FOREX - EURUSD - BEAR TREND CORRECTION

FOREX EURUSD - BEAR TREND CORRECTION

Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND CORRECTION and has yet to confirm a break in momentum. Positive corrective action today will need some support if it is going to have much staying power, as the negative momentum remains a threat.

Key off the 14373 Inflection Pivot for the session bias.

On the SELL side accept REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies. Downside BREAKOUT strategies below 14373 should just "go" with expectations that the negative momentum is going to resume course targeting 14257. If there is more than one pullback after a downside breakout it is more likely that the corrective rally is about to resume. FADE strategies against the 14489 resistance pivot should wait for confirmation as the MKT is correcting and has the potential to be "stop and go" as it probes higher. Keep profit targets tight. A better strategy is a REVERSAL strategy, as a violation of a major inflection point that cannot be held is a negative turning point signal with the potential to be the resumption of the negative trend.

On the BUY side REVERSAL strategies off the 14373 Inflection Pivot will work best with the expectations targeting a new corrective high. Avoid BREAKOUT strategies above 14489 but rather FADE negative reactions off structure after a positive signal. If the corrective trade is going to continue targeting 14593, it should hold structure and maintain a trade above 14373. Once it doesn't its time to roll the other direction.

Note: Although the MKT is in a BEAR TREND the current CORRECTION has the potential to be the start of a positive turn. Don't get stuck in sell strength mode looking to "pick a top" against a structured rise. Rather go with it or wait for the momentum to be broken to jump on the BEAR TREND.

JS

This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

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USDJPY - PRESSING THE POSITIVE TURNING POINT

FOREX - USDJPY ** NEUTRAL POSITIVE EXTREME **


The MKT is pressing the upper edge of its neutral digestion at the 9164 resistance pivot and will need to generate a positive push today if it is to avoid falling back into a corrective trade.


On the Sell side REVERSAL strategies off the 9164 and 9241 levels will work best as any false positive signal is expected to provide a sharp negative reaction. FADE strategies off the 9164 level are valid but will work better after the 2nd or 3rd press into an area. BREAKOUT below the 9010 support Inflection Pivot are a lower probability and should be used as a signal for a FADE strategy against the 9087 Directional resistance.


On the Buy side FADE and REVERSAL strategies are recommended off the 9087 and 9010 pivotal levels, especially if the previous session low point remains intact. BREAKOUT strategies above 9164 should hold structure after a resistance breach if they are going to follow through targeting 9318 and 9434. Any break in momentum and the market will be vulnerable to drop back into a digestive trade.


Note: The MKT may need a session or two to catch its breath. Keep an open mind and let the MKT tell you was is.



JS

This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Reviewhttp://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

CORN H'10 - NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME

** NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME **



Technically the MAR'10 CORN market is at an extreme and is ready to either pop back into a firm neutral posture or break into a new down trend. Key off the 397-6 Inflection Pivot for an indication of the session tone.




On the SELL side BREAKOUT strategies below 391-2 should be worked as repeated tests of support are expected to give way to negative follow through. This strategy is vulnerable to the market, expanding its lower support band in a series of starts and stops. FADE strategies against 397-6 and 404-2 should expect an immediate reaction as any held trade or violation of major resistance foreshadows a potential turning point and an opportunity to "roll" into a long position when stopped out.



On the BUY side FADE and REVERSAL strategies off the 391-2 support pivot are qualified, however the FADE is a lower probability. REVERSALS off of this support can risk more but should also go for more profit with the expectation of a turning point "key reversal" signal to play out. BREAKOUT strategies above 404-2 are aggressive and should just "go" and not look back. Risk less and go for more. A laborious lackluster rise after a positive breakout is a sign that the MKT is more likely expanding its resistance lid for a new consolidation versus transition from negative to positive technical posture.

JS

This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Reviewhttp://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

EuroStoxx H'10 - BULL TREND ACCELERATION

** BULL TREND ACCELERATION **

Technically the MKT is in a BULL TREND ACCELERATION posture and has produced a big positive signal. The MKT should maitain a trade above the 2883 Inflection Pivot and "run" to a new level if the signal is valid.

