BRITISH POUND Z'09 - PRESSING THE LOWER EXTREME

The Dec'09 BRITISH POUND is on edge and pressing it lower support extreme at 15755. If the MKT is going to stabilize it will not spend much time if any below this support Inflection. Only under 15687 is the current weakness able to overwhelm the senses forecasting further losses down to 15443 and 15267 on any negative follow through.

A held trade above 15803 and the currency has the potential to close higher on the day and challenging the 16045 Inflection Pivot. Only above this price point is a positive reversal confirmed with 16467 targeted.

JS

Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria.Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING - BULL TREND CORRECTION

Continuing with the BULL TREND CORRECTION focus the Currencies have provided us opportunity for this signal state. Each MKT presented has produced a negative signal against an underlying positive trend. Is this signal going to follow through to the downside or is this just an opportunity to re-enter a positively trending MKT.

* Please read the previous posts for the week on BULL TREND CORRECTION as well as the webvidoe tutorial links.

To answer this question we look at the MKTs behavioral state and the specific price point or inflection pivot where sentiment for the signal is confirmed or denied. Trading at this price point is optimal however aligning your signal acceptance to the sentiment bias in the BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state will enhance your performance.

For today, September 25 2009 - The following MKTs are in a BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state:

EU = EUROFX Dec'09 – 14681 Inflection Pivot

DA = Australian Dollar – 8534 Inflection Pivot

AUDJPY = Aussie / Yen – 7905 Inflection Pivot

EUROFX Z'09 - The MKT produced a negative signal against an underlying positiver trend and will remain in a BULL TREND CORRECTION technical state below the 14681 Inflection Pivot. If the negative action is going to continue the currency will struggle to maintain a trade above 14681. A failure from 14609 confirm fresh selling targeting 14517 on any negative follow through.

A held rise above 14681 removes the negative threat sparking a rally up to 14767. Stay nimble. This move does have potential to be the beginnings of a new leg higher however the Friday trade will most likely keep the trade digestive.

Australian$ z'09 - The MKT is expected to shrug off yesterday's negative signal with all trading above the 8534 Inflection Pivot. Keep a buy break bias above here expecting the positive momentum to remain in force. Only under 8534 does sentiment shift.


AUDJPY - The cross is trying to find its footing but will continue to struggle with all trading below the 7906 Inflection Pivot. This is the high point for any buying today if the negative corrective signal is going to remain in force. A rise above 7905 revives the aggressive buyers with 7958 the initial target. Work any sustain positive structure with expectations for a run at the recent move highs at 8006.



JS



Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria.


Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html


For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Strategy Based Trading - Bull Trend Correction Signal

Continuing with the BULL TREND CORRECTION focus the ETF sector indices have provided us with the most opportunity for this signal state. Each MKT presented has produced a negative signal against an underlying positive trend. Is this signal going to follow through to the downside or is this just an opportunity to re-enter a positively trending MKT. * Please read the previous posts for the week on BULL TREND CORRECTION as well as the webvidoe tutorial links.

To answer this question we look at the MKTs behavioral state and the specific price point or inflection pivot where sentiment for the signal is confirmed or denied. Trading at this price point is optimal however aligning your signal acceptance to the sentiment bias in the BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state will enhance your performance.


For today, September 24 2009 - The following MKTs are in a BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state:

ND = ND100 Index Dec'09 – 1706.75 Inflection Pivot
QQQQ = Power shares QQQ Trust – 42.01 Inflection Pivot
SPY = SP500 Index Dep Rcpt – 106.75 Inflection Pivot
SOX = PHLX Semiconductor Sector – 328.90 Inflection Pivot
BTK = Biotechnology Index – 960.33 Inflection Pivot
OSX = PHLX Oil Services Sector – 195.95 Inflection Pivot
XAL = AMEX Airline Index – 28.42 Inflection Pivot
AUDJPY = FOREX – 7962 Inflection Pivot

FUTURE
ND100 Z'09 – The Index produced a negative signal against a positive trend, which will remain in force above the 1706.75 Inflection Pivot. Above here any weakness is an opportunity to buy. A failure from 1706.75 is needed to confirm the negative signal and sentiment shift.

