR.

-On the BUY side avoid DIR and DP FADE strategies until after the previous session high point or major resistance has been taken out to confirm a break in momentum.  Until then, a better opportunity will be a DP REVERSAL strategy.  UP BUY BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive and should look to take profits and potentially REVERSE short at resistance targets.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for TY

Wrap Up
- With an MC shift of +4 the market has produced a NEUTRAL POSITIVE SHIFT.  With the R Level at the DP, we know to accept BUY strategies above this level.  As indicated by our market commentary, BUY UP REVERSAL strategies are aggressive and should look to take profits and REVERSE at our first resistance target (the UT1).  As today's session played out, the BUY UP BREAKOUT strategy could have been executed in the early session, taking profits at the initial resistance target of the UT1 at 9 A.M.  From here, our commentary tells us to reverse and go short the market at our initial resistance target (UT1).  By getting short the market from this level, we were able to capture the move back down to the UP and cover our short position at the UP at 11:30. 

DOW FUTURES

Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

-The MKT is in a sideways digestive position with a slight positive bias.

-On the SELL side avoid DP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a positive reaction against the DIR after a negative breakdown signal.  UP and UT1 REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as “sloppy” trading conditions are expected.  Any UP FADE trades should get confirmation.

-On the BUY side UP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  Work any position, selling into emotional surges and re-entering on any sharp pullbacks.  Expect a choppy trade and be aggressive on minimizing profit give-back.  DP and DT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM

 

Wrap Up
- With an MC Value of 0 the DOW FUTURES market is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION market state.  Given this information, we know to expect a sideways, choppy trade within the Critical Range.  After the R Level was taken out early in the session, traders should have looked to SELL any corrective rallies back up to the DIR where our R Level was.  The SELL R FADE strategy worked on two different occasions, at 9 A.M. and again at 11 A.M. making it back down to the lower end of our Critical range at the DP on both trades.

NASDAQ 100

Today's MARKET STATE for NASDAQ 100 **NEUTRAL POSITIVE SHIFT**

-Technically the MKT  Key off the R LEVEL sentiment bias level as this is a “tell” to the market’s true intentions.  On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT strategies only if they are in line with the R LEVEL sentiment bias.  The best opportunities will occur early in the session and will maintain negative structure in a steady deterioration or “pisser”.  UP REVERSAL can be profitable as false positive signals are typical in this trade state.  Keep aggressive position management.

- On the BUY side DP and DIR FADE strategies are advisable if they are in line with the R LEVEL bias or after the previous session high point has been violated.  DP REVERSAL strategies are only recommended if the R LEVEL is below the DP.  The idea is that any negative signal is a sign that the transitional trade is over and a shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected.  UP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive.  Risk less, go for more.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for ND

Wrap Up
- Today in the NASDAQ 100 market, the Critical Range proved very effective in defining the expected trading range for the session.  With the R LEVEL at the DP, our market commentary tells us to key off this level and accept BUY DP FADE strategies, which are in-line with our Sentiment Bias.  Around 10:30 the market has a sharp sell off, stabilizing at the DP and allowing traders to execute the BUY DP FADE strategy that we were looking for in today's market state.  This trade worked immediately, building higher move highs and higher move lows throughout the rest of the session until eventually closing the day close to the UP.