S&P 500

Today's MARKET STATE S&P 500 **BULL TREND**


- The MKT has just produced a big positive technical signal. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are a low probability but valid. Risk little and go for a lot. If the MKT is going to turn sour, it should be quick and relentless. Avoid UP FADE strategies as the MKT has just produced a major buy signal and fresh gains are expected. UP REVERSAL strategies as well are not recommended, as any resistance level violation that cannot be held is more likely a squeeze for the longs, which can quickly turn positive.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is aggressively bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, leverage up using the squeeze low as a stop, expecting a quick reaction back above your original entry. De-leverage unless you have confluence with other indicators or like MKTs.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for SP

Wrap Up

Today was a perfect example of how to bank profits even when the market does not perform to expectations.  The S&P 500 futures produced a BULL TREND market state and the expectation is for a continuation of the positive structure as the market grinds higher.  With the R Level at the DIR, the analyst is saying that if we are going to get follow through on the BULL TREND signal, the market should remain firm above the DIR and just "go". A break in this level negated the positive sentiment and a breakdown from our level of Support at the DP would signal a negative transition.  As it played out, the market built NEGATIVE structure throughout the session and allowed us to utilize our HEDGE TACTIC (MA crossover) to confirm the SELL DP BREAKOUT trade.  The market continued to put in lower highs and lower lows until eventually reaching our downside target at the DT2.

GOLD

Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION**

- MKT sentiment is leaning negative and will outweigh the buy side if the integrity of the previous session high remains intact.
- On the SELL side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current negative transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on DP BREAKOUT strategies as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for positive reactions after a negative signal to FADE the DIR.
- On the BUY side avoid DP FADE strategies until after the previous session high point has been taken out. Until then, a better opportunity will be a DP REVERSAL strategy. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a positive shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. UP BREAKOUT strategies can be profitable but they are aggressive. Risk less, go for more.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for GC

Wrap Up

A negative transition is what we expected, and a negative transition is what traders got today in the GOLD Futures.  With an MC Value of -2 and a NEUTRAL DIGESTION TRANSITION Market State, traders know that the market has the potential to be the start of a big directional move.  The R Level at the UP told traders that the opportunity was on the short side of this market below the R Level.  The Moving Average crossover tactic confirmed the SELL DP BREAKOUT trade as the market continued to build negative structure and the faster 21-period SMA remained below the 55-period SMA.  Both MA tactic and negative structure held true throughout the session as traders were able to ride the big sell-off down to the expected price target at the DT2.

CRUDE OIL

Today's MARKET STATE for CRUDE OIL **NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME**

- The MKT will need to spark some excitement today if it is to avoid falling back into a digestive trade.
- On the Sell side REVERSAL strategies off the UP, UT1 or UT2 will work best as any unsustained positive signal is expected to provide a sharp negative reaction. FADE strategies off the UP are valid but will work better after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area. BREAKOUT strategies below the DP are a lower probability and should be used as a signal for a FADE strategy against the DIR.
- On the Buy side FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the DP, especially if the previous session low point remains intact.  BREAKOUT strategies should hold structure after a resistance breach if they are going to follow through. Any break in momentum and the market will be vulnerable to a drop back into a digestive trade.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for CL

 

Wrap Up

Today in the CRUDE OIL futures market, the MC Value of +3 produced a NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME Market State.  If the market is going to avoid falling back into a DIGESTIVE posture, it should just "go" and not look back after trading above the R LEVEL at the UP.  Below this level, the market is prone to a digestive session.  As highlighted in out market commentary, BUY DP FADE and REVERSALS are recommended.  The market put in an intra-day double bottom formation at our minor level 95.94 while the RSI showed underlying strength as it put in a HIGHER low on the 2nd bottom.  This was our "tell" to accept the BUY DP REVERSAL strategy targeting the DIR.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Today's MARKET STATE for AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR **BULL TREND**

- The MKT has a firm tone and as long as the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long. On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for DA

 







 

Wrap Up

- In a BULL TREND market state, the market should continue to build positive structure if it is going to indeed follow through on the bull trend signal.  After breaking positive structure with a new move low, the bull trend signal is negated and traders should lean on their OPTIMAL HEDGE TACTIC.  The sentiment remains positive above the R Level and any corrective sell off is a valid BUY opportunity ABOVE THE R.  The RSI indicator warned of the positive reaction to come when it put in a BULLISH DIVERGENCE at our KEY INFLECTION PIVOT.  This allowed traders to get long the market from the R Level and capitalize on the positive reaction.