On the SELL side REVERSAL strategies can be executed at the 2971 and 3076 resistance levels following an exhaustive signal. Expectations should be for an immediate exhaustive turn with the MKT quickly moving away from the area. A gradual decline following a reversal signal and it is more likely just a pause before another round of buying, so lock in any unrealized gains. SELL FADE strategies against 2953 and 2971 have potential but wait for repeated tests, with the best opportunity not violating the resistance level. Consider rolling long on any stops with this strategy. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below 2883 are not recommended but can be used as a signal for a FADE against Directional resistance.

On the BUY side accept FADE, REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies above the 2883 Inflection Pivot. BREAKOUT strategies above 2953 early in the session may have issues holding structure, so respect any break in momentum. BUY FADE strategies off 2883 are recommended over REVERSAL strategies as the MKT is expected to hold higher structure and any failure should be considered a potential negative corrective shift. The MKT is aggressively bid which should keep pace throughout the session if the TREND ACCELERATION forecast is going to play out.

Note: The worst-case scenario for a MKT in this technical position is to go higher early in the session and then break all day. Be alert and recognize this. If you have > 3 loser long trades, consider taking the next sell signal, anticipating a corrective turn. Remember in this technical position if the MKT is going higher, it should just go. If not, there is the potential for a corrective break or digestive trading environment.

JS

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Australian Dollar H'10 - NEGATIVE SHIFT

** NEUTRAL NEGATIVE EXTREME **

The MAR'10 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR futures contract is on the offer and pressing into the lower extreme for its current digestive pattern and remains on edge below the 9015 Inflection Pivot.

On the SELL side accept REVERSAL strategies over FADE within the 9015-8988 area and 9128 resistance level expecting a return to a trend less trading environment rather than a new negative trend move. Avoid BREAKOUT strategies below 8881 and 8812 but rather FADE into a positive reaction after a negative breakdown signal. The MKT is extended and will have trouble sustaining any new weakness. Use aggressive position management and anticipate potential early exit points to reduce profit give-back.

On the BUY side FADE and REVERSAL strategies off the 8881 and 8812 major support base are qualified however the FADE is a lower probability and should use tight risk criteria. REVERSALs can risk more but should also go for more profit with the expectation of the MKT putting in a short term turning point signal. BREAKOUT strategies above 9015 are aggressive and should just "go" and not look back. Risk less, use aggressive position management and conservative profit limits.

Note: The MKT is in neutral at a technical extreme. Early weakness has the potential to be a good positive REVERSAL opportunity so have a plan and be prepared on any major support failures that happen at the beginning of the session. Remember as well that just because the MKT is extended to the downside does not mean it can get more extended, targeting just below where you would put your stop on any longs.

JS

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

NAT GAS - POSITIVE TRANSITION

** JAN'10 NAT GAS - NEUTRAL TRANSITION **
The MKT is in a NEUTRAL TRANSITION technical posture with the potential for a positive turn. Opportunity exists on both sides however there is a better chance of acceleration to the upside if the integrity of the 5.134 Inflection Pivot remains intact.

On the SELL side avoid FADE strategies until after the 5.134 level has been broken to confirm a shift in momentum. Until then a better opportunity will be a REVERSAL strategy but only off the 5.440 resistance level. This is a one shot trade using a low risk big profit target criteria. The idea is that the transition trade is over and a negative shift back into a NEUTRAL DIGESTION is expected. SELL BREAKOUT strategies under 5.134 can be profitable but they are aggressive and should use the same aggressive position management as a REVERSAL. Risk less go for more.

On the BUY side accept BREAKOUT, FADE and REVERSAL strategies with the expectation that the current negative to positive transition will continue. Keep aggressive position management on BREAKOUT strategies above 5.440 as the MKT is still in the neutral zone and has yet to commit to a new trend. A more conservative strategy would be to wait for negative reactions after a positive signal to FADE against 5.287 or 5.134. The trade should be fluid with the MKT immediately taking back lost ground after any downside squeeze.

Note: The MKT is trying to shift from a negative to a positive trend position. False starts and stops should be expected and position management adjustment anticipated, as quick momentum turns are the norm in this technical environment.


JS

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.