ETF
QQQQ - The Index produced a negative signal against a positive trend, which will remain in force above the 42.01 Inflection Pivot. Above here any weakness is an opportunity to buy. A failure from 42.01 is needed to confirm the negative signal and sentiment shift.

ETF
SOX - The Semiconductor Index posted a new move high close but settling at the low end of the range produced a negative corrective signal. Above the 328.90 Inflection Pivot it is all noise with the uptrend firmly in command. A break below 328.90 is needed to shift sentiment out of the aggressive buy posture into a neutral or transition posture.

ETF
BTK - The Biotechnology sector produced a negative signal against a positive trend and will remain vulnerable to further losses with all trading below the 960.33 Inflection Pivot. Only above here does the underlying positive momentum engage.

ETF
SPY - The SPYders posted a negative BULL TREND CORRECTION signal and will remain vulnerable to further losses below the 106.75 Inflection Pivot. A rise above 106.75 removes the threat with expectations for a firm neutral trade.

ETF
OSX – The Oil Services Sector Index posted a negative BULL TREND CORRECTION signal and will remain vulnerable to further losses below the 195.95 Inflection Pivot. A rise above 195.95 is needed to put the BULL TREND back in play.

ETF
XAL - The Airline Sector Index produced a negative signal against a positive trend, which will remain in force above the 28.42 Inflection Pivot. Above here any weakness is an opportunity to buy. A failure from 28.42 is needed to confirm the negative signal and sentiment shift.

FOREX
AUDJPY – The Aussie Yen is flirting with a sentiment shift below the 7962 Inflection Pivot. A held trade below here will keep the contract on edge and the BULL TREND CORRECTIVE signal in play. Only above 7962 is the signal negated and the currency set for a digestive trade.

The MKTs presented are "technically" in play, in a BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state, providing opportunity on both sides of the MKT. For MKTs above their Inflection Pivot [ND100, QQQQ, SOX, XAL] look for positive entry opportunities especially a REVERSAL entry strategy off support.

For MKTs below their Inflection Pivot [BTK, SPY, OSX, AUDJPY] all buy signals should use reduced size or not be accepted until the MKT is back above its Inflection Pivot. Once above the Inflection Pivot an aggressive buy position can be resumed with the expectation of the resumption of the positive trend. As long as the MKT is below the Inflection Pivot sell signals can be accepted, however it is a counter trend move so smaller size should be used.

JS

Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING - BEAR TREND CORRECTION

No BULL TREND CORRECTIVE signals today for the MKTs covered.

There where a couple BEAR TEND CORRECTION signals, which strategy wise are the mirror image of the BULL TREND CORRECTIVE signal.



The MKT has been in an underlying negative trend and has produced a positive signal against the trend. Question, is the positive signal going to following through in a transitional trade or revert back to a BEAR TREND mode.

The R Level Inflection Pivot will define the session behavioral state confirming or denying the positive signal. Above the R Inflection Pivot the Transitional trade is in play for a strong corrective buy opportunity. Below the R Inflection Pivot the contract is vulnerable to a return to the negative trend.

For today, September 23 2009 - The following MKTs are in a BEAR TREND CORRECTIVE state:

CL = CRUDE OIL Nov'09 - 71.30 Inflection Pivot

C= Corn Dec'09 - 3.240 Inflection Pivot

Crude Oil Dec'09

The Dec'09 CRUDE OIL contract produced a positive signal against a negative trend. If the signal is going to remain the play the MKT will continue to trade above the 71.30 Inflection pivot, flirting with a transitional shift into a more aggressive positive position. A held trade below 71.30 and the contract is vulnerable to a retreat down to the 67.00 support area.

Work BUY FADE opportunities off the the 71.30 level looking to REVERSE Short on a failure. This inflection point may be messy as the contract is in the middle of a big digestive range. Be aware an keep risk parameters wide to avoid the chop.
A BREAKOUT above yesterday's high at 72.00 will bring in fresh interest with 75.50 targeted.


CORN Dec'09
The Dec'09 CORN MKT produced a positive signal against a negative trend. If the positive signal is going to follow through it will maintain a trade above the 3.240 Inflection with the potential to take out the recent high at 3.480.