S&P 500

Today's MARKET STATE for S&P 500 **BULL TREND**

- Technically the MKT is in a positive posture and as long as it continues to hold structure, further gains should be expected.  If the integrity of the previous session low remains intact, look for excuses to get long.
- On the SELL side UP FADE strategies are valid but profit targets and risk management should be tight.  REVERSAL strategies should be applied only at the UP and +c after an exhaustive signal. Use DP BREAKOUT strategies as a signal to FADE a positive reaction against the DIR. Only until the MKT breaks the positive structure are sell signals an opportunity.
- On the BUY side BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL are recommended as the MKT is bid and all buy signals are valid opportunity. If stopped out at or near the low tic of a reaction and the MKT is not following through to the downside, look to re-enter using the recent squeeze low as a stop. If the MKT breaks structure, de-leverage and be more selective as the likelihood of a sideways trade is high.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM

 

Wrap Up

- With an MC Value +4 the S&P is in a BULL TREND and the expectation is for the market to continue to build positive structure, making higher move highs and higher move loves.  After the market sold off rapidly in the overnight session, the positive structure had been broken, signalling traders to lean on the OPTIMAL HEDGE TACTIC.  By monitoring the RSI indicator, traders were able to spot the BULLISH DIVERGENCE occurring as the price made new lows that failed to be confirmed by the indicator.  This signal coincided with our KEY INFLECTION PIVOT at the R Level which allowed traders to get long the market from the R Level and ride the trade up to the DIR.

DOW FUTURES

Today's MARKET STATE for DOW FUTURES **BULL TREND CORRECTION**

- The MKT has produced a negative signal against an underlying positive trend. On the SELL side accept UP FADE signals on the 1st press into the area only. REVERSAL strategies should only be done off the UP or the previous session high point and will immediately work if they are going to. Keep position and risk management tight on these trades. SELL DIR and DP BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive but do have potential to be the start of a larger corrective turn. Keep risk management tight.
- On the BUY side accept REVERSAL signals off all major inflection levels, expecting the underlying positive momentum to resume. DP FADE strategies will work better with confirmation as the MKT is in a corrective state and will be probing lower, looking for soft spots. Work any BUY DIR and UP BREAKOUT strategies as any positive shift in momentum has the potential to be the start of the next leg higher. DIR FADE strategies after the UP Breakout should use greater leverage.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for YM

 

Wrap Up

- After producing a negative technical signal, the DOW FUTURES had an MC Value of +1 and a BULL TREND CORRECTION market state.  The R Level at the DIR identifies this as the key inflection pivot for the session.  If the market opens up below the R Level and respects that level, the corrective trade remains in play.  However, the market opened up slightly above the R Level, signaling the opportunity was to the up side above this level.  More than likely a digestive trading day is expected unless the market gives a BREAKOUT signal from the UP, in which case a continuation of the underlying BULL TREND should be anticipated.  As it played out, the market did take on a digestive posture, giving traders the opportunity to get long from the DIR and take profits at the UP.

EURO CURRENCY

Today's MARKET STATE for EURO CURRENCY **NEUTRAL DIGESTION**

- The MKT has a slight negative bias in a difficult "choppy" trade. On the SELL side DP BREAKOUT strategies are valid but should expect a laborious trade.  UP and UT1 FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended but profit should be taken at initial targets. The probability is to the downside today but is not a day to press it.
- On the BUY side avoid UP BREAKOUT strategies but rather FADE a negative reaction after a positive breakout signal at the DIR. DP REVERSAL strategies are recommended over FADE strategies as "sloppy" trading conditions are expected. Any DP FADE trades should get confirmation before executing. Position management adjustments should be anticipated for all longs as sideways trading conditions can quickly erase profits.

Today's PRICE MAP Performance for EU

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wrap Up

- Today in the EURO CURRENCY, our optimal HEDGE TACTIC gave traders the needed confidence to get short the market from the DP with a SELL DP BREAKOUT strategy targeting the DT2.  The market was in a NEUTRAL DIGESTION, lending itself to a sideways trading environment within the Critical Range.  However, a break in the structural support at the DP signalled traders to lean on the moving average crossover tactic.  This SELL DP BREAKOUT signal was in line with our Sentiment Bias (R), as well as our MA crossover tactic.  Having been short the market from the DP, traders were given the opportunity to realize profits on the trade when the market came within tics of our profit objective at the DT2.