Technically the MKT is in a BEAR TREND but in a DIGESTIVE posture. The MKT has produced a big negative signal but has yet to confirm a shift into trend mode. Look for excuses to get short below the 118-21 Inflection Pivot.
On the SELL side accept FADE, BREAKOUT and REVERSAL strategies off major inflection points. SELL BREAKOUT strategies below the 117-08 support pivot may need to be "worked" as the big negative signal will have the sellers excited. FADE strategies against the 117-31 Directional after a negative breakdown signal are good opportunities as well and can provide favorable area to put on leverage against structure. Be more aggressive with FADE and REVERSAL strategies at 118-21 or against the previous session high point targeting 117-08.
On the BUY side BREAKOUT strategies are aggressive and should be entered sooner [lower] than later [higher]. Expectations should be for the MKT to make its move early in the session and not look back, holding strucutre most of the day producing a positive "reversal" signal. If the MKT digests prior to making a positive move it is more likely a short squeeze to FADE. BUY FADE strategies off the 117-08 support pivot are aggressive and if they are going to work should do so on the initial test of support. Repeated tests or "confirmation" are more likely to give way to a lower trade. BUY REVERSAL strategies here are not recommended as any failure is confirmation of a negative trend shift. The probability is to the downside today so don't get stubborn buying breaks.
Note: The MKT has produced a big negative signal and is flirting with a turn for the worse. If it does not follow through on any new weakness it is more likely a nuetral shift than a positive one.
JS
This post supports the Strategy Based Trading, which is a methodology that focuses on the applied strategy verses a specific market. The approach looks to align strategies with markets whose current technical behavior matches the strategies criteria. Please review the following CME sponsored tutorial for a complete overview of this approach.
STRATEGY BASED TRADING Review http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/interactive/js_services/strategy_based_trading/index.html
For more information please contact me at info@jsservices.com. You can also visit http://www.jsservices.com/.The Inflection Pivot levels are available as a chart overlay on the following platforms; Ninja trader, Strategy Runner and eSignal. Sign up for a Complimentary FREE Trial.