A held trade under 3.240 and the MKT is vulnerable to a return to the BEAR TREND pressing support at 3.100. If the contract is going to stabilize it will here. If not the sellers are expected to get aggressive.

Both MKTs are trading above their Inflection Pivots and expectations for both MKTs will be for positive follow through. Trading above the R Level Inflection Pivot should be from the long side. Only use REVERSAL entry strategies at higher resistance levels to initiate a short position, as the bias is to the plus side above the R Level Inflection Pivot.

Below the R Level Inflection Pivot be more aggressive with sell signals. Buy signals should be suspect as the positive momentum should have accelerated and if it does not, the likely hood of a sideways trade is high. Sales below the Inflection Pivot do have potential to be the high point for the next leg lower.

JS

Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Reviewhttp://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Strategy Based Trading - BULL TREND CORRECTION

Today and the rest of the week I'm going to continue to focus on MKTs that are in a BULL TREND CORRECTION technical state. A MKT in this position has an underlying positive trend but has produced a negative signal against that trend. This is a dynamic technical state with opportunity on both sides of the trade equation.

By developing a strategy to trade this state and apply only in MKTs that are producing negative signals against a positive trend or a BULL TREND CORRECTION, you not only improve your chances of a successful trade but also have a more satisfying trade experience as your strategy is align with your expectation.

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* Practical Application review for Sep 21,2009 BULL TREND CORRECTION MKTs click here http://www.jsservices.com/recaps/JSSReviewUTC92109.wmv

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For today, September 22 2009 - The following MKTs are in a BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state:
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SP = SP500 Index Dec'09 - 1069.25 Inflection Pivot
EMD = Mid Cap400 Index Dec'09 - 694.80 Inflection Pivot
EX = EUROSTOXX Dec'09 - 2870.0 Inflection Pivot
EU = EUROFX Dec'09 - 14695 Inflection Pivot
CD = Canadian$ Dec'09 - 9311 Inflection Pivot
ED1 = EURODOLLAR Dec'09 - 9951.5 Inflection Pivot
CC = Cocoa Z'09 - 3119 Inflection Pivot

SP500 Z'09 - At the time of this blog the Index is trading below its 1069.25 Inflection Pivot. The negative corrective sell signal will dominate MKT behavior below here. Below 1069.25 the 500 is vulnerable to further corrective action. A rise above 1069.25 and the underlying BULL TREND will try to make up for lost time and a strong advance should be expected.

EUROSTOXX Z'09 - The MKT settled just below the 2870 Inflection Pivot. Expect a dynamic trade around this price point. If the BULL TREND CORRECTION is going to continue lower the Index will not do much if any trading above 2870. If so the BULL TREND will try to re-establish itself. A held trade under 2870 and yesterday's lows are in jeopardy.

Mid Cap400 z'09 - The Mid Cap 400 Z'09 contract is currently above its 694.80 Inflection Pivot. If the BULL TREND is going to remain in effect the index will build a base above this price point for a fresh advance. A held break under 694.80 is needed to confirm the negative signal and further losses.

EUROFX Z'09 - The currency had a negative corrective signal but remains in a solid state above the 14695 Inflection Pivot. This is the low point for any weakness today if the underlying positive trend is going to remain unaltered. A break under this price point and yesterday's lows are in jeopardy.

Canadian$ Z'09 - The Canadian Dollar is also trading above its Inflection Pivot at 9311 after a negative corrective signal. Keep a positive outlook above this price point expecting a resurgence of the positive momentum. Only under 9311 does sentiment align with the negative technical signal for a new move lower.

EURODOLLAR Z'09 - The front month EURODOLLAR Z'09 is on its 9951.50 Inflection Pivot. Its "Hold or Fold" for this MKT. Continue the corrective trade or return to the BULL TREND.

COCOA Z'09 -The MKT remains vulnerable to further corrective action below the 3119 Inflection Pivot. Keep all signal acceptance in line expecting further losses below here. Only above this price point is the signal negated and the buyers back for another charge.

