DOW FUTURES - TIGHT ROPE

The MKT is pressing into an exhaustive extreme and is vulnerable to a corrective trade. Respect positive structure but be ready to roll with any negative turn expecting a play for the 11080 Inflection Pivot. Key off the 11221 resistance inflection for the upside exhaustion signal.

On the Sell side REVERSAL strategies off the 11221 and 11315 resistance levels will work best as any unsustained positive signal is expected to provide a sharp negative reaction. FADE strategies against 11221 are valid but will work better after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area. BREAKOUT strategies below 11127 are a lower probability but do have the potential to provide an emotional release down to 11080 and 10962.

On the Buy side FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off 11127 and 11080. BREAKOUT strategies above the 11221 resistance pivot should hold structure after a resistance breach if they are going to follow through. Any break in momentum and the market will be vulnerable to drop back into a digestive trade.

Note: The MKT has stalled and may need a session or two to catch its breath or it already has. Keep an open mind and let the MKT tell you was is.

JS

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EUREX BUND - MIXED SIGNALS

The MKT is holding firm but remains in a corrective posture down to the 12345 Inflection Pivot. This is the low point for any setback if the underlying tone is going to remain positive.

On the SELL side accept FADE signals against the 12419 resistance pivot only on the 2nd or 3rd confirmation. REVERSAL strategies should only be done off 12419 or the previous session high point at 12431 and will immediately work if they are going to. Keep position and risk management tight on these trades. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 12345 will work better as a signal for a FADE of Directional resistance at 12390 with profit targets at the 12361 support area. The underlying tone is positive and negative follow through is not expected.

On the BUY side accept REVERSAL signals off all major inflection levels, expecting the underlying positive momentum to resume. FADE strategies off ther 12361 and 12345 support Inflection Pivot will work better with confirmation as the MKT is in a corrective state and will be probing lower looking for soft spots. Work any BUY BREAKOUT strategies above the 12419 resistance pivot as any positive shift in momentum has the potential to be the start of the next leg higher.

Note: The MKT is in a corrective position and sharp negative sell offs are not expected to follow through. If after a break the MKT stabilizes and starts to build structure, look for buy opportunities and work it until that structure is broken.

JS

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EuroFX - PULL THE RUG

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND ACCELERATION position and is vulnerable to the offer with all trading below the 13522 Inflection Pivot. Any positive corrective action is expected to be short lived with only one upside "stop squeeze" if the negative moemtnum is going to play out. Any held strength and repeated probe higher is a sign that the trade will turn digestive. This does not take away from the negative bias but does limit the profit potential for any new sales in the session.

On the SELL side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies below the previous sessions high point. BREAKOUT strategies below the 13327 support pivot should just "go", so do not risk much. FADE strategies against 13457 resisstance and the 13522 Inflection Pivot are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold lower structure and any momentum shift should be considered a potential positive corrective turn.

On the BUY side avoid REVERSAL strategies off major support levels as these signals are more likely short squeeze rallies and opportunities to SELL into and FADE. BREAKOUT strategies above 13457 and 13522 are a long shot, so risk less and go for more. Any BUY FADE should have confirmation and are not recommended if the integrity of the previous session high is intact. After a break in the negative structure confirmed support levels can be used for short term reactions using aggressive position management.

Note: The MKT is in an aggressive sell posture. If the previous session high is intact its just a matter of time before the sellers try to overwhelm the MKT. Look for excuses to get short. If the previous session high is breached opportunity will be on both sides of the MKT, however the bias still rests with the Bears.

JS

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USDJPY - BACK ON THE FENCE

The USDJPY is trying to make a difference set to press good directional resistance at the 9385-9354 resistance band. If the currency is going to find religion it will in this zone. Jump on any negative REVERSAL signals in this or against this price band expecting a sharp rejection back down to 9238 with the potential of sending the MKT as low as 9091 on the move.

A held trade above 9372 must be confirmed above 9385 to confirm a positive shift. Roll with this signal buying any setbacks down to 9296 with the expectation that this is the beginning of the next leg higher targeting 9548 and 9780 on the move.

