NATURAL GAS

Today's MARKET STATE NATURAL GAS **BULL TREND ACCELERATION**


- Technically the MKT has produced a big positive signal. On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off the UP and +c. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area.  Avoid SELL UP FADE strategies even with confirmation. SELL DP BREAKOUT strategies are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against the DIR.
- On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the previous session’s low point. UP BREAKOUT strategies should just "go", so do not risk much. Be wary of these strategies early in the session and look to exit on the 1st break in structure.  BUY DP FADE strategies are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for NG

Wrap Up
Today was a "money day" in the NATURAL GAS futures market.  The MC Value of +5 produces a BULL TREND ACCELERATION market state.  Coming into the session, our expectation is for the market to build positive structure throughout the session making higher move highs and higher move lows if the market is going to perform to expectations.  In a TRENDING market environment, our optimal MARKET TACTIC is the MA crossover signal that generated the "BUY" confirmation.  Also, notice how the MA "band" acts as support for the advance.  At 8:00 am CT the market gave us a BUY UP BREAKOUT opportunity allowing JS Traders to get long the market on the breakout.  The market maintained positive structure throughout the entire session, surpassing our profit target at the UT2 before finally running into resistance at the UT3.  This was a huge day for our traders in the NATURAL GAS market and it was all made possible by three things: MARKET STATE, STRUCTURE and STRATEGY.

CRUDE OIL

Today's MARKET STATE CRUDE OIL **BULL TREND**


- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CL

Wrap Up
Today we had an interesting setup in the CRUDE OIL futures market.  With an MC Value of +5 the MKT produced a BULL TREND signal.  However, the analyst called the markets bluff by placing the R Level at the minor level above the UP, signalling to traders that the opportunity was to the downside below the R.  The market opened up within the Critical Range and then began to sell off sharply during the morning session.  By trading below the DP, the market offered JS Traders a SELL DP BREAKOUT opportunity, targeting the DT2.  Maintaining negative structure along with monitoring the moving average crossover tactic was the key in today's session.  The faster MA crossed below the slower MA giving us confirmation to accept the SELL BREAKOUT strategy.  Also notice that the market maintained negative structure and found resistance at the "moving average band" throughout the decline.  The market eventually achieved are downside target at the DT2 around 11:00 am CT.

S&P 500

Today's MARKET STATE S&P 500 **BULL TREND**


- The MKT has just produced a big positive technical signal. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are a low probability but valid. Risk little and go for a lot. If the MKT is going to turn sour, it should be quick and relentless. Avoid UP FADE strategies as the MKT has just produced a major buy signal and fresh gains are expected. UP REVERSAL strategies as well are not recommended, as any resistance level violation that cannot be held is more likely a squeeze for the longs, which can quickly turn positive.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is aggressively bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, leverage up using the squeeze low as a stop, expecting a quick reaction back above your original entry. De-leverage unless you have confluence with other indicators or like MKTs.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP

Wrap Up

Today was a perfect example of how to bank profits even when the market does not perform to expectations.  The S&P 500 futures produced a BULL TREND market state and the expectation is for a continuation of the positive structure as the market grinds higher.  With the R Level at the DIR, the analyst is saying that if we are going to get follow through on the BULL TREND signal, the market should remain firm above the DIR and just "go". A break in this level negated the positive sentiment and a breakdown from our level of Support at the DP would signal a negative transition.  As it played out, the market built NEGATIVE structure throughout the session and allowed us to utilize our HEDGE TACTIC (MA crossover) to confirm the SELL DP BREAKOUT trade.  The market continued to put in lower highs and lower lows until eventually reaching our downside target at the DT2.

GOLD

Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**

- MKT sentiment is leaning negative and will outweigh the buy side if the integrity of the previous session high remains intact.
- On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current negative transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on DP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for positive reactions after a negative signal to FADE the DIR.
- On the BUY side avoid DP FADE strategies until after the previous session high point has been taken out. Until then, a better opportunity will be a DP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a positive shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. UP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for GC

Wrap Up

A negative transition is what we expected, and a negative transition is what traders got today in the GOLD Futures.  With an MC Value of -2 and a NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION Market State, traders know that the market has the potential to be the start of a big directional move.  The R Level at the UP told traders that the opportunity was on the short side of this market below the R Level.  The Moving Average crossover tactic confirmed the SELL DP BREAKOUT trade as the market continued to build negative structure and the faster 21-period SMA remained below the 55-period SMA.  Both MA tactic and negative structure held true throughout the session as traders were able to ride the big sell-off down to the expected price target at the DT2.

CRUDE OIL

Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME**

- The MKT will need to spark some excitement today if it is to avoid falling back into a digestive trade.
- On the Sell side REVERSAL strategies off the UP, UT1 or UT2 will work best as any unsustained positive signal is expected to provide a sharp negative reaction. FADE strategies off the UP are valid but will work better after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area. BREAKOUT strategies below the DP are a lower probability and should be used as a signal for a FADE strategy against the DIR.
- On the Buy side FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the DP, especially if the previous session low point remains intact.  BREAKOUT strategies should hold structure after a resistance breach if they are going to follow through. Any break in momentum and the market will be vulnerable to a drop back into a digestive trade.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CL

 

Wrap Up

Today in the CRUDE OIL futures market, the MC Value of +3 produced a NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME Market State.  If the market is going to avoid falling back into a DIGESTIVE posture, it should just "go" and not look back after trading above the R LEVEL at the UP.  Below this level, the market is prone to a digestive session.  As highlighted in out market commentary, BUY DP FADE and REVERSALS are recommended.  The market put in an intra-day double bottom formation at our minor level 95.94 while the RSI showed underlying strength as it put in a HIGHER low on the 2nd bottom.  This was our "tell" to accept the BUY DP REVERSAL strategy targeting the DIR.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE for AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR **BULL TREND**

- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA

 







 

Wrap Up

- In a BULL TREND market state, the market should continue to build positive structure if it is going to indeed follow through on the bull trend signal.  After breaking positive structure with a new move low, the bull trend signal is negated and traders should lean on their OPTIMAL HEDGE TACTIC.  The sentiment remains positive above the R Level and any corrective sell off is a valid BUY opportunity ABOVE THE R.  The RSI indicator warned of the positive reaction to come when it put in a BULLISH DIVERGENCE at our KEY INFLECTION PIVOT.  This allowed traders to get long the market from the R Level and capitalize on the positive reaction.

S&P 500

Today's MARKET STATE for S&P 500 **BULL TREND**

- Technically the MKT is in a positive posture and as long as it continues to hold structure, further gains should be expected.  If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long.
- On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM

 

Wrap Up

- With an MC Value +4 the S&P is in a BULL TREND and the expectation is for the market to continue to build positive structure, making higher move highs and higher move loves.  After the market sold off rapidly in the overnight session, the positive structure had been broken, signalling traders to lean on the OPTIMAL HEDGE TACTIC.  By monitoring the RSI indicator, traders were able to spot the BULLISH DIVERGENCE occurring as the price made new lows that failed to be confirmed by the indicator.  This signal coincided with our KEY INFLECTION PIVOT at the R Level which allowed traders to get long the market from the R Level and ride the trade up to the DIR.