The MKTs presented are "technically" in play, in a BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state, providing opportunity of both sides of the MKT. In this trend position it is more likely that the MKT is going to move than not. Typical scenarios are either 1. Downside follow through on the negative signal, 2. Positive reversal and resumption of the underlying Bull Trend or 3. Sideways neutral digest. By using the Inflection Pivot as a sentiment guide, [Bull Trend resumption above, Negative Correction Below] you can optimize your strategy performance and capitalize on this technical signal state.

JS


Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review
http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html


For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.

Strategy Based Trading: BULL TREND CORRECTION

Strategy Based Trading is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market and looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.

STRATEGY BASED TRADING
http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html

Today I'm going to go over a BULL TREND CORRECTION technical state. A MKT in this position has an underlying positive trend but has produced a negative signal against that trend. This is a dynamic technical state with opportunity on both sides of the trade equation.

Sell signals can be accepted as the MKT has produced a negative signal and the potential for further "corrective" action can be expected. Sell signals are valid but will have a shorter profit objective as the trade is counter trend. Markets in this technical state tend to be "stop and go", with sharp counter trend reactions.

Buy signals are the still the better opportunity as they are in the direction of the underlying Trend bias. FADE and REVERSAL strategies off support are expected to be more successful over BREAKOUT strategies as the CORRECTIVE action will keep the trade “choppy”.

For today, September 21 2009

The following MKTs are in a BULL TREND CORRECTIVE state:

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BKX = KBW Bank Sector Index - 4817 R Level - Inflection Pivot

XOI = Oil and Gas Index - 1058 R Level - Inflection Pivot

LH = Live Hogs - Z'09 51275 R Level Inflection Pivot

CL = Crude Oil -X'09 73.16 R Level - Inflection Pivot

HO = Heating Oil - V'09 18088 R Level Inflection Pivot

RB = RBOB Gas - V'09 18580 R Level Inflection Pivot

GC = Gold - Z'09 - 992.50 R Level - Inflection Pivot

*

Each of these MKTs is technically in play with a negative corrective signal against an underlying positive trend. They are each individually going to either follow through on the negative signal, digest, or revert to the positive trend.

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Sell Strategies

Sell strategies should maintain an aggressive position management as the trade is counter trend. The MKT does have the potential to ultimately transition into a negative Bear Trend posture however the chances of this happening are lower and any break in the negative momentum will be an exit opportunity.

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Buy Strategies

Buy strategies can be a little more generous but should only be accepted after a positive sentiment shift. If so the chances of a positive acceleration back into a Bull Trend state are good.

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Behavioral Sentiment

The MKT's sentiment is determined by it's psychological turning point or INFLECTION PIVOT. This is the key price point to focus on for the BULL TREND CORRECTION strategy as it is at this price the sentiment will shift from a "corrective negative" to a "positive trend". Entering at or near this price will provide the best risk adjusted opportunity to participate in both buy and sell signals.

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R LEVEL

This Inflection Pivot is the Reversal or R LEVEL on the JS Services Price Map. This level provides a behavioral confirmation of the MKT's technical state.

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Summary

In summary if the MKT is trading below its Inflection Pivot the corrective trade is in play and must be respected. Avoid trying to pick a bottom as expectations are for the MKT to probe lower. A better strategy would be to enter using a REVERSAL entry strategy where the MKT 1st breaks below a major support level and then rallies back above the support and stabilizes. If the MKT is above its Inflection Pivot there is a good chance that the MKT will try to return to its positive trend state producing a sharp rise.

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By understanding the MKT's technical state you can align your strategy with expectation improving the likelihood that your strategy will succeed. In addition by using a defined behavioral inflection pivot as a confirmation of the technical signal state you can properly define the best risk adjusted trade opportunities.

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JS

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This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.

VIX - Fear Factor

The VIX is showing signs of resiliency here but will remain on the soft side below 24.29 down to 22.12. If MKT sentiment is going to turn it will here. If not the low volatility trend is set to continue with 15.81 the lower target.

A held rise above 24.29 brings some skeptics into the MKT for a premium increase up to 26.15. If the fear factor is going to deflate it will here. If not the potential for an emotional pop up to 28.92 and 30.48 is real. 34.57 is the high point for any controlled panic.

JS

This post supports JS Services Strategy Based Trading approach. For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary Trial.