JS

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GBPUSD - NEGATIVE SIGNAL NEEDS CONFIRMATION

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND and has produced a negative signal. The MKT is vulnerable and all sell signals should be considered belowthe 15383 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept all BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL signals. If the MKT produces a BREAKOUT signal below the 15135 support pivot early in the session it should just "go" and not look back. Beware of any break in early negative structure, as a corrective rally up to resistance is a likely scenario. Be selective and wait for an exhaustive signal to re-enter to avoid selling the corrective rally all the way up to your "ideal" sell points but with no confidence left or dry powder. Practice good size management on this move accepting sell signals but leveraging up at the resistance turning points. Anticipate a price "zone" around a major resistance points at 15383 and 15476 to FADE. Have a plan and be ready. If your stop gets hit and the MKT does not immediately follow through, consider re-entering, even doubling up if there is structure to define low risk. Follow any corrective rise with a REVERSAL strategy. Expectations are for the negative signal to follow through even if it does in the last hour.

On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies can be executed off of the 15135 support pivot but preferably after an emotional sell off early in the session. This is an aggressive strategy and any profits should be realized at the previous support failure points. Expectations should be for an immediate "V" bottom turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area or a gradual rise with higher lows after a lower exhaustive signal. Avoid FADE BUYS even with confirmation, as this is more likely a plateau for a BREAKOUT SELL strategy. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above 15383 are not recommended but do have a better chance of succeeding than a FADE.

Note: The MKT has produced a negative signal and should follow through with authority from the get go if it is serious. If not expect some starts and stops. Be patient and wait for opportunity. As soon as the MKT starts to look "good", its time dial in your sell strategies, especially if the integrity of the previous session high point remains intact. Above the previous session high point and all negative bets are off.

JS

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VIX - EXCITABLE

The VIX has been waiting for an excuse to jump and it got it on Friday.

Real deal?

With the short end of the Yield curve jumping you can smell the fear.

The Equities have plenty of room to move without altering the underlying positive sentiment. For now all the major indices are vulnerable to further losses with the VIX expected to tighten a few collars. Keep tight position management and watch the short end of the curve to stall for a signal that the sky is not falling.

Nikkei225 has the potentail to be one of the bigger losers for any negative follow through to Friday's action.

Gold sold off but could not turn its underlying technicals to the downside.

Crude Oil flip flopped last week and should have rallied if it was going to. This MKT is vulnerable to a few dollar drop.

The Dollar is ready for some big sideways action so avoid making any commitments.

Commodities are firm and are expected to inflate.

Good Trading

JS

30YR US T-Bond - TRYING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE

Technically the MKT is in a NEUTRAL DIGESTIVE position with a positive bias above the 116-07 Inflection Pivot. Opportunity exists on both sides of the MKT but buying weakness above here is the better opportunity.

On the SELL side BREAKOUT strategies below 116-07 or the 115-18 support pivot are aggressive and should be entered sooner [higher] than later [lower]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding structure most of the day. If the MKT digests prior to making a negative move, it is more likely a squeeze on the longs to FADE. SELL FADE strategies against the 116-28 resistance pivot are aggressive as well and if they are going to work, should do so on the initial test of resistance. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a higher trade. SELL REVERSAL strategies at 116-28 are recommended off the session initial major resistance levels only as the MKT potential for positive trend shift. The probability is to the upside today so don't get stubborn selling strength.

On the BUY side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. BUY BREAKOUT strategies above the 116-28 resistance pivot should just "go" and not look back, so keep risk parameters tight. FADE strategies off the 116-07 level after positive breakout signals are good opportunities as well but expectation should be for the MKT to quickly move back above violated resistance. If the trade just "hangs around", it is likely a signal that more digestive action is coming and a retest of support should be expected. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at the 115-18 support pivot or above the previous session low point, targeting the opposing digestive resistance at 116-28. Below the previous session low point, entering after the 2nd or 3rd test of support is recommended over stepping in front.

Note: The MKT is in neutral so "sloppy" conditions with "false signals" should be anticipated. Have a plan for any squeeze. Don't get stubborn, however, if the MKT starts to hold structure and gets into trend mode as the contract may just be expanding its digestive parameters producing a one way trade into the close and new extreme.

JS

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