Tuesday, April 2, 2013

GOLD

Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**

- MKT sentiment is leaning negative and will outweigh the buy side if the integrity of the previous session high remains intact.
- On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current negative transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on DP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for positive reactions after a negative signal to FADE the DIR.
- On the BUY side avoid DP FADE strategies until after the previous session high point has been taken out. Until then, a better opportunity will be a DP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a positive shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. UP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.


Today's PRICE MAP Performance for GC














Wrap Up

A negative transition is what we expected, and a negative transition is what traders got today in the GOLD Futures.  With an MC Value of -2 and a NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION Market State, traders know that the market has the potential to be the start of a big directional move.  The R Level at the UP told traders that the opportunity was on the short side of this market below the R Level.  The Moving Average crossover tactic confirmed the SELL DP BREAKOUT trade as the market continued to build negative structure and the faster 21-period SMA remained below the 55-period SMA.  Both MA tactic and negative structure held true throughout the session as traders were able to ride the big sell-off down to the expected price target at the DT2.

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