Market State: NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION
The Long Term forecast for the front month Crude Oil is $125 over the next 3 months. Currently the the MKT has yet to commit and is in a NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION market state with a higher expectation.
MARKET STATE
A NEUTRAL POSITIVE TRANSITION #NPT technical state has produced a positive technical signal from a Neutral position. Expectations are for this signal to follow through with the potential of being the beginning of a new BULL TREND move. The #NPT market state can present difficult trading conditions with false signals in both directions common. If the market is indeed going to transition high it should just “go” and maintain positive structure. If not, price action is more likely to shift into more of a sideways trade. REVERSAL and BREAKOUT strategies are recommended. Successful BREAKOUT strategies under these conditions are typically “one-shot” opportunities, using aggressive trail stops.
MARKET STRUCTURE
UP = 108.82
DIR = 106.92 [YELLOW DASH LINE]
DP R = 105.03
The the positive signal is in
“play” above the DP R Level. Expectations are for the MKT to create positive
trend structure above this price point. Currently MKT is trading @ the 106.92 DIRECTIONAL PIVOT (the YELLOW dash line in the image above). Use this technical level as a momentum trigger for the current price action. A BREAKOUT above the UP [UPSIDE PIVOT]
is needed to confirm any shift into a BULL TREND market state. Markets in
this state should just “go” and begin to trend higher. If not a sideways digestive trade is expected to develop. Only below the DP is the positive
signal negated.
